Growing prevalence of disability: what implications for the UK economy?

The number of people in the UK reporting a long-term health problem that limits their day-to-day activities has surged over the past ten years, particularly among younger generations. This will affect their labour market prospects, as well as raising big challenges for employers and policy-makers.

Disability – a long-term health problem that limits an individual’s day-to-day activities – is a protected characteristic under UK equality legislation. This means that it is against the law to discriminate against someone in employment or other settings.

Around a quarter of the UK’s working-age population, or more than ten million people, currently self-report having a disability. This reflects a dramatic increase in disability prevalence over the last decade. Here, we explore the implications of this trend for the UK economy.

Trends in disability prevalence

The prevalence of disability is measured in the UK through large household surveys, particularly the Labour Force Survey(LFS). Individuals respond as to whether they have a long-term health problem, defined as lasting one year, and then whether this limits their ability to carry out day-to-day activities. They therefore do not need to identify as disabled.

Disability encompasses conditions relating to both physical and mental health, and it relies on an individual’s own interpretation of the extent to which their health conditions are restrictive. For this reason, disability prevalence depends both on health-related functional limitations among the population, and social and environmental barriers.

Between 2013 and 2018, disability prevalence grew by approximately two percentage points, the equivalent of about one-third of a percentage point per year (see Figure 1). The growth in disability prevalence since 2019 has been far more pronounced, at 0.9 percentage points per year.

At its peak in April-June 2024, 24.8% of the working-age population in the UK, or 10.5 million people, were disabled. The scale of the increase is stark, with about 50% higher rates of disability prevalence than in 2013, or 3.9 million more disabled people. While disability prevalence has declined slightly since then, it is too soon to say whether this marks the end of the rising trend.

Figure 1: Disability prevalence in the UK, 2013-25

Source: LFS, Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Notes: Author’s calculations based on ONS data Table A08 economic activity of people with disabilities between 2013 and 2025. Sample is aged 16-64. Government Statistical Service Harmonised (activity-limiting) disabled.
It is well established that the prevalence of disability is sensitive to measurement. These data have been collected via the LFS on a consistent basis since 2013, albeit with a recent discontinuity (from January to March 2019) due to reweighting the sample to ensure that it is representative of the population, addressing the declining survey response rates following the Covid-19 pandemic.

The increase in disability in the UK has been concentrated among young people, particularly women reporting mental health conditions, according to analysis from the Health Foundation and the Resolution Foundation.

But the extent to which this increase reflects changes in reporting and a widening of the definition of disability (prompted by greater awareness or a reduction in the stigma attached to mental health) rather than an increase in mental health conditions per se is unclear.

While the trends are also evident when using other more objective measures such as health records – consistent with the increase not simply being a result of changes in reporting – further data collection and scrutiny are required given the potentially profound differences in the economic implications.

A range of potential explanations for the deterioration in youth mental health has been suggested, including it being a consequence of the pandemic, austerity, inadequate health services and/or social media.

These factors raise important questions as to the role of growing intergenerational inequality and the extent to which the trend might continue in the future. Improved understanding of the causes of the increase in youth mental ill-health will be fundamental to supporting those currently affected, as well as reducing the inflow into disability among future cohorts of adults.

What are the implications for the UK labour market?

The implications of the trends in disability prevalence are potentially significant for the economy as a whole.

Health can be thought of as an element of the human capital stock (the knowledge, skills and wellbeing) of the workforce, thereby influencing the productive potential of the economy. Consistent with this, research shows that the effects of disability on individual social and economic outcomes are severe.

The employment rate for disabled people, at 54%, is nearly 30 percentage points lower than for non-disabled people (currently 82%). What’s more, the hourly disability pay gap remains at about 12%, which means that disabled people earn 12% less per hour than their non-disabled counterparts.

Even after adjusting for other personal characteristics of disabled people (for example, their age or educational attainment), these gaps are still found to be important, indicating that the presence of a disability is playing a role in these differences.

An expansion in disability prevalence due to a widening definition would be expected to be associated with narrowing disability-related disadvantage, as the expanding definition captures successively less severely disabled individuals.

While there was some evidence of this in relation to employment before the pandemic, when the disability employment gap narrowed, it has remained flat since then – the period when the growth in disability prevalence has been most pronounced.

The aggregate implications of rising disability prevalence for the economy, which can be thought of as the product of disability prevalence and its economic consequences, have therefore magnified considerably.

By way of example, the total employment loss associated with disability in the UK was 5.5 percentage points, but at its peak, it had risen to more than 7 percentage points (see Disability at Work).

This is reflected both in the high profile rise in inactivity rates (those of working age who are neither in work nor looking for work) due to long-term ill-health and sickness, and in the dramatic growth in disability-related welfare benefit payments. Combined, these have put significant pressure on the public finances and prompted a series of government inquiries and proposals for policy reform.

While the impact of rising disability prevalence on the number of people working and how much they are working (the labour supply) has attracted media and policy attention, the wider consequences have largely been overlooked.

The number of disabled people in employment has risen by 2.7 million, making disability a much more important issue for employers and managers. The trend has magnified the importance of disability-related in-work inequality, the availability of reasonable adjustments (including flexible work) and associated in-work financial support (such as from Access to Work).

The trend also reinforces the need to consider the effectiveness of schemes such as Disability Confident, which is designed to signal disability-inclusive employers. Much of this relies on better measurement and monitoring of disability within workplaces. This underpins recent proposals for disability pay gap reporting, which extend the existing requirements of firms to report their gender pay gap.

Fundamentally, the dramatic rise of disability among the workforce will require a shift in employer and government priorities and resources.

What are the wider implications for the UK economy?

Of course, the impact of disability is not confined to the labour market. Disability has previously been shown to increase the cost of living, leading to lower real incomes and economic wellbeing. In reinforcing lower average employment rates and earnings among disabled people, it is likely to reduce saving, wealth accumulation and financial resilience.

Disability is also likely to affect the composition of spending patterns and time use, with implications for patterns of demand and accessibility needs for products and/or services. The likelihood of increasing demands on public services such as healthcare, transport and housing will put further pressure on government budgets.

Given the increasing prevalence of disability among young people, there needs to be greater attention given to the implications for the education system and support for school-to-work transitions.

There is a further risk of intergenerational transmission of poor mental health resulting in higher levels of disability in future generations. The implications of disability further extend to social and political participation, and affect other household members, including through informal care responsibilities.

In short, it is critical that the dramatic expansion of disability and the widening coverage of the provisions of the Equality Act are understood by politicians, policy-makers, businesses and providers of public services.

What do we need to know?

Fundamental questions remain as to the causes and likely permanence of the rise in disability prevalence and the extent to which this trend might continue. In particular, further data collection and analysis are required to distinguish between its potential medical and social/cultural underpinnings, an understanding that is fundamental to informing the policy response.

The existing evidence also tells us very little about the extent to which youth disability might persist over the life course and the ‘scarring’ effect of a temporary youth spell of disability. Both will have important implications for the future performance of the economy.