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Exaggerated anxiety followed by gradual accommodation is one of the most consistent features of Western immigration history – with first Catholics, then Jews and now Muslims feared. In thinking about issues of cultural difference and social cohesion, we need a path between alarmism and complacency.

With the first round of group matches complete, scorecasting analysis indicates shifts among the teams most likely to win the World Cup. Argentina have strengthened their position: they’re now 27% to lift the trophy. England have jumped to fourth favourites at 10%, with France and Spain both on 11%.

While World Cup Groups E and F are likely to be dominated by Germany, Japan and the Netherlands, scorecasting economics suggests that in the groups’ first round of matches today and tomorrow, there’s a strong chance of further draws. But a thumping victory for Germany over tiny Curaçao is probable.

Non-fatal strangulation is a dangerous and under-recognised form of domestic abuse, especially since it may leave little visible injury. Legislation that makes it a standalone offence will not only reduce violence inflicted on intimate partners, but also help to prevent escalation into homicide.

Stimulating growth is one of the government’s top priorities. Traditionally, reducing labour market insecurities has been pursued as a separate goal. But five policy areas could boost both productivity and equality: small and medium-sized firms, pay transparency, recruitment, localism and training.

Longstanding questions around Scotland’s constitutional future remain open. But the more immediate challenges are economic and fiscal. Slow growth in living standards, an ageing population and rising public spending pressures mean that the next parliament will face difficult budgetary choices.

The benefits of distinctive urban architecture extend far beyond the buildings themselves, but the costs are borne by the developers. This can lead to underinvestment in high-quality design – and it raises the question of whether policy should encourage better architecture.

This week at the Economics Observatory, we explore issues around falling fertility and ageing populations – from why people in rich countries are having fewer children to the global economic consequences, and how demographic factors such as age shape wellbeing.

From digital failures in the UK’s justice system to the Post Office tragedy and widespread anxiety about artificial intelligence across the world, the pace of technological change is testing the capacity of society’s core institutions to adapt and adopt.

While official data points to a ‘productivity miracle’ in several large northern cities since 2019, a closer look suggests otherwise. This serves as a reminder to sense-check any data before using it, regardless of the source.

Ahead of the UK’s Budget, we look at the insights from our series of articles on economic growth. Unlocking the country’s economic potential is vital to boost incomes and protect jobs, as well as paying for the public services that people rely on.

Various adjustments to Britain’s tax and benefit system have created sharp spikes in marginal tax rates. Some families take home less than 40p of each extra pound they earn, blunting incentives to work or take promotions.

The UK is raising defence spending to bolster national security. But unless this shift supports defence-related research, without sacrificing public funds for innovation in health, science and education, the result could be slower productivity growth, not faster.

With the first round of group matches complete, scorecasting analysis indicates shifts among the teams most likely to win the World Cup. Argentina have strengthened their position: they’re now 27% to lift the trophy. England have jumped to fourth favourites at 10%, with France and Spain both on 11%.

The World Cup kicked off last night, and overnight, the United States will begin their campaign in what is likely to be a tight Group D, with a good chance of draws. Brazil and Morocco will dominate Group C, so Scotland’s match against Haiti is key to their hopes of progressing in the tournament.

Seeing others affected by extreme weather events like flooding, storms and heatwaves is not enough to change people’s behaviour. For the average person, a global problem leads to action only when it gets personal: we respond much more when our own postcode is affected by climate disasters.

The 2026 election for the Welsh parliament is likely to produce a seismic result, one that would end over a century of Labour dominance in Wales. Two blocs of parties offer different visions for a time of high economic uncertainty and worrying trends in employment, earnings and living standards.

Developing countries are often vulnerable to fuel price shocks caused by global geopolitical tensions. As well as raising the costs of key items such as petrol and food, conflicts like the Iran war can force affected governments into expensive subsidies, further damaging already weak economies.

The immediate economic fallout from war in the Middle East lies in the spikes in oil and gas prices, and in major disruptions to aviation and shipping. The countries most vulnerable to future inflation from the shocks are those that combine energy import dependency with weak external balances.

More than two-thirds of humanity now live in countries where fertility has fallen below the level needed for a stable population. This fundamental demographic shift is transforming economies, raising questions about ageing populations, shrinking workforces and the sustainability of welfare states.

While official data points to a ‘productivity miracle’ in several large northern cities since 2019, a closer look suggests otherwise. This serves as a reminder to sense-check any data before using it, regardless of the source.

Ahead of the UK’s Budget, we look at the insights from our series of articles on economic growth. Unlocking the country’s economic potential is vital to boost incomes and protect jobs, as well as paying for the public services that people rely on.

The relationship between economic growth and happiness is not as straightforward as it first appears. While higher income is associated with greater wellbeing, other factors like healthcare and friendship are important too, especially in richer countries.