Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

The UK-US trade deal: what will be the effects?

The ‘economic prosperity deal’ reduces tariffs for around a quarter of the UK’s goods exports to the United States, including cars and steel. But products not covered by the agreement – as well as services exports, for example, from the financial sector – will still be exposed to taxes on trade.

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Business, big & small

What next for the growth of women’s football?

Women’s football matches are attracting record crowds, but funding still lags far behind the men’s game. Clubs that are putting money into their women’s teams are seeing the positive effects, but biases in perceptions of quality and potential are limiting further investment.

DATA HUB

The debt mountain

Britain currently has £3 trillion of debt – or 104% of GDP.

Compared to the world’s top 21 countries by population, this puts us 3rd on the list behind the US and Japan.
Within the G20 group, the UK sits 6th.

Click on the chart to read 'The debt mountain: the G7’s big problem'.

Business, big & small

The UK’s new industrial strategy: what does it mean for Manchester?

To succeed, the industrial strategy needs to build strong local ecosystems in places where the eight priority sectors can thrive. The example of Greater Manchester shows why investment must be joined-up and focused on making the city-region a more productive place to do business across the board.

MAGAZINE

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Freshwater is essential for human life and economic activity. But rising demand and reduced supply threatens access to water for billions of people. Rethinking pricing and investing in efficiency are essential for policy-makers to address this global challenge.

Pensions, savings & investment

How is pension consolidation likely to affect performance and growth?

UK government proposals to merge some smaller public pensions may improve their performance for beneficiaries. But the scale of this effect is likely to be limited, as is the impact on aggregate investment and the country’s rate of economic growth.

Pensions, savings & investment

Can the UK afford the triple lock on state pensions?

The value of state pensions in the UK is protected by the so-called triple lock. This policy has led to substantial increases in payments to pensioners, raising questions about its affordability over the longer term.

Inequality & poverty

How does the housing market affect wealth inequality?

Many UK housing policies – originally designed to boost wealth and distribute it more equally – are outdated and no longer achieve their aims. Rising house prices have concentrated wealth among older people and in certain regions. New approaches are needed to reduce these inequalities.

Prices & interest rates

Why are food prices rising in the UK?

The annual rate of food price inflation in the UK has accelerated to 4.5%. Behind the increase is a blend of supply shocks, policy changes and climate disruption that together have pushed food costs well above general inflation.

Trade & supply chains

How do new technologies spread across the global economy?

The development of new technology is at the heart of economic growth. But the ways in which new products and processes spread around the world are vulnerable to changes in trade policy, with growing protectionism likely to constrain progress.

Banks & financial markets

Can reforms of financial regulation encourage economic growth?

The UK government is proposing regulatory reforms of the financial services sector as part of its agenda for boosting economic growth. The main focus is on encouraging domestic investment by pension funds and relaxing household access to credit. The chances of success are highly uncertain.

Trade & supply chains

What are the economic implications of the UK-EU reset deal?

The May 2025 ‘reset’ between the European Union and the UK addresses frictions that have emerged as a result of Brexit. The economic effects may be somewhat limited, but the agreement reflects political realities and brings stability at a time of heightened global uncertainty.

Trade & supply chains

Sanctions effectiveness: what lessons three years into the war on Ukraine?

Western countries imposed extensive sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. But the measures were unilateral and piecemeal – and while they have been effective in disrupting the Russian economy, evasion and ‘trade deflection’ through third countries limits their impact.

Pensions, savings & investment

Should the state pension age go up in countries with ageing populations?

In the developing world, falling fertility and rising life expectancy are leading to ageing populations. This has big implications for public spending, including on pensions. In response, many countries are raising the state pension age and/or debating whether it should go up further.

Public spending, taxes & debt

Which taxes are best and worst for growth?

Tax affects economic growth by reducing consumer spending and lowering incentives to invest. But different fiscal policies have variable overall economic effects, with taxes on income better than those levied on corporate profits in terms of their wider impact on GDP.

All Answers