Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

What’s at stake for teenagers in England awaiting their GCSE results?

The 16-year-olds who took their GCSEs this summer started secondary school in the middle of the pandemic. The results of these high-stakes exams will highlight the uneven toll that Covid-19 lockdowns took on learning, as well as the key role that good grades play in shaping future opportunities.

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Aid & international development

Ukraine: what’s the global economic impact of Russia’s invasion?

Russia’s brutal invasion has driven millions into poverty and debilitated – but not quite destroyed – Ukraine’s economy. Meanwhile, sanctions are straining the Russian economy, but they are yet to end a war that has sown financial turmoil and personal hardship in the region and across the globe.

DATA HUB

Steel production

In the last two decades, China has come to dominate the world’s steel supply. At the turn of the millennium, 16% of the world’s raw steel came from China. Today, it is a majority.

European steel production has been squeezed hardest, making up just 7% today. In the UK, the industry is now on its last legs. With the forthcoming closure of the Port Talbot steelworks, the UK will become the only G7 country unable to make ‘virgin’ steel.

Listen to Richard Davies, the director of the Economics Observatory, explore the decline of the industry in the new Radio 4 documentary Steel Dragons.

Schools, universities & training

What can the UK learn from the latest global data on pupil performance?

New data from the OECD reveal how teenagers around the world are doing at school. The results for the UK are above average – and there hasn’t been the same big drop in scores as in some other places. But there remain significant social concerns, with over one in ten children going hungry.

MAGAZINE

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Evaluating university degrees on the basis of the job prospects they provide for graduates has led to some being seen as ‘low value’ or ‘low quality’. But, in reality, their worth is hard to measure. Closing such courses is likely to have a negative effect on social mobility.

Trade & supply chains

Sanctions effectiveness: what lessons three years into the war on Ukraine?

Western countries imposed extensive sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. But the measures were unilateral and piecemeal – and while they have been effective in disrupting the Russian economy, evasion and ‘trade deflection’ through third countries limits their impact.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

Growing prevalence of disability: what implications for the UK economy?

The number of people in the UK reporting a long-term health problem that limits their day-to-day activities has surged over the past ten years, particularly among younger generations. This will affect their labour market prospects, as well as raising big challenges for employers and policy-makers.

Trade & supply chains

What effects have energy sanctions had on Russia’s ability to wage war?

Despite facing unprecedented sanctions on its energy exports, Russia continues to earn hundreds of billions of dollars a year from oil and gas – directly funding military aggression in Ukraine. While sanctions have had a noticeable impact, they have failed to end the war.

Schools, universities & training

How might changes in student visa provision affect UK immigration levels?

Net migration to the UK has reached record highs. International students are included in the immigration statistics and the government has implied it may seek to limit their future numbers. More research is needed to design effective policies on student visas and post-study work rights.

Business, big & small

The Hundred: how might private investment in the tournament change cricket?

The Hundred cricket competition will soon have a new ownership structure. The sale of franchises will provide funds for the sport’s grassroots. But differences in the types of owners and ownership structures may bring bigger changes, including to TV rights and the county game.

Nations, regions & cities

Football economics: are the lower league clubs getting left behind?

The Premier League dominates football headlines. But across the country, lower division clubs play a key role in their local communities as well as developing talent. While chasing the higher-level leagues can be costly, some clubs are establishing enterprising initiatives, including in education.

Nations, regions & cities

How is China’s economy faring?

China’s economy has suffered from slow consumer spending and a slump in the real estate market. The unpredictable trade war with the United States risks further economic problems, but the current pause in tariff increases plus persistent stimulus from Beijing are keeping the worst outcomes at bay.

Trade & supply chains

The UK-US trade deal: what will be the effects?

The ‘economic prosperity deal’ reduces tariffs for around a quarter of the UK’s goods exports to the United States, including cars and steel. But products not covered by the agreement – as well as services exports, for example, from the financial sector – will still be exposed to taxes on trade.

Business, big & small

What next for the growth of women’s football?

Women’s football matches are attracting record crowds, but funding still lags far behind the men’s game. Clubs that are putting money into their women’s teams are seeing the positive effects, but biases in perceptions of quality and potential are limiting further investment.

Business, big & small

The UK’s new industrial strategy: what does it mean for Manchester?

To succeed, the industrial strategy needs to build strong local ecosystems in places where the eight priority sectors can thrive. The example of Greater Manchester shows why investment must be joined-up and focused on making the city-region a more productive place to do business across the board.

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