Economics Observatory | Questions and answers about coronavirus and the UK economy

World Cup 2022: Is football coming home?

With the group stages of the football’s men’s World Cup in Qatar now complete, the pathways to the final for the remaining 16 teams are clear. ‘Scorecasting’ economists make Brazil favourites to win the tournament with a probability of 28%, while England’s chance of bringing home the trophy is 8.7%.

Festival of Economics 2022

View past programmes and listen to audio recordings here.

Business, big & small

What does the European Super League tell us about competition policy?

The would-be founders of the European Super League are challenging the governing body of European football in the European Court of Justice. UEFA is accused of abusing its dominant position by threatening to sanction clubs and players for participating in the breakaway league.

Schools, universities & training

How might teacher shortages be reduced?

Shortages of school teachers – caused by a long-term decline in the competitiveness of their pay as well as challenging working conditions – are a global concern. Effective policy interventions could include targeted pay supplements and encouraging more supportive leadership practices in education.

Energy & climate change

How are rising energy prices affecting the UK economy?

Higher costs of electricity, gas and petrol not only hurt households directly, but also indirectly as these fuels are key inputs in the production of almost all goods and services. In addition to pushing up inflation, the big rise in energy prices will reduce real GDP, real wages and productivity.

Banks & financial markets

Fiscal and current account deficits: what threat to UK economic stability?

Recent economic turbulence has raised questions about the long-term sustainability of the UK’s fiscal and current account balances – the ‘twin deficits’. The country’s experience over several decades offers insights into the origins of recent troubles and some potential hazards ahead.

Public spending, taxes & debt

How did Treasury policy-makers approach the economic response to Covid-19?

The UK Covid-19 Inquiry provides an opportunity to evaluate how expertise, models and informal analysis contributed to the overall outcome for mortality and the economy. Key questions surround the Treasury’s decision not to use integrated ‘epi-macro modelling’ to inform its policy-making.

Data Hub

Live and interactive charts and visualisations, making sense of the latest numbers

News

#economicsfest: What future for big data and regulation of the tech giants?

With the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX and troubles at Twitter, discussions on day two of this year’s Bristol Festival of Economics were particularly timely. Big data, social media and behemoth technology firms are here to stay – but calls for their regulation grow louder.

News

#economicsfest: How might UK policy-makers overcome the polycrisis?

The UK faces a host of economic challenges: from the cost of living crisis and intergenerational housing inequality to geopolitical tensions and climate change. These issues were addressed and potential policy solutions debated on day one of this year’s Bristol Festival of Economics.

Nations, regions & cities

An independent Scotland: what would be the options for economic success?

If Scotland were to become independent, there would be significant short-term economic challenges. The prospects for the nation’s economy over the longer term are uncertain and would rest on the outcome of tough choices about currency, public finances and membership of the European Union.

Nations, regions & cities

Scottish independence: what are the big economic questions?

Scotland may soon have a second referendum on whether to remain part of the UK. Economic issues will be a key part of the debate – from the fiscal policy institutions needed for an independent country to choice of currency and the future relationship with the European Union.

Banks & financial markets

What can happen when economic policy-makers lose credibility?

Fears that central banks’ commitment to low inflation is weakening or that a government’s fiscal plans are uncosted, unchecked and unfunded can be highly damaging for households, businesses and the public authorities themselves. A lack of credibility is a disaster for policy-makers.

Prices & interest rates

What is supply chain inflation and why is it driving up consumer prices now?

The interconnectedness of global supply chains means that when one price goes up, others tend to follow. Increases in labour, energy and transport costs are contributing to inflation around the world, posing difficult policy challenges.

Banks & financial markets

Are we in the middle of a tech bubble?

The prices of shares in US technology companies have skyrocketed in recent months. A number of indicators suggest that these firms are overvalued, perhaps the strongest sign of a ‘tech bubble’ being the extent to which insiders are selling their shares.

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