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The new prime minister has promised a cut in business rates for the country’s public houses as well as other social venues. Whether this helps pubs’ prospects of survival depends on how much of the pressures on these local institutions are really about costs, rather than changing consumer tastes.

Mexico is central to the productivity and prosperity of North America – particularly through its role as the United States’ largest trading partner. Whether it can turn this relationship into lasting domestic growth will depend on key policy choices that favour pragmatism over ideology.

Elo ratings of national teams are a starting point for thinking about economic questions that pop up around big tournaments, including the relationship between the features of a country and its footballing success. Similarly, clubs can be linked to the socio-economic indicators of their local areas.

India’s Vision 2047 development strategy is often framed as a race to high-income status. But state-level evidence shows that converting growth into health, education and human capability is a harder and more consequential task. The core challenge is to make growth work harder for human development.

With just eight teams remaining in the tournament, Argentina have a 36% chance of lifting the trophy, Spain are at 18%, France at 17% and England at 15%. Scorecasting analysis suggests that the most likely result of England’s encounter with Norway is a 2-1 victory for Harry Kane and his team-mates.

Scorecasting analysis suggests that the likeliest match winners in the round of 16 are Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Colombia, England, France, Morocco and Spain. The altitude in Mexico City will be something of a leveller, but it seems unlikely to leave England’s game against Mexico as a toss-up.

With the last round of group games beginning, the likelihood of pre-tournament favourites Argentina lifting the trophy has risen to 31%, with Spain now at 13%, France 11% and England 9%. England have a 50% chance of reaching the quarterfinals if they top their group, but 30% if they come second.

World Cup Groups K and L, the last to start, are strongly linked: it’s likely that three teams will qualify from each and all would then face a team from the other group. England’s best chances of progress in the knockout stages would be to come third – but they should definitely avoid second place.

The World Cup kicked off last night, and overnight, the United States will begin their campaign in what is likely to be a tight Group D, with a good chance of draws. Brazil and Morocco will dominate Group C, so Scotland’s match against Haiti is key to their hopes of progressing in the tournament.

Seeing others affected by extreme weather events like flooding, storms and heatwaves is not enough to change people’s behaviour. For the average person, a global problem leads to action only when it gets personal: we respond much more when our own postcode is affected by climate disasters.

On Thursday 7 May, voters across England, Scotland and Wales will head to the polls. This week at the Economics Observatory, we have been examining the parties’ prospects – and what the economic backdrop tells us about how and why the political map is shifting.

For nearly three decades, Labour has depended on the capital as a rock-solid source of parliamentary strength. After the local election votes are counted, the party will have to think long and hard about whether it has taken London for granted and now risks being ejected from its safest seats.

The West of England has a highly educated and skilled workforce, globally competitive universities and leading industrial clusters. Yet there are wide inequalities across the region, and the potential for growth is constrained by problems with transport, housing affordability and lack of investment.

Mexico is central to the productivity and prosperity of North America – particularly through its role as the United States’ largest trading partner. Whether it can turn this relationship into lasting domestic growth will depend on key policy choices that favour pragmatism over ideology.

The rapid development of India in the 20th century is a remarkable story, albeit one with uneven outcomes. Today, the country faces new pressures: from converting growth into health, education and human capability – through reducing dollar dependency – to navigating the transition to green energy.

Analysis of the finalists’ attacking and defensive strengths gives Argentina a 58% chance of lifting the trophy, leaving Spain at 42% to win. By only losing to a late goal in the semifinal, England performed better than expected – though over-optimistic forecasts mean it might not feel like that.

Scotland’s unwanted record of being the only team with as many as nine World Cup appearances never to have reached the knockout stage continues. Their fans look on enviously as other nations of comparable and smaller populations have fought on in the competition, some of them doing so consistently.

Europe and South America are overwhelmingly likely to provide the winner of the tournament – but there is a 3% chance of an African country lifting the trophy. Argentina remain by some distance the most probable champions, at 33%, followed by France and Spain, both at 12%, and England, at 9%.

With the first round of group matches complete, scorecasting analysis indicates shifts among the teams most likely to win the World Cup. Argentina have strengthened their position: they’re now 27% to lift the trophy. England have jumped to fourth favourites at 10%, with France and Spain both on 11%.

While World Cup Groups E and F are likely to be dominated by Germany, Japan and the Netherlands, scorecasting economics suggests that in the groups’ first round of matches today and tomorrow, there’s a strong chance of further draws. But a thumping victory for Germany over tiny Curaçao is probable.

Seeing others affected by extreme weather events like flooding, storms and heatwaves is not enough to change people’s behaviour. For the average person, a global problem leads to action only when it gets personal: we respond much more when our own postcode is affected by climate disasters.

On Thursday 7 May, voters across England, Scotland and Wales will head to the polls. This week at the Economics Observatory, we have been examining the parties’ prospects – and what the economic backdrop tells us about how and why the political map is shifting.

Developing countries are often vulnerable to fuel price shocks caused by global geopolitical tensions. As well as raising the costs of key items such as petrol and food, conflicts like the Iran war can force affected governments into expensive subsidies, further damaging already weak economies.