World Cup 2026 previews for Groups K and L: what does scorecasting suggest?

World Cup Groups K and L, the last to start, are strongly linked: it’s likely that three teams will qualify from each and all would then face a team from the other group. England’s best chances of progress in the knockout stages would be to come third – but they should definitely avoid second place.

Last night’s opening matches of World Cup Groups I and J all ended up with solid victories for the pre-game favourites, as anticipated by our scorecasting analysis. Those results included statement wins by the finalists in the tournament’s 2022 edition, Argentina and France, with goals for their talisman forwards, Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi. Incidentally, the outcome of that epic encounter was accurately predicted here four years ago, right down to what might determine the winner of a penalty shoot-out.

Now we turn to the last teams to start their World Cup, those in Groups K and L, which will also complete the first round of group matches at the end of next week (along with Group J). The fact that these countries will be among the last to play their third group games has at least two intriguing consequences.

First, by finishing last, each team in the groups, especially those hoping to qualify for the knockout stages via third place, will know what they need to do. Economists Alex Krumer and Michael Lechner have written about this phenomenon in sequential tournaments. As such, it is highly likely that the third-placed teams in Groups K and L will qualify as two of the eight best third-placed teams.

Second, of the 495 possible combinations of taking the best eight teams from 12 third-place finishers, FIFA has dictated which match which group’s third-placed team is allocated to in the last 32. One resulting quirk is that if Group K’s third-placed team is in the top eight, they will definitely play Group L’s winner, and if Group L’s third-placed team is in the top eight, they will definitely play Group K’s winner.

It’s not obvious why FIFA have organised it this way: no other group’s third-placed team would only go into one possible last 32 match. It could be logistical due to the late finish of the groups and not knowing where in the entire continent of North America the teams might be in the next few days.

But given the sequential nature of the competition, it is thus quite likely that the winner of Group L will play the third-placed Group K team, the runners-up in each group will face each other, and the winner of Group K will play the third-placed Group L team. Groups K and L are thus very closely intertwined.

Group K

In Group K, Portugal are the highest ranked team, 5th both by FIFA and our ratings system, and they boast a strong attack at 2.2 goals per game. Colombia are not far behind, ranked 14th by FIFA but 6th in our rankings, and an attack of 1.8 goals per game. Congo and Uzbekistan are both weaker teams, though each has a reasonable chance (38% and 49%) of reaching the last 32. This probability does not reflect the behavioural advantage that late-finishing group teams have, as outlined above.

Portugal are most likely to top the group, with a 56% chance, with Colombia at 30% and thus most likely to finish second (38%). Congo are slightly more likely to progress than Uzbekistan, and hence have a 35% chance of finishing third to Uzbekistan’s 31%.

Group K matches

Portugal kick off Group K against Congo, and are expected to score 1.5 goals, with Congo expected to score 0.7. Portugal are thus 57% likely to win, and Congo 17%. A 1-0 Portugal win is most likely at 18%, though a 0-0 draw, a 1-1 draw and a 2-0 Portugal win are all equally likely at 12%. It’s probable that this will be a relatively cagey match, with a 48% chance that each side scores at most once.

With Colombia and Uzbekistan, the story is quite similar, with the former expected to score 1.5 and the latter 0.6. This means that there’s a 60% chance of a Colombian win, and just a 14% chance that Uzbekistan mark their first ever participation in the World Cup finals with a win. There’s a 51% chance that each team scores at most once, with a 1-0 Colombia win most likely at 20%.

Group L

Group L, the last to start, features England. Their attack isn’t so strong at 1.4 goals per game, and indeed their opening opponent Croatia’s attack is stronger at 1.5 goals per game. Both teams have a defensive strength of 0.5 goals conceded per game.

As such, these two teams dominate probable outcomes in the group, with England at 98% to progress, and Croatia at 95%. Below them, Panama whose defence concedes 2.0 goals per game, and Ghana who concede 2.7 per game, are only 27% and 36% to reach the second round, respectively.

England and Croatia are most likely to finish top, at 54% and 42% respectively, and this distinct split in the group means that these two teams are also most likely to finish second, at 43% and 37% respectively. While finishing second means facing the second-placed team from Group K, even if that tricky test is passed, the last 16 match sees a high chance of the second-placed team facing Spain or Argentina.

Group L matches

England are expected to score 1.3 goals against Croatia, with the latter expected to score 1.1. As such, a 1-1 draw is the most likely outcome at 14%. England are 39% to win their opening match, Croatia 33%, with a 28% chance of a draw in what is one of the most balanced ties in the first set of fixtures. Each team is about 11% to edge a 1-0 win, but it seems likely that this will be a tight encounter.

The second Group L match is between Ghana and Panama, both of which are expected to score 1.3 goals, with Ghana having a 38% chance of winning to Panama’s 36% – another tight match. A 1-1 draw is 12% likely to happen, and there is a 38% chance that each team scores at most once.

Where should England ideally finish in their group?

Should England finish first in their group, then they have a 60% chance of progressing to the last 16, where they are most likely to face Mexico (23%) followed by the Czech Republic (17%). They then have a 49% chance of making the quarterfinals, where they’re most likely to face Brazil (26%), followed by France (16%). Despite those potential opponents, England are still more likely to make the semifinals if they win their group (37% chance) than if they finish second (19%).

England’s progress is less likely should they finish second because even should they navigate beating the second-placed Group K team (which is most likely to be Colombia), they would then be likely to face Spain in the last 16, assuming the Spanish win their group. As such, while finishing second gives England a 77% chance of making the last 16 (71% from third, 60% from first), if they do finish second, they only have a 29% chance of making the quarterfinals relative to a 59% chance from third and 49% from first.

While it is unlikely to be persuasive to England manager Thomas Tuchel as a strategy, the team’s chances of winning the World Cup are therefore strongest if they finish third in their group rather than first – and their worst possible outcome (other than exiting the tournament in the group stages) would be to finish second.

By finishing third, if England then beat Group K’s winners (which is likely to be Portugal) in the last 32, they would face the winners of Group B – one of Canada, Bosnia, Qatar or Switzerland – or another best third-placed team, before being likely to play Argentina in the quarterfinals.

Author: James Reade

Photo: England fans celebrating a goal during the 2024 Euros in Germany. Stefan Constantin for Shutterstock