Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

World Cup 2026 previews for Groups E and F: what does scorecasting suggest?

While World Cup Groups E and F are likely to be dominated by Germany, Japan and the Netherlands, scorecasting economics suggests that in the groups’ first round of matches today and tomorrow, there’s a strong chance of further draws. But a thumping victory for Germany over tiny Curaçao is probable.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 previews for Groups C and D: what does scorecasting suggest?

The World Cup kicked off last night, and overnight, the United States will begin their campaign in what is likely to be a tight Group D, with a good chance of draws. Brazil and Morocco will dominate Group C, so Scotland’s match against Haiti is key to their hopes of progressing in the tournament.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 previews for Groups A and B: what does scorecasting suggest?

The World Cup kicks off this evening, and over today and tomorrow, the teams in Groups A and B will start their campaigns. Scorecasting economics suggests that the likeliest results are wins for Mexico, the Czech Republic, Canada and Switzerland – the last game being the tournament’s first goalfest.

DATA HUB

UK youth unemployment at highest level since 2014

UK youth unemployment has nearly doubled since 2022. The unemployment rate for 16 to 24 year olds not in full-time education has risen from 7.6% to 14.6%, its highest since 2014 and above the COVID peak. A weakening labour market is hitting young people hardest.

Data stories

World Cup 2026: 30 years on, is football finally coming home?

Scorecasting economics suggests that Argentina have a far higher probability of winning the 2026 World Cup than the bookies’ co-favourites, France and Spain. England’s trophy-winning likelihood is 8%; while Scotland have a 71% chance of finally going beyond the group stage of a big tournament.

MAGAZINE

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More often than not, the political answer to the North of England’s economic challenges is more trains. Yet while fresh investment in rail infrastructure may boost prosperity in certain places, it isn’t the catch-all solution that some politicians present it to be.

Energy & climate change

How do climate disasters affect pro-environmental behaviour?

Seeing others affected by extreme weather events like flooding, storms and heatwaves is not enough to change people’s behaviour. For the average person, a global problem leads to action only when it gets personal: we respond much more when our own postcode is affected by climate disasters.

Crime, policing & justice

Can strangulation laws reduce intimate partner violence and homicides?

Non-fatal strangulation is a dangerous and under-recognised form of domestic abuse, especially since it may leave little visible injury. Legislation that makes it a standalone offence will not only reduce violence inflicted on intimate partners, but also help to prevent escalation into homicide.

Public spending, taxes & debt

What are the Green Party’s economic plans?

The economic policies proposed by the Greens envisage a substantially larger state, higher public investment, higher taxes and higher government borrowing. The big question is whether a programme of this fiscal scale can be funded in a way that is credible to financial markets and avoids inflation.

News

No overall control

On Thursday 7 May, voters across England, Scotland and Wales will head to the polls. This week at the Economics Observatory, we have been examining the parties’ prospects – and what the economic backdrop tells us about how and why the political map is shifting.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

Which policies can both boost growth and help people on low incomes?

Stimulating growth is one of the government’s top priorities. Traditionally, reducing labour market insecurities has been pursued as a separate goal. But five policy areas could boost both productivity and equality: small and medium-sized firms, pay transparency, recruitment, localism and training.

Public spending, taxes & debt

Why do some people in the UK face marginal tax rates of over 60%?

Various adjustments to Britain’s tax and benefit system have created sharp spikes in marginal tax rates. Some families take home less than 40p of each extra pound they earn, blunting incentives to work or take promotions.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

Why is economic inactivity so persistent in Northern Ireland?

Economic inactivity has historically been higher in Northern Ireland than in the rest of the UK. Policies to address inactivity have long been in place, but there is a lack of understanding of the specific barriers facing people that lead them to be neither in employment nor actively seeking work.

Public spending, taxes & debt

What future for residential property taxation in Britain?

Council tax is unpopular, unfair and overdue for reform. An alternative would be to fund statutory services through central government, introduce a modest local service charge, and absorb stamp duty and capital gains tax on housing into a single recurrent residential land and property ownership fee.

Nations, regions & cities

UK local elections 2026: what are the prospects in Manchester?

Elections in the ten boroughs of Greater Manchester provide voters with an opportunity to pass judgement on Labour nationally. But the results may also reflect views on what’s been happening across the city-region, where productivity growth has been strong, and public health and transport improved.

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