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Road to recovery
Newsletter from 30 July 2021 This week, daily Covid-19 cases in the UK fell to a three-week record low, alleviating fears of a renewed surge following the easing of restrictions on 19 July. While the immediate effects of Covid-19 on public health appear to be subsiding, long-term economic scars remain. For example, on Sunday, the […]
Data stories
What do the latest data reveal about UK trade?
According to the latest data release from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK trade was down in the first quarter of 2021 (January to March). Imports fell by 12.3% compared with the first quarter of 2020 and exports dropped by 12.2% (see Figure 1). The second wave of the pandemic, lockdowns, and the effects […]
Data stories
Could universal basic income work in Wales?
Wales has historically had the highest poverty rate of all UK nations. Before the pandemic, one in four adults and one in three children were living in poverty. This has likely increased since Covid-19, with unemployment up 75% since March 2020. The full effects of the pandemic have not been seen yet. Many households at […]
Inequality & poverty
What different ways can policy-makers address inequality?
Economic and social inequalities take many forms: many have been widened by Covid-19. Across the income distribution, consumption, savings, job losses and the opportunities for remote work have evolved very differently. Across genders and between parents and those without children, the toll of school closures, lack of childcare and additional housework has been uneven. And […]
Science, technology & innovation
Do our beliefs about future technology affect the economy?
Over the past year, there has been a surge in the use and development of new technologies, as well as new applications for existing ones. For example, online conferencing tools have become part of many people’s everyday lives and progress in mRNA research through vaccine development promises treatment of diseases beyond Covid-19. Just as the […]
News
The new normal
Newsletter from 23 July 2021 In England, the week started with the arrival of the long-anticipated (by some) ‘Freedom Day’. Masks and social distancing became optional – although still encouraged – and nightlife was revived, with clubs reopening for the first time since March 2020. People enjoyed their new freedom amid a scorching heatwave, with […]
Data stories
Levelling up: Has Covid-19 reduced the regional employment gap?
The latest labour market data for the UK were released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) last week. The ONS headline focused on ‘payroll employment’, measured by the number of employees registered for pay as you earn (PAYE) tax each month. What does the evidence say? According to the data, the number of employees […]
Jobs, work, pay & benefits
Will people go back to the office after the pandemic?
The coronavirus crisis has changed many aspects of our lives, including our working patterns. Although growing numbers of people were starting to work from home before the pandemic, the trend accelerated substantially after the start of the crisis. Only 5% of employees worked from home pre-Covid-19, but the proportion increased to more than 45% in […]
Data stories
UK inflation: What do the latest data tell us?
Inflation – the rate at which prices are rising – was 2.5% for the 12 months leading up to June 2021, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is up from 2.1% for May 2021 and is the third consecutive month of significant growth. This is the highest level […]
Trade & supply chains
How is Brexit affecting the role of sterling in UK trade?
An important change has been taking place in the UK’s trade with non-European Union (EU) countries. Since the Brexit referendum, the country’s trading relationship with the EU – which remains its largest trading partner – has taken centre stage in the policy discussion. But since the vote in June 2016, the importance of the US […]
News
School’s out
Ahead of next week’s end of term and the start of the summer holidays for UK schools and the House of Commons, this has been a busy few days for economic news, government pronouncements and high-profile public policy reports: Inflation and the labour market: The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the latest data on […]
Jobs, work, pay & benefits
How can soft skills help people get better jobs?
Low-earning workers around the world have seen minimal increases on their pay slips in recent decades. In the UK, although employment rates were relatively high pre-Covid-19, work alone was not enough to keep many families out of poverty. In 2019-20, 14.5 million people in the UK, or 22% of the population, were in relative poverty […]
Schools, universities & training
Which investments in human capital will boost productivity growth?
Human capital is the knowledge, skills, competencies and health embodied in individual people (OECD, 2001). Like physical capital – such as buildings or machinery – human capital can be ‘accumulated’, usually through investment in education, training or better health. Similarly, it can depreciate due to the lack of use, ageing or even obsolence – when […]
Schools, universities & training
How can UK policy-makers meet the increased need for tutoring?
Since March 2020, children in the UK have missed almost half a year of in-school lessons. In England, schools were closed for 21 weeks across the two lockdowns and during further Covid outbreaks, with hundreds of classes and year groups sent home to isolate for further days and weeks. The resulting loss of learning is […]
Data stories
UK GDP: Which sectors are thriving and which struggling?
According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) – the total value of the goods and services produced – grew by 0.8% in May 2021. This is the fourth consecutive month that the economy has grown (see Figure 1). Figure 1: UK Monthly GDP (January […]
Schools, universities & training
How should we measure the development of human capital in children?
A child’s ‘human capital’ is a collection of their skills and abilities. Some children are stronger academically; some have better social and emotional skills; and others excel at practical subjects. No single measure can capture all of these things – the best measure to use depends on what we’re interested in. What is human capital […]
Data stories
Update IV: Is football coming home?
The European Championships Final is England against Italy, with England enjoying the home advantage. Playing at Wembley – England’s home ground – does matter – the Three Lions’ probability of winning on neutral territory would be 33% (Italy’s 41%), but in London it’s 40%, compared with Italy’s 33% (see Table 1). Table 1: Euro 2020 […]
News
Balancing act
Newsletter from 9 July 2021 On the surface, events this week have hinted at a return to normality, 16 months on from the arrival of Covid-19 in the UK. On Monday, Boris Johnson announced that plans to lift social distancing, mask-wearing and gathering restrictions will go ahead on 19 July. On Wednesday, the Office for […]
Data stories
How has Covid-19 affected UK productivity?
Productivity is one of the big economic questions in the UK. The amount workers can produce – their ‘labour productivity’, is a major driver of economic and wage growth. The 2007-2009 financial crisis saw UK labour productivity plummet. We would expect Covid-19 to cause a similar drop. But according to the latest data from the […]
Recession & recovery
Do we have to choose between health and the economy?
During the epidemic, people have changed patterns of behaviour to protect themselves against the disease. Together with the restrictions imposed in an effort to reduce Covid cases, hospitalisations and deaths, this has caused significant damage to the economy. An average of 48 shops, restaurants or similar venues have closed each day across England, Scotland and […]
Inequality & poverty
Do we need the term BAME?
One of the recommendations in the recent report of the Commission of Race and Ethnic Disparities (the Sewell report) is to discontinue the use of the term BAME (black, Asian and minority ethnic) as a catch-all to describe ethnic groups who are disadvantaged in the UK. It was introduced as a collective term in the […]
Data stories
Update III: Is football coming home?
The 2020 European Championships is now down to the final four nations – and with both France and Belgium knocked out, neither of the two pre-tournament strongest teams remain. As Covid restrictions in England continue to be eased, the two semi-finals will take place on Tuesday and Wednesday night, with up to 60,000 in attendance […]
Health, physical & mental
How has Covid-19 affected younger adults with social care needs?
Long-standing weakness in England’s system of social care, combined with policy mistakes early in the Covid-19 crisis, contributed to high infection and death rates among social care users. Since the pandemic began, there has been a 62% increase in deaths among people receiving domiciliary care compared with recent years and a 20% increase among care […]
Inequality & poverty
How can we promote diversity in economics?
Economics has gone through a decade of reckoning. Various world events have brought to public discussion some latent concerns with economics as a discipline: the global financial crisis of 2007-09 led some students to demand change in the syllabus, arguing that it was unfit to understand big economic shocks and prevent new ones; the #MeToo […]
News
Safety in numbers
Three billion Covid-19 vaccine doses had been administered around the world as of the start of this week, according to Our World in Data. The first half billion took 114 days to roll out; the most recent half billion just 13 days. These are promising numbers and represent staggering progress in both medical technology and […]
Banks & financial markets
How are developing economies coping with the Covid-19 crisis?
When the Government of India first announced a countrywide lockdown in March 2020, thousands of daily wage workers living in urban centres had to flee to their home villages, where they hoped that their social networks would insulate them from the brunt of the crisis. Despite dramatic scenes showing the plight of these migrants on […]
Data stories
Update II: Is football coming home?
Since 1996, England fans have sung ‘It’s coming home’ with varying degrees of sarcasm, hope and despair. In 1996, an unexpected run to the semi-finals saw one of England’s many unsuccessful run-ins with Germany since 1966, the last time England actually beat the German team in a tournament knock-out match. This history meant that when […]
Jobs, work, pay & benefits
How has Covid-19 affected India’s economy?
From April to June 2020, India’s GDP dropped by a massive 24.4%. According to the latest national income estimates, in the second quarter of the 2020/21 financial year (July to September 2020), the economy contracted by a further 7.4%. The recovery in the third and fourth quarters (October 2020 to March 2021) was still weak, […]
Families & households
How has the pandemic affected household finances in developing economies?
Around the world, Covid-19 has exposed the fragility of households’ economic and financial wellbeing. Policies implemented to contain the pandemic have restricted vast numbers of individuals from being able to earn, and this has threatened households’ economic security. Policy-makers have had to balance the need to limit the spread of the virus with economic considerations. […]
Science, technology & innovation
Can the UK’s digital infrastructure continue to cope with rising demand?
Throughout the Covid-19 crisis, we have relied on digital platforms for everything from home-schooling and remote working to entertainment and contact with loved ones. While very few positives have emerged from the pandemic, the way the UK’s digital communications infrastructure has performed – in the face of rapidly increasing demand – has been one of […]
News
Twenty-twenties vision
Covid-19 restrictions are now due to lift in England on 19 July 2021, and then in Scotland three weeks later. While new variants and rising case numbers could still derail these timelines (as has happened with several previous schedules), some are asking whether it is time that we ‘learn to live’ with the virus, allowing […]
Data stories
Update: Is football coming home?
Before the European Championships began, we published some forecasts about how the tournament would turn out. They weren’t particularly positive about England’s chances – and hence chimed with the semi-ironic usual usage of the phrase ‘football’s coming home’. Now that the group stages are over, a substantial degree of uncertainty has been ironed out. Prior […]
Data stories
School’s in: are more of the young staying in education during the downturn?
The most recent labour market data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show a rise in economic inactivity in the latest quarter. According to the ONS, this is driven in part by ‘more young people […]staying in education and not looking for work, which is supported by the record economic inactivity rate of young […]
Health, physical & mental
How should we measure the impact of Covid-19 policies on our wellbeing?
Policy responses to Covid-19 have been remarkably similar around the world – from lockdowns to mask-wearing mandates. In one way or another, non-medical policies designed to control the spread of the virus – known as non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – have been deployed to save as many lives as possible, almost irrespective of the costs. During […]
Lessons from history
Are we about to experience another Roaring Twenties?
In early January this year, Martin Sandbu of the Financial Times asked whether the ‘Roaring Twenties’ that followed the end of the Spanish flu pandemic in 1920 might be repeated a century later. The possible parallels extend beyond the cessation of the pandemic. The 1920s ushered in a revolutionary ‘general purpose technology’ – electrification – […]
News
Digital economy
Newsletter from 18 June 2021 It is a long time since I was first seized by an interest in digital technology, wanting to understand what it is doing to our economies and societies. It was the mid-1990s when I first saw a webcam showing me – in London – live traffic driving along San Francisco’s […]
Health, physical & mental
How is coronavirus catalysing changes in digital health?
Covid-19 has increased the adoption and acceptance of ‘digital health’ systems, including telephone appointments with GPs, wearable health monitoring devices and electronic prescription services. For example, the NHS app was used by under 200,000 people in December 2019: a year later, this had increased 912% to nearly two million. The growing use of digital health […]
Data stories
Wales at Euro 2020: are the betting markets underestimating their chances?
The bookmakers do not give Wales much chance at Euro 2020, offering odds of 150/1 for the team to win the tournament, despite having drawn their first match. After adjusting for the bookmakers’ margins (the adjustments they make to the ‘true odds’ so that they can expect to make a profit), this implies a win […]
Science, technology & innovation
Big Tech: how can we promote competition in digital platform markets?
As our use of information and communications technologies has increased, a number of large digital platforms – ‘Big Tech’ – have expanded and come to dominate their respective markets. In February 2021, Google accounted for nearly 87% of the global search market, compared with Bing, which took under 7%. Similarly, with over 1.4 billion users, […]
Recession & recovery
Will inflation take off in the UK?
Inflation is a general increase in prices in an economy – it erodes the purchasing power of money. The prospects for UK prices are more uncertain now than they have been for many years. As Charles Goodhart discussed in July 2020, there are opposing schools of thought on post-pandemic inflation. This uncertainty can be seen […]
Science, technology & innovation
What are the social responsibilities of the dominant digital platforms?
In the spring of 2020, like millions of others, we wondered how we might cope with weeks of lockdown. Our experiences over the past 16 months would certainly have been very different and in many ways much harder if the internet had not existed. Platforms such as Netflix have offered us entertainment, while Facetime has […]
Banks & financial markets
Dogecoin: what is it and does it have any value?
Dogecoin is one of a number of cryptocurrencies that have hit the headlines in recent months, gaining a lot of attention because of both its price rises and its uniqueness as a ‘meme cryptocurrency’ with a cult following. It has a market capitalisation of around $44 billion, making it the sixth largest cryptocurrency and the […]
News
International rescue
Newsletter from Friday 11 June Last week, the Economics Observatory celebrated its first birthday. Today, we mark 12 months of answering questions about coronavirus and the economy with the first issue of our new magazine. You can read ECO online – but if, like many of us, you’ve had enough of staring at a screen, […]
Data stories
Is football coming home?
The delayed UEFA European Football Championship starts today, 11 June 2021. The media are ratcheting up the anticipation and pundits are filling the airwaves. Some football fans will fervently believe it is their nation’s time to taste success. Others will just be hoping that their team does well. The definition of ‘well’, though, is a […]
Data stories
How does the Cornish economy compare with the rest of the UK?
This June, Cornwall is hosting the G7 (Group of Seven) summit. Leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, the United States and the European Union are gathering in Carbis Bay to discuss topics ranging from Covid-19 recovery plans to the looming threat of climate change. The G7 is an organisation representing the world’s […]
Health, physical & mental
Frontline stories: NHS
CP: I imagine that your final year of training coinciding with the pandemic has made this an extraordinary year. Can you share some of your reflections on what it’s been like? MC: Since the pandemic hit, it’s just been much busier and we haven’t had an opportunity to stop and reflect properly. In practical terms, […]
Nations, regions & cities
What are the big economic challenges facing the new Welsh Government?
Despite the gradual re-opening of the economy and easing of restrictions over recent weeks and months, the pandemic continues to take a heavy toll on the Welsh economy. Output remains well below pre-pandemic levels, especially for the hardest hit sectors. A significant share of the workforce – 159,000 workers as of the end of March […]
Data stories
Covid-19: in numbers
Following the initial pandemic in Wuhan, China, cases of Covid-19 began appearing across the globe in March 2021. With infection rates soaring the world began to grapple with the idea of exponential growth. Source: ECDC In the UK the first lockdown was announced on 23 March 2020 as people began to be admitted to hospital. […]
Schools, universities & training
Update: How has the crisis affected children from poorer backgrounds?
Over the past 15 months, children across the country have suffered as a result of school closures and the loss of social activities. But children in poorer households carry a heavier burden across a number of dimensions – from learning losses to food insecurity. In terms of their education, many children from disadvantaged backgrounds were […]
Schools, universities & training
What does it mean to decolonise the economics curriculum?
The murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis and the toppling of the statue of Edward Colston in Bristol a year ago spurred many universities to start or accelerate work on ‘decolonising’ their curricula. A number of higher education institutions have also removed icons and honours related to colonialists and eugenicists, and written anti-racist codes of […]
