World Cup 2026 previews for Groups I and J: what does scorecasting suggest?

What makes a big shock? Sports pundits are quick to suggest that a surprising result is the ‘biggest shock ever’ in the aftermath of something like Cape Verde heroically holding Spain to a goalless draw. But how do we measure this? A shock must be contrary to expectations – and how can we measure just how far from expectations? 

Bookmakers’ odds are one method, but they require the collection of data from bookies going back decades – and odds don’t readily exist for the first few editions of the World Cup in the 1930s. 

Instead, we could use our scorecasting analysis. We’ve estimated our model over plenty of matches, and we can apply that back through World Cup history. From our data on attacking and defensive strengths, we have been estimating the probability of outcomes for forthcoming matches – but we can apply those back to matches through history.

We then calculate what’s called the Brier score – a mean squared error measure – across the probability of each team winning plus a draw. The draw is crucial since as yesterday’s outcome in Atlanta shows, it can be a huge result for a weaker team.

We find that Cape Verde holding Spain is the fourth biggest shock in the World Cup, narrowly behind Saudi Arabia’s 2-1 win over Argentina in 2022, the United States beating England in 1950, and Colombia holding the USSR – at the time, the European champions – to a 4-4 draw in 1962 – a match in which the Colombians trailed 4-1 with just 20 minutes remaining.

Cameroon beating Brazil 1-0 and Tunisia beating France 1-0 in 2022 also register as huge shocks – but both Brazil and France had already qualified as group winners and were resting many top players. 

Group I

In Group I, which starts tonight, France are the strongest team by Elo rating. The French were 2022 finalists, and they are one of the favourites this year, with a 12% chance of winning a third World Cup. Their attack at 1.7 goals isn’t as strong as Erling Haaland-led Norway’s 1.8 goals per game, but France’s defence is bettered only by Argentina in this tournament, at 0.3 goals conceded per game.

Norway are fancied by many for a deep run in the tournament, and they have an 89% chance of progressing from this group – although their Elo rating isn’t quite as strong as Senegal’s – highlighting that Group I has the potential to be fascinating, with Senegal also at 75% to progress. Iraq are the fourth team, and thus the weakest, with an attacking strength of just 0.8 goals, and a weak defence, conceding 2.2 goals per game.

France have a 51% chance of topping Group I, but Norway are also at 32% and hence cannot be discounted.

Senegal will hope to revive memories of 2002 when they defeated World Cup holders France in the group stage, finished second and qualified for the knock-out stages. They have a 28% chance of finishing second, and even a 15% chance of topping the group. But it’s most likely that Senegal will qualify as a best third-placed team – they are 43% to finish in that position. With a 78% likelihood, Iraq will finish bottom of the group.

Group I matches

The opening match in Group I is a repeat of the 2002 opener, and France have expected goals of 1.4 to Senegal’s 0.7, translating into a 55% chance of a French win, and a 17% chance for Senegal. A repeat 1-0 Senegal win is 9% likely to occur, but a 1-0 France win is the most likely outcome at 18%.

Group I’s second match this evening is between Iraq and Norway. Here, Iraq’s weaker defence means that Norway have expected goals of 2.8 to Iraq’s 0.9, and hence a Norway win is 76%, with Iraq just 10% likely to win. There’s a 77% chance that Norway score at least twice, with 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0 all 9% likely to occur. 

Group J

In Group J, which begins overnight tonight, World Cup holders and Economics Observatory favourites Argentina have the strongest attack (1.9 goals per game) alongside the best defence (0.2 goals conceded per game). They’re ranked first both by our Elo ratings and FIFA’s, and they have a 98% chance of progressing.

Austria is the second best team in the group, both in terms of rankings (34^th and 22^nd, respectively) and attacking (1.6) and defensive (1.0) strengths. They are followed by Algeria, with Jordan the weakest team with an attacking strength of 1.0 goal per game, but conceding 2.4 goals per game – and ranked 56^th by FIFA and 82^nd by our Elo ratings.

Argentina are 65% to win Group J and Austria are at 24%, with the Europeans most likely to occupy second spot (46%). There’s an 80% chance that Jordan prop up the final group table, and Algeria have a 51% chance of finishing third and hence potentially progressing – they have a 71% chance of making the last 32.

Group J matches

Argentina kick off against Algeria, and have an expected goals tally of 1.5 to Algeria’s 0.5, which means that the holders are 62% to begin their defence with a win. Algeria have just a 12% chance of causing a shock. As such, a 1-0 (20%) or 2-0 (15%) win for Argentina is most likely.

The second Group J match is between Austria and Jordan, and the former are expected to score 3.1 goals given the latter’s weak defence, with Jordan expected to score 0.8 goals. As such, a 3-0 win for Austria is 10% likely to occur, and there’s a 79% chance that Austria score at least twice.

Author: James Reade

Photo: LightFieldStudios for iStock