World Cup 2026 previews for Groups E and F: what does scorecasting suggest?

All three co-hosts of the World Cup have now kicked off their campaigns, including a striking 4-1 win for the United States over Paraguay, who were expected to be defensively resolute.

Groups E and F begin today with heavyweights Germany and the Netherlands favoured in each, along with Japan in Group F. The Caribbean island of Curaçao make their World Cup debut tonight as the smallest nation, both by size and population, ever to take part in the tournament.

Group E

Germany are naturally the strongest team in Group E with the highest Elo rating and by some way the strongest attacking strength at 2.1 goals. Germany have a 98% chance of progressing.

Defensively, Ecuador are very tight, conceding just 0.5 goals per game, and they have a 91% chance of progressing. Ivory Coast follow behind with an attacking and defensive strength of a goal, and a 73% chance of progressing from the group. Curaçao are by some distance the weakest team in the group, with an attacking strength of just 0.5 goals and a poor defensive strength of 4.1 goals.

Unsurprisingly, Curaçao are 83% likely to finish bottom of the group, with a 49% chance of losing all three matches. Germany have a 61% chance of topping Group E, Ecuador 28% and Ivory Coast 11%. Ecuador are thus expected to finish second (42%), and Ivory Coast will hope to progress from third place with greatest likelihood (49%).

Group E matches

The opening match in Group E between Germany and Curaçao features the second highest expected goals for a team in the group stages after Brazil’s game against Haiti, with Germany expected to score 4.4 goals to Curaçao’s 0.6. This means that a 4-0 scoreline is the most likely at 10%, and there’s a 60% chance of Germany scoring six or more.

The match between Ivory Coast and Ecuador promises to be much more of a defensive masterclass; the former are expected to score 0.6 goals, the latter just 0.5. This means that a goalless draw is by some distance the most likely outcome in this match at 34%, and there’s a 69% chance that at most one goal is scored – 17% that it goes to Ivory Coast, 19% that it goes to Ecuador.

Group F

The Netherlands and Japan are the strongest teams in Group F, as Sweden’s stock has arguably fallen from previous stronger World Cup performances, including reaching the quarterfinals in 2018. Sweden only have a 50% chance of progressing, Japan at 82% and the Dutch at 89%. Sweden are defensively weak, with 1.75 goals per game shipped, and with an attacking strength of 1.55, we might expect matches involving the Swedes to have more goals.

Tunisia are only marginally weaker than Sweden on Elo rating terms, while they are generally a more defensively minded team, with an attacking strength of 1.0 goal and a defensive strength of 1.1 goals.

Both the Dutch (44%) and the Japanese (34%) have a higher probability of finishing first than in any other position; this reflects that they are the two strongest teams by a distance. Both teams have about a 75% chance of finishing in the top two, but Sweden and Tunisia only about 30% each. Sweden and Tunisia will be fighting for third place, with Tunisia slightly more likely to get there at 32% to Sweden’s 29%.

Group F matches

The Netherlands play Japan first up, with the Netherlands having an expected goals of 1.4, Japan at 1.3 – hence a tight match is expected. A 1-1 draw is most likely at 13%, and there’s a 40% chance that each team score at most once, with Netherlands at 10% to win 1-0, Japan 9%.

Similarly, Sweden against Tunisia will be tight, with the former having expected goals at 1.3 and the latter at 1.1. Sweden are 12% to win 1-0, Tunisia 11% to score the only goal, and another 1-1 draw is 13% likely.

Author: James Reade

Photo: Oleg Marchak for iStock