World Cup 2026 previews for Groups C and D: what does scorecasting suggest?

The World Cup has kicked off to fanfare – albeit with a rather uninspiring on-field exhibition at the Azteca stadium in Mexico City with co-hosts Mexico beating a poor South African team 2-0 (a scoreline we saw as the second most likely at 12%). This was followed by a strong showing from South Korea, upsetting our expectations in beating the Czech Republic 2-1. 

Group C

Group C includes Scotland returning to World Cup action for the first time since 1998, and as in 1998, Brazil join the Scots in their group.

Brazil are, of course, the strongest team by Elo rating, and have the strongest attack by some distance, at 2.1 goals per game. Morocco’s defence is slightly stronger (0.5 goals) than Brazil’s (0.6), but Scotland’s attack at 1.2 is stronger than Morocco’s (1.1). Scotland’s defence, though, is the second weakest in the group at 1.6 goals conceded, with Haiti conceding 3.0 goals per game.

As such, Brazil have a 98% chance of qualifying, and a 58% likelihood of topping the group. Scotland have a 10% chance of topping the group, but will probably be looking to be one of the eight best third-placed teams given that they have a 54% chance of finishing third in the group.

Group C matches

The two strongest teams in the group face off first, with Brazil taking on Morocco. The former are expected to score 1.5 goals to the latter’s 1.1, and as such, Brazil are favourites, with a 45% chance of winning to Morocco’s 29%. Given those expected goals, a 1-1 draw is most likely at 13%, followed by a 1-0 win for Brazil (11%). A 1-0 Morocco win is 8% likely.

Scotland’s first match is crucial for their hopes of progressing, coming against the weakest team in the group, Haiti. The Scots have expected goals of 2.0, with the Caribbean team expected to score 0.6. This gives Scotland a 71% chance of winning to Haiti’s 10%. The most likely scoreline remains a relatively modest 1-0 or 2-0 (15%) win for Scotland, but 3-0 is at 10%.

Group D

In Group D, co-hosts the United States go up against Australia, Paraguay and Turkey in what is the tightest group in terms of Elo ratings, with just 42 points separating the teams. Australia and the United States have the strongest attacks with 1.4 goals each, and Paraguay is the cagiest of teams with just 1.0 goals in attack and 0.7 goals conceded as a defensive strength.

As a result, the probabilities of progressing from Group D are very balanced; the United States has a 78% chance of progressing, Turkey 69%, Paraguay 65% and Australia 62%. Australia has a 19% chance of topping the group, Paraguay 20%, Turkey 27% and the United States 34%.

Group D matches

With such a tight group, a win in the opening matches becomes crucial; three points gives a team an 80% chance of reaching the last 32. The United States are expected to score 1.4 goals against Paraguay, and Paraguay are expected to score 0.9 goals, yielding a probability of winning for the United States at 49%, and Paraguay at 24%.

A draw is thus 27% likely to occur. Paraguay’s defensive approach means a 1-0 US win is most likely at 13% in terms of scorelines, with a 1-1 draw also at 13%. Paraguay have a 10% chance of edging the game 1-0, and there’s a 60% chance that there are at most two goals.

Australia have 1.6 expected goals for their match against Turkey, with Turkey at 1.4, reflecting Australia’s stronger attack. Australia are thus 41% to win, and Turkey 35%, and the slightly more attacking approaches of these two teams means that more goals seems likely.

While 1-1 remains the most likely scoreline at 11%; there’s a 50% chance that there’ll be more than two goals in the match, and a 95% chance that both teams will score. A 2-1 Australia win is the most likely decisive outcome in the match (9%).

Author: James Reade

Photo: gorodenkoff for iStock