World Cup 2026 previews for Groups G and H: what does scorecasting suggest?

The World Cup is now in full swing, half way through the first round of group matches and with traditional heavyweights Germany and the Netherlands having begun their campaigns yesterday, with mixed results.

But we still await the first appearance of the six teams that scorecasting analysis suggests are most likely to win the tournament – in order of likelihood, Argentina, France, Spain, Portugal, England and Colombia – nor indeed Senegal, Africa’s top team by Elo ratings, and many commentators’ dark horse pick, Norway.

Articles here over the past few days have provided previews of the first six groups in action: Groups A and B; Groups C and D; and Groups E and F. Here, we consider Groups G and H.

Group G

In Group G, Belgium are the strongest team (with an Elo rating of 1279). Iran are not far behind (Elo 1243), but Belgium’s defence is much stronger, shipping just 0.7 goals to Iran’s 1.1. This is reflected in Belgium’s 94% chance of progression from the group stages, relative to Iran’s 80%.

Egypt are just behind Iran, and have a weak defence, conceding 1.4 goals per game. New Zealand are the weakest team in Group G by some distance, with an attacking strength of just 0.8 goals per game, and a weak defence (2.4 goals conceded per game).

Belgium have a 53% probability of winning Group G, with Iran at 27% and Egypt 18%. The fight will be for the second spot, where Belgium and Egypt are at 28% and Iran at 34%. New Zealand are most likely to finish bottom of the group (67%), but thus have a 33% chance of giving themselves a shot at progressing – they have a 24% chance of making it through to the last 32.

Group G matches

The opening match in Group G between Belgium and Egypt is likely to be low-scoring – a 59% chance of at most one goal. Belgium have a 30% chance of scoring two or more; Egypt only a 16% chance. Belgium are 44% to win, Egypt 32%, revealing that it is quite an open match where an Egypt win would not be a particularly huge shock.

In Group G’s second match, New Zealand have a 20% chance of upsetting the Iranians, while the latter are clear favourites, 53% to win. New Zealand’s weak defence means that Iran have a 44% chance of scoring more than once.

Group H

In Group H, Spain are clear favourites, with the strongest attack (scoring 2.1 goals per game), and a strong defence (conceding 0.5 goals per game). They have a 99% chance of progressing to the last 32, as would be expected with their status as one of the favourites for the entire competition.

Uruguay have a slightly stronger defence than Spain (0.45 goals conceded), although a weaker attack (1.5 goals). Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde are the two clearly weaker teams in this group, with both having a small chance of progressing (15% and 30%, respectively).

Spain and Uruguay are very likely to occupy the top two places – there’s only a 2.7% chance that one of Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia finishes top, and a 13% chance that one finishes second. It thus looks likely that the two teams will be competing for third place, with Cape Verde slightly more likely to achieve that (54% to 32%). Spain are 66% to top the group, with Uruguay at 31%.

Group H matches

Spain face Cape Verde in the opening Group H match, and have an 89% chance of winning. As with Germany’s opening match, there’s a likelihood that they score significantly, with expected goals of 3.7 goals. There’s an 11% chance of a 3-0 Spanish win, and a 67% chance that Spain score at least three goals.

Likewise, Uruguay are heavily expected to win – a 72% chance of winning, and an expected goals total of 1.8, reflecting the team’s relative lack of attacking strength. There’s a 55% chance that Uruguay score more than one goal, and just a 35% chance that Saudi Arabia score at all.

Author: James Reade

Photo: muhammad kashif for iStock