The World Cup 2026 knockout stages begin: is football coming home?

Europe and South America are overwhelmingly likely to provide the winner of the tournament – but there is a 3% chance of an African country lifting the trophy. Argentina remain by some distance the most probable champions, at 33%, followed by France and Spain, both at 12%, and England, at 9%.

Sixteen days, 72 matches and 215 goals later, the 2026 FIFA World Cup has reached the last 32 – the first knockout stage.

As is always the case, there was huge drama, even in unexpected places like Algeria against Austria, in Group J, the last group to finish. This was expected to be a tame no-score draw rather than the dramatic 3-3 outcome, in which the Austrians equalised with the last kick of the game.

After much speculation about who would play who in the last 32 from the original 48 teams that started the competition, all was resolved overnight as the 12 third-placed teams learned their fate. Iran’s was surely the most unfortunate, with late drama both in their own match, and in the one that eliminated them: Algeria’s draw with Austria, which took both teams through to the next round.

How has the line-up for the knockout stage matches turned out?

The prediction here that Groups K and L would be intensely intertwined turned out right: England, first in L, play Congo, third in L: the two groups’ second-placed teams, Croatia and Portugal, meet; and Colombia, first in K, play Ghana, third in L – covering three of the 16 first set of knockout ties.

These two groups’ outcomes were perhaps the easiest to spot in advance due to the allocation that FIFA put in place for the eight best third-placed teams. Others were fairly straightforward to spot from some time out – once the United States had finished their group, it was clear that they would face Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Aside from Portugal, every other team we picked to win their group in our Economics Observatory preview pieces managed to succeed, which means that there is a certain regularity to the draw.

Portugal now switch to Spain’s side of the draw, and hence that’s already one of the most eagerly anticipated last 16 ties, assuming Portugal beat Croatia (a 54% probability) and Spain beat Austria (a 53% probability). There is already some significant jeopardy in the tournament.

Probability of reaching each knockout stage

Country	Strengths (goals)		Elo rating	Probability of reaching (%)
Country	Attack	Defence	Elo rating	Last 16	Quarter-finals	Semi-finals	Final	Winner
Argentina	1.94	0.21	1477	97.16	85.96	63.22	46.9	32.59
Spain	2.06	0.49	1434	71.44	53.89	39.06	27.83	12.3
France	1.78	0.35	1452	87.6	61.63	43.45	24.6	11.98
England	1.41	0.50	1381	73.23	54.33	40.17	14.1	9.47
Colombia	1.71	0.54	1377	89.32	72.61	26.72	16.81	9.32
Brazil	2.02	0.58	1364	54.3	42.59	22.35	8.75	3.81
Portugal	2.22	0.69	1378	65.25	24.19	16.45	9.94	3.7
Belgium	1.54	0.59	1287	66.55	46.77	21.03	9.57	3.23
Netherlands	2.24	0.76	1339	53.96	42.37	16.99	7.45	2.67
Germany	2.22	0.96	1324	77.18	27.67	14.88	5.67	1.67
Morocco	1.10	0.57	1304	46.04	35.05	15.56	5.59	1.61
Japan	1.65	0.86	1311	45.7	29.23	11.75	3.06	1.36
Switzerland	2.02	1.27	1270	45.31	13.8	3.84	2.03	0.97
Croatia	1.49	0.62	1298	34.75	12.2	7.3	2.79	0.95
Ecuador	1.05	0.51	1278	44.51	17.44	7.1	2.14	0.68
Norway	1.89	1.13	1208	56.08	19.39	7.66	2.08	0.67
Senegal	1.46	0.74	1224	33.45	18.38	5.62	1.79	0.62
Algeria	1.45	1.56	1221	54.69	11.27	2.58	1.24	0.53
Austria	1.65	1.05	1212	28.56	9.72	5.52	1.71	0.44
Paraguay	1.00	0.60	1223	22.82	7.42	3.37	1.05	0.39
Mexico	1.15	0.84	1303	55.49	19.74	5.79	1.2	0.29
USA	1.44	1.30	1254	82.2	33.33	4.94	0.83	0.2
Australia	1.40	0.95	1216	53.5	6.22	1.99	0.44	0.11
Egypt	0.94	1.34	1200	46.5	6.59	1.14	0.42	0.11
Canada	0.97	1.03	1239	66.14	17.28	4.03	0.81	0.1
Ivory Coast	1.06	0.97	1201	43.92	8.79	2.76	0.53	0.1
DR Congo	0.78	1.27	1118	26.77	8.49	2.42	0.23	0.07
Sweden	1.74	1.80	1188	12.4	3.28	1.15	0.29	0.04
South Africa	0.78	1.74	1095	33.86	5.3	0.57	0.07	0.02
Cape Verde	0.73	0.83	1096	2.84	1.23	0.34	0.05	0
Ghana	0.94	2.49	1036	10.68	2.32	0.17	0.02	0
Bosnia-Hz.	0.76	2.73	1062	17.8	1.52	0.08	0.01	0

All 32 teams that reached the last 32, ranked by probability of winning the tournament. Hover any cell for detail.

Argentina are the most likely team to progress from the last 32 – they have a 97% chance of eliminating Cape Verde. That constitutes a 90% chance of an Argentina win and an 8% chance of a draw leading to penalties.

Colombia at 89% are the team next most likely to progress against Ghana, and France are heavy favourites against Sweden at 88%. Many in the United States are discounting Bosnia ahead of their last 32 match, and they may have justification: the Americans have an 82% chance of progressing.

The last 32 ties: who progresses?

Match-up	Favourite	Win in 90 mins (%)	Draw → penalties (%)	Underdog win (%)	Favourite progresses (%)
Argentina v Cape Verde	Argentina	90	8	2	97
Colombia v Ghana	Colombia	76	15	8	89
France v Sweden	France	75	15	10	88
USA v Bosnia-Hz.	USA	69	18	14	82
Germany v Paraguay	Germany	65	20	15	77
England v DR Congo	England	44	37	19	73
Spain v Austria	Spain	53	24	22	71
Belgium v Senegal	Belgium	51	27	22	67
South Africa v Canada	Canada	44	33	23	66
Portugal v Croatia	Portugal	54	20	26	65
Ivory Coast v Norway	Norway	44	25	31	56
Mexico v Ecuador	Mexico	31	43	26	55
Switzerland v Algeria	Algeria	44	23	32	55
Brazil v Japan	Brazil	39	28	34	54
Netherlands v Morocco	Netherlands	39	26	36	54
Australia v Egypt	Australia	38	30	32	54

Probabilities from simulation of the tournament; “win in 90 mins” excludes the draw that would send a tie to penalties. Ties ranked by the favourite’s chance of progressing.

What are England’s prospects now?

England have a 73% chance of moving into the last 16 in their match-up with Congo; they have a 44% chance of winning before penalties, and the match has a worryingly high 37% chance of going to penalties. Should England win, they will progress to Mexico City to face co-hosts Mexico.

Ecuador against Mexico is the last 32 match that is most likely to produce a penalty shoot-out (43%), followed by Congo versus England, and then tonight’s opening knockout game between Canada and South Africa.

For England’s match, they have expected goals of 0.9, with Congo having expected goals of 0.5. After England’s opener against Croatia, which they won 4-2, there might have been an expectation that their matches may be more goal-filled than had been anticipated. The two matches since then have rather dispelled that idea. It looks like Wednesday evening will be another tight and nervy experience.

Who could win the tournament from here?

Nine teams from Africa have progressed into the last 32, behind only Europe with 13. European nations have won 12 of the 22 previous World Cups, with South America having the other ten winners – five for Brazil, three for Argentina and two for Uruguay.

These two continents are overwhelmingly likely to provide the next winner of the World Cup too – Europe at 48% and South America at 47%. But there is a 3% chance that the winner could come from Africa, and about a 1% chance, they could come from North America. Japan are about 1% to win the tournament, with Australia having a tiny 0.1% chance of making up the ‘world’ in World Cup.

Chart 1. Probability of winning the World Cup, by confederation

Argentina remain by some distance the most likely winners, at 33%, followed by France and Spain, both at 12%, and England, at 9%. These four teams, which are also FIFA’s top four ranked teams and the four seeds, have between them a 67% chance of winning the competition. Of the remaining 28 teams, which make up a third of the probability mass for lifting the trophy, Colombia are level with England at 9%, Portugal have dropped to 4% after failing to win their group, and Brazil are also at 4%.

Chart 2. The most likely World Cup winners

Uruguay and Iran, at 19th and 21st respectively in FIFA’s rankings (and 14th and 25th in our Economics Observatory rankings), are the highest ranked teams to be eliminated so far, with Turkey (FIFA 27th, Observatory 34th) and South Korea (FIFA 31st, Observatory 27th) just behind.

Uruguay are arguably the biggest disappointment. Iran arguably represent the biggest injustice given the barriers placed in their way by the US government – something that constitutes a stain on what should have been a competition of world football.