Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

World Cup 2026 epilogue: where next for scorecasting football results?

Elo ratings of national teams are a starting point for thinking about economic questions that pop up around big tournaments, including the relationship between the features of a country and its footballing success. Similarly, clubs can be linked to the socio-economic indicators of their local areas.

Productivity & growth

India’s economic rise: a long and winding road

The rapid development of India in the 20th century is a remarkable story, albeit one with uneven outcomes. Today, the country faces new pressures: from converting growth into health, education and human capability – through reducing dollar dependency – to navigating the transition to green energy.

Energy & climate change

Where next for India’s transition to green energy?

India has made substantial progress in shifting towards more renewable energy sources, with both wind and solar capacity having grown rapidly in recent years. But many challenges remain, with energy independence now a central part of the government’s economic ambitions.

DATA HUB

Inflation update – June 2026

UK annual CPI inflation slowed to 2.6% in June 2026, down from 2.8% in May and below analysts' expectations.

The slowdown was driven mainly by lower transport and food inflation, with goods inflation easing to 1.7% and services inflation edging down to 3.6%.

Banks & financial markets

Does India's dependency on US dollars make the economy vulnerable?

India’s reserves remain among the world’s largest. But a stronger dollar, costlier oil and volatile capital flows are testing the resilience of those buffers. Greater export sophistication, a stronger international role for the rupee and lower energy import dependence could all reduce vulnerability.

MAGAZINE

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India’s Vision 2047 development strategy is often framed as a race to high-income status. But state-level evidence shows that converting growth into health, education and human capability is a harder and more consequential task. The core challenge is to make growth work harder for human development.

Attitudes, media & governance

Live music in the UK: what’s the state of the industry?

Superstar musicians and sold-out arena tours indicate a thriving music business in the UK. But this hides another reality – one of rising costs, administrative barriers post-Brexit, declining earnings and grassroots venues closing. The live music industry is in urgent need of tailored support.

Trade & supply chains

How is India's trade landscape shaping up for the future?

After independence in the late 1940s up to the early 1990s, India’s trade policy was transformed: from protectionism to a liberalised economy. As the country moves towards greater global economic integration, remaining challenges include improving infrastructure and diversifying trade relations.

Public spending, taxes & debt

Should a UK wealth tax be devolved?

The Covid-19 crisis has renewed interest in the merits of introducing a tax on net wealth in the UK. A key issue to consider is whether such a tax should be operated uniformly across the country or with some elements devolved to the governments in Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast.

Public spending, taxes & debt

One-off wealth taxes: what can we learn from history?

Over the last century, a number of countries have tried to introduce one-off wealth taxes or capital levies in response to major crises. Their varying degrees of success offer valuable lessons for policy-makers exploring such an option in the wake of the pandemic.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 final preview – and why isn’t football coming home?

Analysis of the finalists’ attacking and defensive strengths gives Argentina a 58% chance of lifting the trophy, leaving Spain at 42% to win. By only losing to a late goal in the semifinal, England performed better than expected – though over-optimistic forecasts mean it might not feel like that.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 semifinals: is football coming home?

With the tournament now down to its final four, scorecasting analysis suggests that Argentina’s likelihood of retaining the trophy is up to 42%. Spain are on 22% to win, France 20% and England outsiders at 15%. There’s a 10% chance of England beating Argentina 1-0 – and a 21% chance of a 1-0 defeat.

Nations, regions & cities

Greek tragedy: how does weak regional growth affect the wider UK economy?

Beneath the UK’s poor fiscal position sits an even more alarming problem: several regions have a budget deficit larger than Greece did in 2009. Spending cuts alone won’t solve this problem. The big cities also need to grow their tax bases – to reduce both regional deficits and the national deficit.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 quarterfinals: is football coming home?

With just eight teams remaining in the tournament, Argentina have a 36% chance of lifting the trophy, Spain are at 18%, France at 17% and England at 15%. Scorecasting analysis suggests that the most likely result of England’s encounter with Norway is a 2-1 victory for Harry Kane and his team-mates.

Public spending, taxes & debt

Does the UK’s defence investment plan deliver?

A recurrent refrain in commentaries on UK defence policy over decades is the imbalance between resources, commitments and capabilities. Unwillingness to make key decisions about money and cuts means that the defence investment plan has failed to correct that imbalance – so the refrain will continue.

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