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Banks & financial markets
Dogecoin: what is it and does it have any value?
Dogecoin is one of a number of cryptocurrencies that have hit the headlines in recent months, gaining a lot of attention because of both its price rises and its uniqueness as a ‘meme cryptocurrency’ with a cult following. It has a market capitalisation of around $44 billion, making it the sixth largest cryptocurrency and the […]
News
International rescue
Newsletter from Friday 11 June Last week, the Economics Observatory celebrated its first birthday. Today, we mark 12 months of answering questions about coronavirus and the economy with the first issue of our new magazine. You can read ECO online – but if, like many of us, you’ve had enough of staring at a screen, […]
Data stories
Is football coming home?
The delayed UEFA European Football Championship starts today, 11 June 2021. The media are ratcheting up the anticipation and pundits are filling the airwaves. Some football fans will fervently believe it is their nation’s time to taste success. Others will just be hoping that their team does well. The definition of ‘well’, though, is a […]
Data stories
How does the Cornish economy compare with the rest of the UK?
This June, Cornwall is hosting the G7 (Group of Seven) summit. Leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, the United States and the European Union are gathering in Carbis Bay to discuss topics ranging from Covid-19 recovery plans to the looming threat of climate change. The G7 is an organisation representing the world’s […]
Health, physical & mental
Frontline stories: NHS
CP: I imagine that your final year of training coinciding with the pandemic has made this an extraordinary year. Can you share some of your reflections on what it’s been like? MC: Since the pandemic hit, it’s just been much busier and we haven’t had an opportunity to stop and reflect properly. In practical terms, […]
Nations, regions & cities
What are the big economic challenges facing the new Welsh Government?
Despite the gradual re-opening of the economy and easing of restrictions over recent weeks and months, the pandemic continues to take a heavy toll on the Welsh economy. Output remains well below pre-pandemic levels, especially for the hardest hit sectors. A significant share of the workforce – 159,000 workers as of the end of March […]
Data stories
Covid-19: in numbers
Following the initial pandemic in Wuhan, China, cases of Covid-19 began appearing across the globe in March 2021. With infection rates soaring the world began to grapple with the idea of exponential growth. Source: ECDC In the UK the first lockdown was announced on 23 March 2020 as people began to be admitted to hospital. […]
Schools, universities & training
Update: How has the crisis affected children from poorer backgrounds?
Over the past 15 months, children across the country have suffered as a result of school closures and the loss of social activities. But children in poorer households carry a heavier burden across a number of dimensions – from learning losses to food insecurity. In terms of their education, many children from disadvantaged backgrounds were […]
Schools, universities & training
What does it mean to decolonise the economics curriculum?
The murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis and the toppling of the statue of Edward Colston in Bristol a year ago spurred many universities to start or accelerate work on ‘decolonising’ their curricula. A number of higher education institutions have also removed icons and honours related to colonialists and eugenicists, and written anti-racist codes of […]
News
Work in progress
Newsletter from Friday 4 June A year since we launched the Economics Observatory to answer pressing questions about coronavirus and the economy, the news headlines remain dominated by the pandemic. There are concerns over new variants of the virus that causes Covid-19, debates on whether to ease international travel restrictions and doubts about current plans […]
Jobs, work, pay & benefits
Retraining: which are the best policies for getting people back to work?
The need to increase people’s skills, often through retraining, comes about because the skills required in jobs change as new types of jobs emerge while others disappear (Autor, 2015). Many economists link this transition to technological change (especially automation) and to changes in trade. Recessions and other unexpected events – such as Covid-19 – can […]
Jobs, work, pay & benefits
What kind of government support might replace the UK’s job furlough scheme?
At the end of March 2021, there were still around 4.2 million jobs furloughed in the UK. Many of these employees will have since been recalled by their employers as pubs, restaurants and venues have begun to re-open. Others will be brought back over the coming months as further restrictions lift. But some will not […]
Lessons from history
How has the UK labour market fared in recessions and recoveries since 1870?
The current rate of unemployment in the UK is 4.9%, which is a four-year high. With the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme scheduled to end in September, there are concerns that unemployment may increase further if firms are unable to keep their furloughed workers, who currently number 4.7 million people. A longer-term view can provide perspective […]
News
Digital divide
Newsletter from 28 May 2021 At the Economics Observatory we continue to survey the evidence to answer important questions about the impact of the past year on our lives and livelihoods. This week, we’ve featured articles focusing on the young, small businesses and the stock market value of technology companies – all of which have […]
Schools, universities & training
Generation Covid: how is the pandemic affecting the young?
History is repeating itself. The so-called ‘Spanish flu’ epidemic in the early 20th century led to increases in both poverty and income inequality – and it seems probable that Covid-19 will tend to produce the same effects. The impact on society of the pandemic of 1918 was still being felt 40 years later in the […]
Business, big & small
Update: Are small businesses ready to compete as consumers move online?
There is considerable evidence that small businesses are far behind larger firms in terms of selling and competing online. With the pre-pandemic trend for increased buying online having been turbocharged by Covid-19, many smaller companies could go out of business. Here we look at the latest data, which unfortunately do not provide much cause for […]
Trade & supply chains
How are Covid-19 and Brexit affecting ports in Wales?
Ports in Wales have experienced great change over the past 18 months, not only due to Covid-19 but also arising from the UK’s departure from the European Union (EU) at the end of 2020. With data now emerging on how ports have fared during this turbulent period, we can reflect on what needs to happen […]
Banks & financial markets
Are we in the middle of a tech bubble?
Shares in new technology companies in the United States have enjoyed a remarkable 16 months: the New York Stock Exchange Fang+ Index has risen over 100%. This index measures the performance of Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Alphabet (formerly Google) or the FAANG companies as they are collectively known, as well as other large tech […]
News
Food for thought
Newsletter from 21 May 2020 When I first started doing research on the food industry, I wasn't that interested in obesity. To me, it didn't seem to be an issue that economists had much to say about. And choosing what to eat felt like a decision that individuals were inherently better placed to make than […]
Families & households
How can policy reduce food poverty among children?
In the UK, 4.3 million children (31%) live in relative income poverty, a rate that is high compared with other European nations. One consequence of income poverty is difficulty in accessing food to make up a healthy diet, known as food poverty. The footballer Marcus Rashford brought this concern to the political foreground in 2020, […]
Families & households
Did food hardship increase during the pandemic?
Aerial footage showing cars queuing for miles waiting for food donations in the United States in the spring of 2020 was one of the most searing early images of the economic damage from Covid-19. Parallels with the bread lines of the 1930s Great Depression were drawn, helping to secure the swift and massive legislative response […]
Attitudes, media & governance
What is the likely impact of advertising restrictions on obesity?
The bulk of adverts for food and drink on TV are for products that are high in saturated fat, sugar or salt (HFSS) and/or are highly processed. From crisps and sweets to fizzy soft drinks, these products are less healthy – and evidence suggests that advertising leads people to consume more of them. In the […]
Public spending, taxes & debt
Would taxes on unhealthy foods reduce obesity?
Taxes on sugary soft drinks have been implemented in many places. In the UK, the Soft Drinks Industry Levy (commonly known as the ‘sugar tax’), which was introduced in March 2018, adds a charge of between 18p and 24p per litre on drinks depending on the quantity of sugar that they contain. These types of […]
Health, physical & mental
Why should we care about obesity?
Obesity in the UK has been rising dramatically in recent years, particularly for children growing up in deprivation. It is likely to have to negative long-term consequences for their health and for key social and economic outcomes, as well as raising costs to the NHS. Obesity is usually defined using the ‘body mass index’ (BMI), […]
News
Reality check
Newsletter from 14 May 2021 This week, the prime minister confirmed that the next easing of lockdown restrictions in England will go ahead on Monday. With the number of vaccine doses administered climbing steadily and case rates as low as they were last summer, there is some optimism in the air – at least here […]
Science, technology & innovation
Should patents on Covid-19 vaccines be waived?
There is a global debate right now about whether vaccine patents should be waived to allow low-income countries to produce doses for themselves. This discussion has come to the fore particularly in the light of the growing crisis in India and across South Asia. As case numbers in the region surge, vaccination rates remain low. […]
Health, physical & mental
How does the market for vaccines work?
The Covid-19 pandemic is still raging across the world, with some countries such as India experiencing unprecedented infection numbers with significant effects on both population health, and social and economic wellbeing. In other parts of the world, much progress has been made in managing the disease, most notably in Israel, where almost 60% of the […]
Transport & infrastructure
What is the future of commuting to work?
There is a great deal of speculation about the permanence of recent changes to our lives brought about by Covid-19. Will we adopt our new patterns of consumption, using the internet for shopping and entertainment, and our new patterns of work, which to a large degree involve working from home? One commentary on the Economics […]
Jobs, work, pay & benefits
How might increases in the UK minimum wage affect jobs, work and pay?
On 1 April 2021, the rates of the UK’s minimum wage increased. For workers aged 22 and under, this involved changes to the National Minimum Wage. For those aged 23 or over, this was through a rise in the National Living Wage (NLW). New minimum wage rates are proposed each year by the Low Pay […]
Pensions, savings & investment
Does the stock market reflect the economy?
Fluctuations in the prices of financial assets in the stock market can sometimes seem to be inconsistent with what is happening in the rest of the economy – what’s sometimes referred to as the ‘real economy’. For example, in 2020, US GDP fell by 3.5% – the largest contraction since the end of the Second […]
News
Arms race
Newsletter from 7 May 2021 Well over a billion doses of coronavirus vaccines have now been administered around the world. But with a total global population of nearly eight billion and wide cross-country variation in the percentages of people vaccinated, a huge number of arms are still awaiting injections. And as the World Health Organization […]
Recession & recovery
Is higher productivity at odds with improved wellbeing in post-pandemic Wales?
The economic impact of Covid-19 has been severe across the UK, with Wales no exception. Restrictions on business activity have meant furloughing thousands of employees, and this has had a negative effect on how much workers are able to produce – their ‘labour productivity’. In Wales, this may have compounded an already sizeable and widening […]
Business, big & small
Update: Which firms and industries have been most affected by Covid-19?
The pandemic has affected all industries, but it has had a bigger impact on some firms and sectors than on others. The risks of infection from different activities, the ability of businesses to operate remotely and the policies to contain the spread of the virus have each played a role. These have all affected current […]
Aid & international development
Vaccine nationalism: why do some countries cooperate and others go it alone?
The UK’s rollout of vaccines is proceeding at a fast pace. Over 46 million doses have been administered and, at its peak, the rate briefly surpassed 800,000 injections into arms in one day. The vaccination effort has become a key focus of government policy, as it is the tool through which we hope to exit regulated […]
Lessons from history
What is the economic legacy of Northern Ireland’s Troubles?
The recent rioting in Northern Ireland (NI) contrasts with the 23rd anniversary of the signing of the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement on 10 April. Looking at these events in juxtaposition provides a sharp reminder that while significant economic and social improvements have been made since 1998, much progress is still needed. For example, so-called ‘peace […]
News
Northern Ireland at 100
Newsletter from 30 April 2021 I was born in 1971, the year Northern Ireland turned 50. On 3 May, it will become a centenarian. For all of my childhood and the first decade of my adult life, Northern Ireland was a country marked by destructive terrorist violence. Bomb scares, army checkpoints, riots, sectarianism and brutal […]
Lessons from history
Ireland’s economy since independence: what lessons from the past 100 years?
A hundred years after achieving independence from the UK, Ireland is a prosperous and open European democracy. In terms of GDP per capita, Ireland is the richest country in the European Union (EU) with the exception of Luxembourg (Eurostat, 2021). But for many years, economists have recognised that using GDP per capita to assess living […]
Nations, regions & cities
What explains Northern Ireland’s long-standing problem of low productivity?
This year marks the centenary of Northern Ireland’s creation. During that time, its economy has persistently underperformed and it has remained one of the UK’s poorest regions. Central to this poor economic performance is low productivity. Northern Ireland produces less output per hour worked than most other regions in the UK. In turn, the UK […]
Lessons from history
What were the economic consequences of Irish independence?
This year marks the 100th anniversary of partition of the island of Ireland. On 3 May 1921, the 1920 Government of Ireland Act came into force, creating two devolved parliaments: one for the six counties of Northern Ireland; and one for the 26 southern counties that would become the Republic of Ireland. This division, and […]
Lessons from history
The Great Irish Famine: what are the lessons for policy-makers today?
With one million people dead and another million forced to emigrate, the Great Irish Famine of 1845-52 can be characterised as a ‘catastrophic risk’ – a low probability but high impact event (McLaughlin and Beck, 2020). When deaths are considered relative to the overall population, this famine overshadows practically all others in history: 12% of […]
News
Unequal effects
Newsletter from 23 April 2021 The lockdowns and social restrictions that have been necessary to control the spread of Covid-19 have affected some businesses and their staff far more than others. These unequal effects, felt throughout the pandemic, have been the central theme in several Economics Observatory articles this week. The stay-at-home economy? Whether or […]
Data stories
What’s been happening to employment of young people in the UK?
This week’s UK labour market data provide an update on increases in youth unemployment in 2020 across different parts of the country. Unlike data for the UK as a whole, youth unemployment data for the nations and regions are released on a rolling annual basis, rather than quarterly, in order to produce a more robust […]
Transport & infrastructure
How is Covid-19 affecting international travel and tourism?
Prior to Covid-19, travel and tourism accounted for 10% of global GDP and over 320 million jobs worldwide, making it one of the most important sectors of the world economy. The pandemic – the first on this scale in the era of globalisation – has put millions of jobs in the industry at risk (United […]
Business, big & small
How is Covid-19 affecting entrepreneurs and small firms in Northern Ireland?
The pandemic has had a negative impact on businesses of all sizes. But small firms and new firms have been particularly affected, as they are over-represented in those sectors that have faced most restrictions. These firms have typically faced a longer lockdown, which has had knock-on effects on their income and cash flows. Businesses have […]
Data stories
Data update: Labour market
This morning the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the latest data on the UK labour market. How are employment, unemployment, wages and job vacancies responding to the pandemic? The charts below provide some answers. Figure 1 Source: Office for National Statistics The job market has been fairly stable in recent months, with the UK’s […]
Jobs, work, pay & benefits
What is the future of working from home?
Working from home has grabbed newspaper headlines since Covid-19 struck, with talk of a ‘revolution’ in working practices. This coverage can give the impression that the days of working in an office are behind us. But working experiences during the pandemic have not been universal. There is a risk that the drastic change to working […]
Public spending, taxes & debt
How should governments source public services during a crisis?
The decision of whether or not to outsource particular public services is complex. The optimal policy for delivering resources – defined as the choice of service delivery and contracting strategy – varies according to a number of factors, including service characteristics, situational considerations and a number of financial, ideological and efficiency-related objectives. The success or […]
News
Regaining balance
Newsletter from 16 April 2021 As of Monday, people in England were once again able to get a haircut, visit ‘non-essential’ shops and enjoy a pint or two at their local. While going to the pub required wrapping up warm against the chilly April air, the partial relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions will have come as […]
Recession & recovery
How has coronavirus affected social capital in the UK?
The strength of a country’s network of social relationships – what can be described as its stock of ‘social capital’ – has a significant influence on a broad range of socio-economic indicators, including measures of health, inequality, productivity and economic growth. Data for the UK as a whole and for Scotland indicate that, going into […]
Data stories
A year in the UK labour market: what’s happened over the coronavirus pandemic?
Recessions usually happen when people or firms stop demanding things. The Covid-19 recession is not very different in this regard, even if the cause of the demand fall – the restrictions on mobility imposed to try to stop the spread of the virus – was very unusual. Faced with a big economic shock like this, […]
