Research evidence suggests that the UK referendum on whether or not to remain in the European Union had uneven social consequences. Younger people from ethnic minorities living in areas of the country with stronger support for Brexit experienced a deterioration in their mental health after the vote.
Political shocks are felt differently across different age groups and ethnic backgrounds. The composition of society, at both national and regional level, affects the way in which a political event or other shock affects people – not just economically but also in terms of their mental wellbeing.
A clear example of this idea is Brexit. Young people from ethnic minorities living in areas that voted more strongly to leave the European Union (EU) experienced a decline in their mental health after the referendum. This pattern did not appear among white British youth nor among older members of ethnic minority groups.
This suggests that political shocks linked to immigration debates can affect people’s wellbeing, particularly among groups already facing social disadvantage. Age is also an important component. The demography of an area interacts with its socio-economic and political context, shaping how political shocks (such as the referendum) affect individual people.
Why might Brexit matter for mental health?
The 2016 referendum went beyond a vote on EU membership. It reshaped UK public debate around immigration, national identity and belonging. The Leave campaign frequently focused on ‘taking back control’, often linking economic and social concerns to migration.
For young people from ethnic minorities who were born in the UK, these narratives may have heightened feelings of exclusion. This matters because adolescence and early adulthood are already periods of increased vulnerability to anxiety and depression. In England, around one in five people aged 17-25 now has a probable mental disorder.
Evidence from Understanding Society – a household survey tracking the lives of a representative sample of people in the UK – further highlights that both ethnicity and age shape exposure to distress. Among individuals from ethnic minority backgrounds, around 27% of the younger cohort report feeling anxious or distressed, compared with about 23% among the older cohort.
For white British respondents, the corresponding figures are lower for both age groups: roughly 24% for the young versus 18% for older adults. The same political environment therefore appears to translate into markedly different wellbeing outcomes depending jointly on ethnic background and stage of life.
After the referendum, reported hate crimes rose sharply, especially in areas with high Leave support. This suggests – though this channel has not been tested directly – that local social environments changed in ways that may have affected how safe and welcome certain groups felt.
What does the evidence show?
Our analysis uses data from Understanding Society, a household survey that follows the same individuals over time, and focuses on UK-born people aged 16-29 in 2016. Mental health is measured using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12), a widely used indicator of psychological wellbeing.
The key comparison is across local authorities with different levels of support for Leave in 2016, looking at mental health before and after the referendum. The data show that mental health among ethnic minority youth deteriorated more in areas with stronger Leave support.
Moving from a relatively low-Leave local authority to a high-Leave local authority (roughly a one standard deviation increase in Leave support) is associated with a deterioration in mental health among ethnic minority youth of around half a point on the GHQ scale. This effect is comparable in magnitude to the pre-referendum mental health difference between white British and ethnic minority young people.
For young people from an ethnic minority background, mental wellbeing declines sharply as local Leave support rises, indicating worse mental health in more pro-Leave areas after Brexit (see Figure 1a). By contrast, white British youth show little change in mental health across Leave intensity, pointing to highly uneven impacts of the Brexit shock (see Figure 1b).
An important question is whether these effects are concentrated among the young or whether they extend to older generations. The evidence indicates strong age heterogeneity. Repeating the same analysis for older individuals from ethnic minority backgrounds shows no systematic relationship between local Leave support and subsequent changes in mental health.
In other words, the deterioration observed among young people is not present for older cohorts. This contrast suggests that the Brexit shock operated particularly through mechanisms that matter more during adolescence and early adulthood when identity formation, peer environments and school-to-work transitions are especially salient.
These results are robust to a wide range of checks, including alternative measures of mental health, different definitions of Leave ‘exposure’, and restricting the analysis to people who did not move location during the period of study.
Figure 1. Linear predictions over percentage of Leave vote
Source: Authors’ calculations based on Understanding Society, wave 5 to 9 (2015-2017).
Notes: The Figure reports predicted values of mental health (measured using the GHQ Caseness Index) across different levels of Leave vote share. Separate regression models are estimated for ethnic minorities and white British; in both models, individual longitudinal weights are applied. Panel 1.a shows predictions for ethnic minority youth, and Panel 1.b shows predictions for white British youth. Bars represent 90% confidence intervals.
Which aspects of mental health were affected by the vote?
The deterioration in mental health is not driven by a single factor. Among ethnic minority youth living in more pro-Leave areas, the referendum is associated with higher levels of anxiety and depression (sleep loss over worry, constant strain, inability to overcome difficulties, and unhappiness or depression), social dysfunction (ability to concentrate, feel useful, make decisions, enjoy daily activities, face problems and feel happy overall) and loss of confidence (low self-confidence and feelings of worthlessness).
The decline in confidence is the largest and most pronounced change, which is consistent with concerns about belonging, self-worth and perceived social acceptance in the aftermath of the vote. Importantly, these patterns do not appear among white British youth, nor among older individuals from ethnic minority backgrounds, living in the Leave-supporting areas.
Is this really about Brexit – or something else?
The analysis follows the same people over time, allowing us to account for fixed personal characteristics that do not change. We also exploit local variation in support for Leave that pre-dates changes in mental health, and placebo tests using data from earlier years show no similar relationship before the referendum. Finally, the evidence also shows more negative attitudes towards immigrants after the vote in areas with stronger support for Leave (see Figure 2).
Figure 2. Correlation between intensity of Leave vote and negative attitudes towards immigrants
Source: Authors’ calculations based on Understanding Society, wave 12 (2020-2022).
Notes: Each point represents the average at the LAD level. Individual cross-sectional weights are applied when calculating the LAD averages. Panel 2.a is based on the question: ‘Do you think that immigrants are good for Britain’s economy?’; Panel 2.b is based on the question: ‘Do you think that Britain’s culture is harmed by immigrants?’
What does this mean for policy?
The Brexit vote transformed the UK’s political and economic landscape. It also deepened existing divides around identity and belonging, with uneven social consequences across local contexts.
Using longitudinal data from Understanding Society that makes use of geographical variation in the intensity of Leave support, this study shows that the 2016 Brexit referendum led to a decline in mental health among young people from ethnic minority backgrounds. The effects are concentrated in early adulthood, a life stage already marked by transition and vulnerability, and are not evident among white British youth or older cohorts.
The evidence underscores the importance of understanding how rising populism and anti-immigration rhetoric affect the wellbeing of marginalised communities, particularly among younger people.
Policies aimed at improving youth mental health should take local social environments seriously, as support services may be especially important for minority groups living in areas where political shocks intensify feelings of exclusion.
Where can I find out more?
- The impact of the Brexit vote on young ethnic minorities’ mental health: 2026 working paper by Valentina Di Iasio, Corrado Giulietti and Jackline Wahba, published by the Centre for Population Change at the University of Southampton.
- Diverging mental health after Brexit: Evidence from a longitudinal survey: 2022 study by Charlotte Hervy, Nicolo Cavalli, Joan Madia and Catia Nicodemo, published in Social Science & Medicine.
- Trick or treat? The Brexit effect on immigrants’ mental health in the United Kingdom: 2024 study by Cinzia Rienzo, published in the European Economic Review.
Who are experts on this question?
- Alan Manning
- Lucinda Platt
