The World Cup kicks off this evening, and over today and tomorrow, the teams in Groups A and B will start their campaigns. Scorecasting economics suggests that the likeliest results are wins for Mexico, the Czech Republic, Canada and Switzerland – the last game being the tournament’s first goalfest.
The first round of matches in the group stages of a World Cup football tournament is always significant. Our scorecasting model suggests that three points gives a team an 80% chance of finishing third place or better, and within that a 65% chance of being one of the eight best third-placed sides. All told, three points gives a team a 55% chance of progression. So these opening matches are not free hits, they will be crucial for how groups develop.
Group A includes co-hosts Mexico who are strongest in the group and have an 84% chance of progressing. They host South Africa, the weakest team in the group, who have just a 44% chance of progressing.
| Strengths | Probabilities | |||||||
| Country | Attack | Defence | Elo rating | Last 32 | Last 16 | Quarter- finals | Semi-finals | Final / Winners |
| Mexico | 1.094 | 0.875 | 1300.4 | 83.68% | 45.77% | 17.02% | 4.18% | 1.01% / 0.16% |
| South Korea | 1.049 | 1.673 | 1230.4 | 67.70% | 26.70% | 7.33% | 1.91% | 0.35% / 0.02% |
| Czech Republic | 1.217 | 1.448 | 1163.2 | 77.70% | 35.51% | 10.20% | 2.40% | 0.39% / 0.06% |
| South Africa | 0.773 | 1.868 | 1081.0 | 43.60% | 12.86% | 2.87% | 0.35% | 0.06% / 0.01% |
Mexico have a 37% chance of topping their group, South Africa just a 10% chance of doing so.
| Czech Republic | Mexico | South Africa | South Korea | |
| 1st | 32.71% | 37.14% | 9.64% | 20.51% |
| 2nd | 27.30% | 30.48% | 16.69% | 25.53% |
| 3rd | 23.43% | 20.38% | 26.55% | 29.64% |
| 4th | 16.56% | 12.00% | 47.12% | 24.32% |
Mexico’s attacking strength is solid at 1.1 goals per game, but isn’t the strongest in the group – that’s the Czech Republic’s 1.2. But Mexico’s defence is the best in the group at 0.9 goals conceded per match, while South Africa’s defence is the weakest (1.9 goals per match).
When matched up with their particular opponents, Mexico have an expected goals tally of 1.7 tonight against South Africa, and South Africa will be expected to score 0.8 goals. All told, that gives Mexico a 58% chance of opening the tournament with a win, with 24% chance of a draw, and just an 18% chance that South Africa upset the co-hosts. A 1-0 (14%) or 2-0 (12%) home win is the most likely scoreline, followed by a 1-1 draw.
| South Africa | |||||||
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mexico | 0 | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 14% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 12% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 6% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Tomorrow’s Group A match between the Czech Republic and South Korea has the former expected to hit 1.8 goals and the latter 1.2, meaning the Europeans are about 51% for the win, the Asians 26% with a 23% chance of a draw. With two slightly stronger attacks, more goals might be expected, and both a 1-1 draw and a 2-1 Czech win have a 10% probability.
In Group B, co-hosts Canada face off against Bosnia-Herzegovina, Qatar and Switzerland. Switzerland are the strongest team in the group with Canada just behind, while Qatar and Bosnia are significantly weaker.
Switzerland are about a goal per game better in attack, although Canada do have a stronger defence, conceding only about 1.1 goals per game to Switzerland’s 1.25. As such, both Switzerland (97%) and Canada (90%) should expect to progress to the last 32, while Qatar (26%) and Bosnia (49%) have much lower chances of doing so.
| Country | Attack | Defence | Elo rating | Last 32 | Last 16 | Quarter- finals | Semi-finals | Final / Winners |
| Switz-erland | 1.903 | 1.249 | 1277.1 | 96.83% | 61.64% | 23.02% | 11.51% | 4.58% / 1.59% |
| Canada | 0.901 | 1.052 | 1241.2 | 90.60% | 45.95% | 13.72% | 3.68% | 0.80% / 0.17% |
| Qatar | 0.941 | 2.881 | 1082.8 | 26.35% | 3.89% | 0.49% | 0.02% | 0% / 0% |
| Bosnia-Herz. | 0.672 | 2.687 | 1060.8 | 48.66% | 12.52% | 1.55% | 0.16% | 0.01% / 0% |
All told this leaves Switzerland as most likely group winners at 54%, followed by Canada at 37%, Bosnia have a 7% chance and Qatar just 2%.
| Bosnia | Canada | Qatar | Switzerland | |
| 1st | 6.72% | 36.84% | 1.98% | 54.46% |
| 2nd | 17.29% | 40.05% | 8.98% | 33.68% |
| 3rd | 41.96% | 17.23% | 31.15% | 9.66% |
| 4th | 34.03% | 5.88% | 57.89% | 2.20% |
Canada have expected goals of 1.8 against Bosnia, with Bosnia at 0.8, meaning that a 1-0 or 2-0 Canada win is most likely followed by a 1-1 draw. Canada have a 56% chance of winning, Bosnia just 18%.
Qatar against Switzerland has the potential to be the first goalfest of the tournament, with Switzerland having an expected goals of 3.2, and Qatar just 0.6, reflecting their respective strengths and weaknesses.
This means a 3-0 win for Switzerland is the most likely outcome at 12% with a 2-0 at 11%. Switzerland have an 87% chance of starting their World Cup campaign with a win. In terms of expected goals tallies, only one match in the group stages has a higher expected goals for a team – that match is England’s third match against Panama (3.6 goals).
