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With the tournament now down to its final four, scorecasting analysis suggests that Argentina’s likelihood of retaining the trophy is up to 42%. Spain are on 22% to win, France 20% and England outsiders at 15%. There’s a 10% chance of England beating Argentina 1-0 – and a 21% chance of a 1-0 defeat.

Scotland’s unwanted record of being the only team with as many as nine World Cup appearances never to have reached the knockout stage continues. Their fans look on enviously as other nations of comparable and smaller populations have fought on in the competition, some of them doing so consistently.

Europe and South America are overwhelmingly likely to provide the winner of the tournament – but there is a 3% chance of an African country lifting the trophy. Argentina remain by some distance the most probable champions, at 33%, followed by France and Spain, both at 12%, and England, at 9%.

France’s educational system spends heavily but delivers unequal outcomes for pupils, mainly driven by differences in their social background. A targeted, low-cost policy framework, combining tutors and adaptive technology, could help to change that without new legislation or major fiscal commitment.

The first round of World Cup Groups G and H takes place today and tomorrow, bringing highly favoured Spain into the action. Scorecasting economics suggests that like the Germans, the Spanish team should win their opening match comfortably. Three points also look likely for Belgium, Iran and Uruguay.

Scorecasting economics suggests that Argentina have a far higher probability of winning the 2026 World Cup than the bookies’ co-favourites, France and Spain. England’s trophy-winning likelihood is 8%; while Scotland have a 71% chance of finally going beyond the group stage of a big tournament.

Economic inactivity has historically been higher in Northern Ireland than in the rest of the UK. Policies to address inactivity have long been in place, but there is a lack of understanding of the specific barriers facing people that lead them to be neither in employment nor actively seeking work.

Elections in the ten boroughs of Greater Manchester provide voters with an opportunity to pass judgement on Labour nationally. But the results may also reflect views on what’s been happening across the city-region, where productivity growth has been strong, and public health and transport improved.

More often than not, the political answer to the North of England’s economic challenges is more trains. Yet while fresh investment in rail infrastructure may boost prosperity in certain places, it isn’t the catch-all solution that some politicians present it to be.

The immediate economic fallout from war in the Middle East lies in the spikes in oil and gas prices, and in major disruptions to aviation and shipping. The countries most vulnerable to future inflation from the shocks are those that combine energy import dependency with weak external balances.

More than two-thirds of humanity now live in countries where fertility has fallen below the level needed for a stable population. This fundamental demographic shift is transforming economies, raising questions about ageing populations, shrinking workforces and the sustainability of welfare states.

The Post Office scandal brought into sharp focus the risks associated with placing blind faith in technology. To learn from this troubling episode and start rebuilding public trust, policy-makers must challenge the idea of the infallibility of machines within the legal system.

Resistance to antimicrobial drugs has eroded their effectiveness at combating infections. Economics can help to analyse the problem and develop policy solutions, including subscription payments for antimicrobials, incentives for pharmaceutical companies and reformulation of existing treatments.

Scotland’s unwanted record of being the only team with as many as nine World Cup appearances never to have reached the knockout stage continues. Their fans look on enviously as other nations of comparable and smaller populations have fought on in the competition, some of them doing so consistently.

Exaggerated anxiety followed by gradual accommodation is one of the most consistent features of Western immigration history – with first Catholics, then Jews and now Muslims feared. In thinking about issues of cultural difference and social cohesion, we need a path between alarmism and complacency.

With the first round of group matches complete, scorecasting analysis indicates shifts among the teams most likely to win the World Cup. Argentina have strengthened their position: they’re now 27% to lift the trophy. England have jumped to fourth favourites at 10%, with France and Spain both on 11%.

The World Cup kicked off last night, and overnight, the United States will begin their campaign in what is likely to be a tight Group D, with a good chance of draws. Brazil and Morocco will dominate Group C, so Scotland’s match against Haiti is key to their hopes of progressing in the tournament.

Seeing others affected by extreme weather events like flooding, storms and heatwaves is not enough to change people’s behaviour. For the average person, a global problem leads to action only when it gets personal: we respond much more when our own postcode is affected by climate disasters.

The 2026 election for the Welsh parliament is likely to produce a seismic result, one that would end over a century of Labour dominance in Wales. Two blocs of parties offer different visions for a time of high economic uncertainty and worrying trends in employment, earnings and living standards.

Developing countries are often vulnerable to fuel price shocks caused by global geopolitical tensions. As well as raising the costs of key items such as petrol and food, conflicts like the Iran war can force affected governments into expensive subsidies, further damaging already weak economies.

The immediate economic fallout from war in the Middle East lies in the spikes in oil and gas prices, and in major disruptions to aviation and shipping. The countries most vulnerable to future inflation from the shocks are those that combine energy import dependency with weak external balances.

More than two-thirds of humanity now live in countries where fertility has fallen below the level needed for a stable population. This fundamental demographic shift is transforming economies, raising questions about ageing populations, shrinking workforces and the sustainability of welfare states.

While official data points to a ‘productivity miracle’ in several large northern cities since 2019, a closer look suggests otherwise. This serves as a reminder to sense-check any data before using it, regardless of the source.