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Have government policies helped small firms cope with coronavirus?

Small firms around the world have been hit hard by the Covid-19 crisis. While governments have mobilised substantial resources in support, many measures have had limited effect, in part due to smaller enterprises struggling to access information on relief loans.

Nations, regions & cities

What are the big economic challenges facing the new Welsh Government?

As the dust settles on the Senedd election results, the scale of the economic impact of Covid-19 in Wales is becoming clearer. In the face of huge challenges, the current fiscal outlook implies tough choices and trade-offs for the new Welsh Government.

News

Digital economy

Digital technologies play an ever-increasing role in our lives – and the pandemic has seen this trend accelerate. Effective regulation of digital platforms, resilience of the networks and equitable, universal access are among the challenges facing policy-makers.

Health, physical & mental

How is coronavirus catalysing changes in digital health?

Healthcare professionals’ use of remote consultations, electronic prescription services and other digital health systems has grown during the pandemic, as has investment in these technologies by governments and the private sector. It is unclear whether these trends will continue beyond Covid-19.

Data stories

Wales at Euro 2020: are the betting markets underestimating their chances?

The transfer market value of the Welsh football team suggests a higher probability of winning than the bookmakers’ odds; and their veteran star player may be undervalued. Both factors suggest that the chances of success for Wales at Euro 2020 are understated.

Science, technology & innovation

Big Tech: how can we promote competition in digital platform markets?

With the growing market dominance of digital platforms like Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google, calls for an effective policy response have become louder. New competition regulations are on the horizon, but international cooperation is needed for them to succeed.

Recession & recovery

Will inflation take off in the UK?

Inflation is likely to rise from its current low level due to supply shortages and increased spending. The most probable outcome is a range of 2-3% a year, but it could go higher. Any increase above 3% should be temporary as long as fiscal and monetary policy are set appropriately.

Science, technology & innovation

What are the social responsibilities of the dominant digital platforms?

Most digital platforms have emerged as big winners from the pandemic. Yet they are under regulatory pressure on both sides of the Atlantic. A fundamental question is whether and how these businesses should be held accountable for what happens on their websites.

News

International rescue

A busy weekend in international affairs kicks off with G7 leaders discussing the recovery from Covid-19 at the summit in Cornwall – and the opening matches in the UEFA European Football Championship, postponed from 2020. Economists are providing some perspective on both.

Banks & financial markets

Dogecoin: what is it and does it have any value?

From Bitcoin to Ethereum and Litecoin to Tether, there are now over 4,000 cryptocurrencies in circulation. Dogecoin, a so-called meme cryptocurrency, began as a joke but it is now mined at a rate of 10,000 new coins every minute.

Data stories

Is football coming home?

England football fans are starting to sing ‘It’s coming home’; while followers of Scotland and Wales hope their teams can cause a few shocks at Euro 2020. But the chances of these outcomes are slim, despite what’s suggested by the bookmakers’ odds.

Health, physical & mental

Frontline stories: NHS

Carol Propper talks to Dr Melanie Cockroft, a trainee in anaesthetics and intensive care medicine in the NHS. Mel has been a doctor for the past 15 years and has been working in an intensive care unit throughout the Covid-19 pandemic.

Data stories

How does the Cornish economy compare with the rest of the UK?

Leaders of the G7 countries will descend on Cornwall this coming weekend for their 47^th summit. The meeting brings together the world’s most advanced economies, but the county hosting them lags behind the rest of the UK.

Lessons from history

Are we about to experience another Roaring Twenties?

A century ago, after the global pandemic known as the Spanish flu, much of the world enjoyed a boom period, later immortalised as the ‘Roaring Twenties’. Following the successful rollout of several vaccines for Covid-19, some commentators think that history might repeat itself.

Schools, universities & training

What does it mean to decolonise the economics curriculum?

Following last summer’s Black Lives Matter protests, many university departments have been exploring what might be done to ‘decolonise’ the curriculum. Teachers of economics have the apparatus for rigorous discussion of topics like slavery, colonial exploitation and racial bias.

New Post • Data stories

School’s in: are more of the young staying in education during the downturn?

Many of the part-time evening and weekend jobs traditionally done by young people – in retail, and cafes and restaurants – have disappeared during the pandemic. As in other economic downturns, more young people are staying on at school.

Schools, universities & training

Update: How has the crisis affected children from poorer backgrounds?

Children from lower-income households face larger learning losses than their peers. Their parents and guardians are also more likely to face reduced earnings as a result of the pandemic. These factors will exacerbate inequality unless policy-makers act now to close the education gap.

News

Work in progress

Uncertainty about the next stage of the pandemic and the economic recovery persists. Many people’s jobs hang in the balance – and new strains of the virus threaten the path to ‘normality’.

News

Digital divide

From working on Zoom to watching Netflix, digital technology has been central to many people’s lives during the pandemic. But while shares in tech companies have boomed, others – from small business owners to poorer families – are at risk of being left behind.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

Retraining: which are the best policies for getting people back to work?

Many people are expected to lose their jobs in the aftermath of the pandemic. Retraining will be one important way to get them back into work. There is a good economic case both for subsidising individuals and giving firms incentives to invest in training programmes.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

What kind of government support might replace the UK’s job furlough scheme?

Furlough ends in September. What will happen to the millions of workers still on the scheme, especially those who are not recalled by their employer? What kind of support – in cash and job search assistance – is the government providing?

Trade & supply chains

How are Covid-19 and Brexit affecting ports in Wales?

Volumes of trade through major Welsh ferry ports were temporarily reduced by the pandemic. But for some ports, leaving the European Union has had a bigger negative impact as freight companies redirect to avoid the ‘landbridge’ to Europe through the UK.

Banks & financial markets

Are we in the middle of a tech bubble?

The prices of shares in US technology companies have skyrocketed in recent months. A number of indicators suggest that these firms are overvalued, perhaps the strongest sign of a ‘tech bubble’ being the extent to which insiders are selling their shares.

News

Food for thought

The UK’s National Food Strategy, an independent review commissioned by the government, will report later this year. One key focus is the public health challenge of rising obesity, particularly among children growing up in deprivation, and the implications for policy.

Families & households

How can policy reduce food poverty among children?

Cash benefits boost poor families’ incomes, and if parents struggle to make appropriate spending choices, food vouchers can help them to buy more and better-quality food for their children. But many of the very poorest families fail to take up the vouchers or have restricted eligibility.

Families & households

Did food hardship increase during the pandemic?

The number of households experiencing uncertainty about secure access to food rose dramatically during the pandemic in both the United States and the UK. The crisis has exposed severe inequalities in ‘food hardship’ across race and class in both countries.

Attitudes, media & governance

What is the likely impact of advertising restrictions on obesity?

Much of the food and drink advertised on TV and other media is bad for our health. Evidence suggests that such adverts lead people to make unhealthy choices – and that advertising restrictions would be likely to encourage more nutritious diets.

Public spending, taxes & debt

Would taxes on unhealthy foods reduce obesity?

Taxing unhealthy foods like sugary drinks makes them relatively more expensive, potentially encouraging people to buy more healthy alternatives. Evidence shows that such taxes do reduce consumption and that firms reformulate their products, with beneficial effects on health.

Health, physical & mental

Why should we care about obesity?

Obesity is increasing in the UK and around the world, including among children from disadvantaged backgrounds. As well as immediate health effects, obesity can have an impact on young people’s learning and future prospects.

Health, physical & mental

How should we measure the impact of Covid-19 policies on our wellbeing?

Wellbeing is improved when people live longer, healthier lives. Measuring changes in life experience as well as life expectancy will enable richer evaluation of policies.

New Post • Data stories

Update: Is football coming home?

With Euro 2020 now at the knock-out stages, it’s time to reassess the chances of the last 16 teams progressing further. ‘Scorecasting’ economists make England slight favourites to reach the final from their side of the draw; while Wales have a 5% chance of going to Wembley.

Science, technology & innovation

Should patents on Covid-19 vaccines be waived?

There is much debate about whether the patents on Covid-19 vaccines should be waived to allow low-income countries to produce doses for themselves. In current circumstances, such a course of action is likely to have little effect for good or ill.

News

Balancing act

As Covid case numbers begin to climb again, the debate over easing restrictions has returned. But the economic and health effects of the pandemic are not felt equally and improving research and policy-making to identify and support the most vulnerable is crucial.

Inequality & poverty

What different ways can policy-makers address inequality?

Longstanding economic fractures have been widened by the pandemic. In response, a range of policy actions are needed across the income distribution and at all stages of the economic process.

Science, technology & innovation

Do our beliefs about future technology affect the economy?

New technologies, such as 5G telecommunications, self-driving vehicles and mRNA-based drugs and vaccines, have the potential to shape our future. Anticipation of their impact may already be affecting the economy today.

News

The new normal

While final lockdown restrictions in England were lifted on Monday, seeing people return to nightclubs mask-free, the ‘pingdemic’ has become a major problem for the UK. Industries are suffering from mass staff-shortages as self-isolation notifications hit record highs.

Data stories

Levelling up: Has Covid-19 reduced the regional employment gap?

Payroll data suggest that differences in employment across UK regions have reversed during Covid-19, with employment rising above pre-pandemic levels in some regions, with London falling behind. In contrast, traditional employment measures suggest all regions are yet to recover.

Data stories

UK inflation: What do the latest data tell us?

Inflation rises to 2.5% as prices pick up from their record lows in 2020. Increasing food and fuel prices drove inflation to its third consecutive month of growth in June 2021. Supply shortages and low prices a year ago can explain this month’s relatively high inflation.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

Will people go back to the office after the pandemic?

Covid-19 restrictions have forced many people to work remotely to mitigate the spread of the virus. But even after re-opening, a majority of employees would prefer flexible arrangements to continue, with working from home an option for some part of the week.

Trade & supply chains

How is Brexit affecting the role of sterling in UK trade?

In the five years since the Brexit referendum, the share of the UK’s exports invoiced in pounds has declined, while invoicing in US dollars has grown significantly. Such changes matter for the competitiveness of UK exporters, particularly if there are sudden shifts in currency values.

News

School's out

As the summer term draws to a close, many questions remain unanswered about how young people can catch up on the learning losses from nearly half a year of school closures. Supporting education and skills – ‘human capital’ – is a critical area for UK policy-makers.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

How can soft skills help people get better jobs?

Workers in low-wage jobs have fewer opportunities for training and limited pay progression. This can be improved by developing soft skills. National accreditation and improvements in digital infrastructure can help to upgrade people’s soft skills in the post-pandemic economy.

Data stories

UK GDP: Which sectors are thriving and which struggling?

In May 2021, UK gross domestic product grew for the fourth consecutive month, increasing by 0.8%. Pubs, restaurants and hotels jumped by almost 40% with cold weather acting as a boost for energy producers. Despite sustained growth, UK GDP is still 3.1% below pre-pandemic levels.

Schools, universities & training

Which investments in human capital will boost productivity growth?

Developing people’s knowledge and skills – their ‘human capital’ – is thought to be critical for improving productivity and sustaining economic growth. Empirical research suggests this link is surprisingly dubious, but measurement challenges may help explain this.

Data stories

Update IV: Is football coming home?

On Sunday night, England will play their first major men’s final in 55 years. They are playing a strong side in Italy and the match is expected to be close, but England have the home advantage, which may make all the difference.

New Post • Schools, universities & training

How can UK policy-makers meet the increased need for tutoring?

Millions of children in the UK fell behind in their education while schools were closed in 2020. One-to-one tutoring is effective to make up lost learning, but costly. Offshoring online tutoring to lower-wage countries could allow for much wider access.

Science, technology & innovation

Can the UK’s digital infrastructure continue to cope with rising demand?

Home-working and remote social interactions during the pandemic have relied on high-quality infrastructure for digital communication – and despite a huge increase in demand, the network has largely delivered. The next challenge is to ensure universal access at moderate cost.

Data stories

How has Covid-19 affected UK productivity?

The latest ONS data suggest that labour productivity – previously seen as the UK economy’s weak spot – has been revived. It appears this has been driven, in part, by less productive sectors shrinking and more productive sectors adopting new technology.

Recession & recovery

Do we have to choose between health and the economy?

Throughout the pandemic, discussion of policy decisions has been framed as protecting lives or the economy. But the past year has taught us that good policy considers our health and the economy together rather than as competing interests.

Data stories

Update III: Is football coming home?

Four teams are left in Euro 2020, with Italy now the favourites. Each of the semi-finalists has enjoyed a home advantage during the group stages, but with the semi-finals and final taking place at Wembley, chances may have swung slightly in England’s favour.