Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

How vulnerable is the UK’s food system?

In an age of trade wars, armed conflict, pandemics and climate change, too little attention is being paid to the vulnerability of the global food system. The UK is not immune to the risks, which could lead to food shortages and civil unrest in the next ten to 50 years.

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Productivity & growth

What role has farming played in Britain’s long-term economic development?

Over the past few centuries, Britain has undergone three periods of major agricultural change. These revolutions in farming practice are closely tied to long-term economic development and highlight the country’s journey from pre-industrialisation to post-war recovery.

DATA HUB

Global agricultural output: sources of growth

This week is Farming Week at the Economics Observatory.

Today's #ChartOfTheDay shows that productivity gains accounted for 51% of global agricultural output growth between 2011 and 2022. This marks a shift from the pre-1990s period, when the expansion of land, irrigation and inputs drove growth.

Productivity growth in agriculture has allowed food to become more abundant and cheaper even as the world’s population has increased.

Aid & international development

Asylum seekers in Europe: where do people go and why?

As millions of people cross dangerous terrain to seek refuge in Europe, understanding the factors that drive them to go to particular places is crucial. It is also important to assess whether certain policies in destination countries deter or attract asylum seekers.

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Customs checks, differences in regulation and border delays have negatively affected EU-UK trade since Brexit. They’ve also cut the number of active firms and weakened competition. A range of policies could alleviate the effects: reducing the costs of firm entry is likely to have the biggest impact.

Nations, regions & cities

What transport policies could improve the UK’s productivity?

Towns and cities with effective transport within and between them host more productive businesses, which can pay higher wages. But with too few of such places, the UK suffers from low productivity. Making the transport investments we need locally instead of according to national plans would help.

Crime, policing & justice

Will digital failures undermine trust in the justice system?

Multiple reports of digital systems failures in the justice system have emerged in recent months. These incidents highlight a central tension in justice reform: while digital tools may improve efficiency and accessibility, they also introduce risks that can erode public trust in legal institutions.

Public spending, taxes & debt

What would be the effects of abolishing or reforming inheritance tax?

Inheritance taxes aim to raise revenue and reduce inequality of opportunity arising from differences in parental wealth. But current UK policy has little impact on social mobility. Scrapping the tax would benefit the wealthiest, while reforms could reduce unfairness and negative economic effects.

Pensions, savings & investment

Is gold a safe haven for investors?

The price of gold has risen in recent years, highlighting the role of this precious metal as a stable investment. While the value of gold is resilient and protected from inflation, its stability is not guaranteed in times of crisis.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

Labour market statistics: what’s been going wrong?

The quality and trustworthiness of economic statistics have been in the news on both sides of the Atlantic. Many of the issues have emerged since the pandemic, in particular as a result of low survey response rates. This form of data collection remains essential for understanding the labour market.

Families & households

How could the early years budget be better targeted to reduce inequality?

High-quality early education boosts children’s development, family income and national productivity. But current public spending on it in the UK is not targeted towards the most disadvantaged families. Policies to reshape early years investment could help to reduce, rather than widen, inequalities.

Families & households

Why should we invest in early childhood education and care?

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has announced a substantial expansion of ‘free’ childcare for one- and two-year-olds in England. High-quality childcare can improve children’s development, raise family income and boost productivity – but there can be negative effects from low-quality provision.

Transport & infrastructure

UK land and property: what’s happening with freehold and leasehold reform?

For decades, landowners have fought to maintain the legal structure governing ownership and occupancy of multi-tenanted residential blocks. But growing awareness of the legal jeopardy of being a long-term flat occupier – plus the economic constraints of land law – have prompted demands for reform.

Schools, universities & training

What’s at stake for teenagers in England awaiting their GCSE results?

The 16-year-olds who took their GCSEs this summer started secondary school in the middle of the pandemic. The results of these high-stakes exams will highlight the uneven toll that Covid-19 lockdowns took on learning, as well as the key role that good grades play in shaping future opportunities.

Aid & international development

Ukraine: what’s the global economic impact of Russia’s invasion?

Russia’s brutal invasion has driven millions into poverty and debilitated – but not quite destroyed – Ukraine’s economy. Meanwhile, sanctions are straining the Russian economy, but they are yet to end a war that has sown financial turmoil and personal hardship in the region and across the globe.

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