Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

From costs to culture: what’s behind falling fertility in rich countries?

Fertility rates have fallen rapidly in the UK and other high-income countries in recent years. Education, economic uncertainty and changing gender roles are among the factors that have played a part. Keeping the combination of causes in mind is essential for designing effective policy responses.

Playfair prize

Student data journalism

Productivity & growth

How could falling birth rates reshape the global economy?

More than two-thirds of humanity now live in countries where fertility has fallen below the level needed for a stable population. This fundamental demographic shift is transforming economies, raising questions about ageing populations, shrinking workforces and the sustainability of welfare states.

DATA HUB

AI pessimism in rich countries

Richer countries are consistently more pessimistic about AI’s impact.

In polling conducted by Ipsos for Stanford’s Artificial Intelligence Index 2025, every country with a GDP per capita below $36,000 – around the level of Malaysia or Chile, after adjusting for differences in local prices – expects AI to deliver more benefits than drawbacks. In contrast, richer countries, including the United States and European economies such as Switzerland, the Netherlands and Norway, are the most cautious. Singapore stands out as an exception: both wealthy and strongly optimistic about AI.

Click on the chart to read Finn McEvoy on who trusts AI.

Science, technology & innovation

Future shocked

From digital failures in the UK’s justice system to the Post Office tragedy and widespread anxiety about artificial intelligence across the world, the pace of technological change is testing the capacity of society’s core institutions to adapt and adopt.

MAGAZINE

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GOV.UK is intended to be the single point of online access for UK government information and services. The project leader in the Government Digital Service recounts the transformation in the early 2010s of over 2,500 fragmented public websites into a ‘boring’ but efficient and award-winning site.

Pensions, savings & investment

Is gold a safe haven for investors?

The price of gold has risen in recent years, highlighting the role of this precious metal as a stable investment. While the value of gold is resilient and protected from inflation, its stability is not guaranteed in times of crisis.

Science, technology & innovation

Who trusts AI?

AI tools like ChatGPT and Google Gemini have exploded in popularity over the last couple years. But while their adoption has undoubtably grown at a staggering speed, less is known about public attitudes towards the trustworthiness of these systems.

Crime, policing & justice

Trust and technology: what went wrong with the Post Office?

The Post Office scandal brought into sharp focus the risks associated with placing blind faith in technology. To learn from this troubling episode and start rebuilding public trust, policy-makers must challenge the idea of the infallibility of machines within the legal system.

Transport & infrastructure

UK land and property: what’s happening with freehold and leasehold reform?

For decades, landowners have fought to maintain the legal structure governing ownership and occupancy of multi-tenanted residential blocks. But growing awareness of the legal jeopardy of being a long-term flat occupier – plus the economic constraints of land law – have prompted demands for reform.

Crime, policing & justice

Will digital failures undermine trust in the justice system?

Multiple reports of digital systems failures in the justice system have emerged in recent months. These incidents highlight a central tension in justice reform: while digital tools may improve efficiency and accessibility, they also introduce risks that can erode public trust in legal institutions.

Science, technology & innovation

The rise of artificial intelligence: What next for the UK economy?

Over the past few years, artificial intelligence has exploded in popularity, power and potential. How this continuing trend affects the UK economy will depend on how both policy-makers and domestic firms respond to the development of new digital technologies.

Trade & supply chains

Global defence spending: What next for European military procurement?

With its fragmented production process, European defence procurement is inefficient and uncompetitive in comparison to the United States. A new approach, prioritising cross-country collaborations, could improve things, but would not be without its own challenges.

Productivity & growth

Have the UK’s northern cities really experienced a productivity miracle?

While official data points to a ‘productivity miracle’ in several large northern cities since 2019, a closer look suggests otherwise. This serves as a reminder to sense-check any data before using it, regardless of the source.

Nations, regions & cities

How might policy-makers improve Moldova’s economic prospects?

Compared with other former Soviet territories, Moldova is an outlier in terms of its poor economic performance. Political instability, together with a heavy dependence on remittances as well as international loans, means policy-makers must work carefully to improve living standards through strategic reforms and closer alignment with Europe.

Aid & international development

What are the big economic challenges facing the government in Iran?

Policy-makers in Iran face numerous economic challenges. The impacts of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine – together with longer-term issues related to high unemployment, rising inflation and worsening corruption – represent a difficult puzzle for Ebrahim Raisi’s government to solve.

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