Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

Which policies can both boost growth and help people on low incomes?

Stimulating growth is one of the government’s top priorities. Traditionally, reducing labour market insecurities has been pursued as a separate goal. But five policy areas could boost both productivity and equality: small and medium-sized firms, pay transparency, recruitment, localism and training.

Nations, regions & cities

UK local elections 2026: what are the prospects in Manchester?

Elections in the ten boroughs of Greater Manchester provide voters with an opportunity to pass judgement on Labour nationally. But the results may also reflect views on what’s been happening across the city-region, where productivity growth has been strong, and public health and transport improved.

Nations, regions & cities

Senedd election 2026: what are the big economic issues?

The 2026 election for the Welsh parliament is likely to produce a seismic result, one that would end over a century of Labour dominance in Wales. Two blocs of parties offer different visions for a time of high economic uncertainty and worrying trends in employment, earnings and living standards.

DATA HUB

London council elections – projected winner by borough

As we go to the polls this Thursday, London's council elections are looking fiercely competitive. Labour is projected to hold most boroughs, but more than half will be decided by five points or less.

Click here to read Tony Travers on London's 2026 council elections.

Banks & financial markets

Bond markets and the UK’s public finances: what’s been going on?

Recent increases in the UK government’s cost of borrowing have sparked debates about the public finances and the direction of economic policy. Some analysts have made misleading comparisons to the adverse bond market reactions to the previous government’s mini-budget of 2022.

MAGAZINE

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Longstanding questions around Scotland’s constitutional future remain open. But the more immediate challenges are economic and fiscal. Slow growth in living standards, an ageing population and rising public spending pressures mean that the next parliament will face difficult budgetary choices.

Nations, regions & cities

UK local elections 2026: what are the prospects in London?

For nearly three decades, Labour has depended on the capital as a rock-solid source of parliamentary strength. After the local election votes are counted, the party will have to think long and hard about whether it has taken London for granted and now risks being ejected from its safest seats.

Transport & infrastructure

Are more trains the answer to economic struggles in the North of England?

More often than not, the political answer to the North of England’s economic challenges is more trains. Yet while fresh investment in rail infrastructure may boost prosperity in certain places, it isn’t the catch-all solution that some politicians present it to be.

Aid & international development

How is the conflict in the Middle East affecting developing economies?

Developing countries are often vulnerable to fuel price shocks caused by global geopolitical tensions. As well as raising the costs of key items such as petrol and food, conflicts like the Iran war can force affected governments into expensive subsidies, further damaging already weak economies.

Public spending, taxes & debt

UK national security: what have we learned from strategic defence reviews?

The history of British defence policy has been one of constant imbalance between resources, capability and commitments, interspersed with reviews that fail to solve the fundamental problems. These appraisals are typically done at times of economic crisis when public expenditure must be controlled.

Nations, regions & cities

Why don’t we have nicer buildings?

The benefits of distinctive urban architecture extend far beyond the buildings themselves, but the costs are borne by the developers. This can lead to underinvestment in high-quality design – and it raises the question of whether policy should encourage better architecture.

Nations, regions & cities

How can the West of England contribute to UK economic growth?

The West of England has a highly educated and skilled workforce, globally competitive universities and leading industrial clusters. Yet there are wide inequalities across the region, and the potential for growth is constrained by problems with transport, housing affordability and lack of investment.

Productivity & growth

Have the UK’s northern cities really experienced a productivity miracle?

While official data points to a ‘productivity miracle’ in several large northern cities since 2019, a closer look suggests otherwise. This serves as a reminder to sense-check any data before using it, regardless of the source.

Banks & financial markets

How might distressed fintech firms affect UK growth and private debt?

Rare cases of severe losses in large fintech firms – what are known as black swan events – may harm UK growth and significantly increase debt among households and small businesses. Current regulations are adequate for addressing this tail risk, but there are challenges in enforcement.

Prices & interest rates

How might the Middle East conflict shape Europe’s inflation outlook?

The immediate economic fallout from war in the Middle East lies in the spikes in oil and gas prices, and in major disruptions to aviation and shipping. The countries most vulnerable to future inflation from the shocks are those that combine energy import dependency with weak external balances.

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