World Cup 2026 final group matches update: is football coming home? 

The World Cup enters its next phase today: head-to-head decider matches to settle the final group positions. And so the somewhat leisurely pace of matters to date will be accelerated, with three pairs of matches taking place overnight on each of the next four nights.

Quite a lot is already known: five teams have been eliminated – Haiti, Jordan, Panama, Tunisia and Turkey – and 16 teams are either mathematically into the last 32, or the chain of events that would lead to their elimination is simply not going to happen. 

Argentina, Colombia, France, Germany, Mexico, Norway and the United States, which have all won their first two matches, are automatically qualified. For other teams, like England, while they could yet finish in third place, being on four points means that they are certain to qualify as one of the eight best third-placed teams.

Argentina, our pre-tournament favourites, continue to see their likelihood of winning creep up – now at 31% after beating Austria 2-0 and with Portugal looking less likely to win their group, which means that the route to the semifinals for Lionel Messi and his team-mates is relatively straightforward (a 59% chance of getting there).

Of course, that does mean that there’s a 41% chance of Argentina getting eliminated by one of Cape Verde (there’s a 65% chance that this last 32 tie happens), Australia, Belgium or Paraguay (last 16), or Colombia or Portugal at the quarterfinal stage.

Spain are 13% to win the tournament having got back on track against Saudi Arabia, France are at 11% and England remain fourth favourites at 9%. 

Chart 1. Win probabilities at the final group stage vs opening group stage

Who are England’s prospective opponents in the knockout?

After their defeat by Croatia, Panama are now guaranteed to finish in fourth place in England’s group – and hence Thomas Tuchel’s team cannot finish below third and already have four points. The worst-case scenario could be thought to be a defeat to Panama with a Croatia win over Ghana with a sufficient goal difference swing to put England in third.

There is about a 0.2% chance of this happening, but there is an 8% chance that England do slip into second place. Such an outcome would actually be the worst-case scenario for England, as it would entail a high probability of facing Spain in the last 16.

Topping the group would be likely to see England face Congo – assuming the African team beat Uzbekistan in their final match – which, assuming they win, would be followed by Mexico in Mexico City, and if successful there, Brazil in the quarterfinals. 

England’s group winner path would see them face Argentina in the semifinal, should each team win their knockout matches to get there. 

England’s prolonged participation in the United States is contingent on them winning their group: they are 50% to make the quarterfinals from finishing first, but just 2% from finishing second. Finishing third is likely to entail facing Colombia in the last 32, then Canada or Switzerland in the last 16 and Argentina in the quarterfinals.

What are the most likely match-ups in the first knockout round?

Scotland’s most likely destination for the last 32 is now Mexico City, to face Mexico. There’s a 40% chance that this happens, reflecting their 80% chance of making history and escaping the group stages at a major tournament. But there’s a 17% chance that they return to Boston and play Germany instead. It all depends on the composition of the eight best third-placed teams.

Argentina versus Cape Verde is the most likely last 32 tie – 65% to happen, followed by Ivory Coast against Norway at 64%, this latter number reflecting the fact that France remain favourites to win their group despite being tied with the Norwegians on six points and facing them in a decider match. 

Austria versus Spain is 63% to happen. And while our model is not behavioural, there is an intriguing feature of the Algeria versus Austria match in Group J on Sunday night: with both teams on three points, there’s a high chance that the loser of this match will qualify as a best third-placed team (especially Austria, given their better goal difference).

But the loser then also faces an easier tie: the second-placed finisher in Group J will face Spain, whereas the best third-placed team will face the winners of one of Group B (Canada/Switzerland, 190/330 possible combinations), D (Australia/United States, 64) or G (Belgium/Egypt, 49). This has led one economist to anticipate the ‘disgrace of Kansas City’, with neither team going for a win.

But unlike the disgrace of Gijon in the 1982 World Cup, when Algeria were eliminated, there would be no third-party team to lose out in this ‘biscotto’ tie, since bottom-placed Jordan cannot finish above either of Algeria or Austria.

Ghana are very likely to finish third in England’s group, which guarantees that they will face the winner of Group K – Colombia (51%) or Portugal (48%) England’s most likely last 32 opponent remains Congo (33%), and the United States are still most likely to face Bosnia (46%). Croatia versus Portugal, as potentially the two second-placed teams in K and L, is 47%, and South Korea against Switzerland is also 47%.

Much has been written about the extent to which many outcomes have already been decided ahead of the final round of group matches, reducing to some extent the uncertainty on offer. This is most likely to be the result simply of a larger tournament, where more imbalances are likely between teams. But more specifically, there are just more groups in which things can be determined given that this format has only previously been used for tournaments of 24 teams.

What are the possible outcomes of England and Scotland’s last group matches?

Scotland play Brazil late tonight, potentially needing a draw to ensure that they make it through to the knockout stage. The likeliest result, at 11%, is a 2-1 victory for the Brazilians, but the next likeliest is a 1-1 draw.

England’s last group match is late Saturday evening and a win would guarantee that they top the group. The likeliest result, at 14%, is a 3-0 England victory, with 4-0 at 12% and 2-0 at 11%.

Where can I find out more?

• Corridor of Uncertainty (parts one and two): Podcast produced by Jessica Hargreaves and Richard Bingham, with these episodes featuring James Reade. 
• Tournament design for a FIFA World Cup with 12 four-team groups: every win matters: Study by Mario Guajardo and Alex Krumer.
• Football Meets Data: A World Cup 2026 simulator with a regular X feed update.

Who are experts on this question?

• Eva Marikova Leeds, Moravian University
• Alex Krumer, Molde University College
• James Reade, University of Reading
• Carl Singleton, University of Reading
• Simon Gleave, Gracenote
• Daniele Paserman, Boston University
• Jessica Hargreaves, University of York
• Richard Bingham, University of York

Author: James Reade

Photo: Oliver Hasselluhn for iStock