UK local elections 2026: what are the prospects in Manchester?

Elections in the ten boroughs of Greater Manchester provide voters with an opportunity to pass judgement on Labour nationally. But the results may also reflect views on what’s been happening across the city-region, where productivity growth has been strong, and public health and transport improved.

People living in all ten boroughs of Greater Manchester will be heading to the polls in a few days time. Council elections will take place on Thursday 7 May in Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford and Wigan. One-third of the seats on each council will be up for grabs.

As with many local government elections, both voters and the national media find it hard to separate local and national issues – and so perhaps inevitably the results in Greater Manchester and across the UK will be seen as a verdict on Keir Starmer and his Labour government in Westminster. But there is another lens through which to view these elections in Greater Manchester that may be just as relevant to voters.

The local authorities of the ten boroughs form the Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA), which is chaired by Andy Burnham, the city-region’s mayor, and by some counts one of the most recognisable political figures on both the local and national level. The next mayoral election isn’t due until 2028 and Burnham may not even be on that ballot paper, but his time and impact as mayor will still form at least part of the backdrop to these local elections.

The Labour party currently has a majority and leads councils in seven local authorities; and in a further two (Bolton and Oldham), it leads as minority administrations with the councils under ‘no overall control’ (NOC). Similarly, the Liberal Democrats run a minority administration in Stockport. But despite this dominance and a lengthy track record of holding power across Greater Manchester, Labour finds itself under pressure from several different political directions. And as the February 2026 by-election in Gorton and Denton showed, large, longstanding majorities can easily be reversed in today’s febrile and fragmented political landscape.

Reform UK, which came second in Gorton and Denton, currently has a handful of councillors across Greater Manchester, but can expect a significant increase in both councillors and vote share, especially in boroughs like Bolton, Bury, Oldham, Salford and Tameside. It is unlikely to be enough to take control of any of them with only a third of seats in play, but it might be enough to take more councils into NOC and to threaten Labour’s chances of leading them.

But Reform will also be aware that there is a strengthening anti-Reform sentiment and a willingness among voters to switch to the candidates that seem to offer the best chance of keeping them out. Combined with polls that have seen Reform’s national lead fall back in recent months, this may prove decisive in some areas.

As in Gorton and Denton, the beneficiaries may be the Green Party for which there is likely to be increased support, particularly in places with more students and graduates – look at areas in the centre and to the south of the city. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems have a series of historical strongholds, including in Oldham and Stockport, and they can be expected to put up a much stronger campaign and performance than in the recent parliamentary by-election.

But fragmentation and disaffection across the political landscape doesn’t stop there, with a growing number of very local parties and independents fighting seats across Greater Manchester and already having won seats, particularly in Bolton, Oldham and Rochdale. Look out for the Middleton Independents, the Failsworth Independence Party and similar candidates and parties in Royton and in Bredbury and Woodley (Stockport). There are also already ten independent councillors currently sitting in Tameside. With falling support for both Labour and the Conservatives and typically low turnouts at local elections, there will be good chances for such hyper-local candidates and parties to gather support and win council seats.

But returning to Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer, even though neither name will be appearing on any of the ballot papers, they will cast a long shadow over these elections – and both will have good reasons to look very closely at results in the city-region come the 8^th of May. Burnham is a hard figure to escape anywhere in Greater Manchester. He is popular and one of the reasons for this lies in the performance of the city during his decade as its leader. There is both robust evidence and more general ‘vibes’ to consider in this respect. Manchester (and Salford’s) skyline and the number of tower blocks and cranes suggest a dynamic city busily and confidently reinventing itself.

The BBC’s economics editor, Faisal Islam, has written about ‘the buzz around Manchester that is difficult to truly understand unless you spend time there’, adding that ‘it seems an entirely different space to the general despondent economic vibe across much of the country.’ From a more populist perspective, even Jeremy Clarkson has noted that ‘something has turned Manchester into a British Berlin. And that is high praise… Manchester is not Britain’s second city. It’s the first.’

National economic data and several recent studies appear to back this up, with economic growth running at a faster rate than across the UK as a whole for the best part of the last decade. At 3.1% annual growth sustained over ten years, Manchester’s economy has performed twice as well as that of the UK as a whole. Initially set out in an article for The Mill by James Gilmour of Metro Dynamics, ‘Is Manchester’s economy finally taking off?’, he asks if this is the most important chart in UK economics?

Figure 1. Productivity in major English cities

GVA per capita (2022 GBP). ONS data following Gilmour (2026)

Likewise in his Future North Substack, former Treasury economist JP Spencer confirms that Greater Manchester has been leading annualised growth rates in the UK since the pandemic. As the BBC’s Islam also notes, ‘the city of Manchester has seen incredible growth in the size of the economy per head, with the measure of GVA (gross value added) per capita at £61,589 in 2023, almost trebling since the turn of the century’. Given the gloomy record and forecasts for the UK-wide economy as a whole, he asks: does Manchester ‘raise some questions about how to kickstart growth?’

All together, it’s an impressive turnaround for an English city-region where so many, including Manchester, have underperformed both UK and OECD averages for some time. Burnham is quick to extol its devolution model and acknowledge the contribution of his predecessors in the city, particularly Howard Bernstein and Richard Leese.

The positive picture extends to devolution over some of the city-region’s public services with strong evidence and visibility of improvements in local health services, as shown by recent studies from University of Manchester health economists. Their assessment finds evidence of fewer alcohol-related deaths and hospital admissions for violence. Cancer screening rates and the number of same day GP appointments have both been increasing, as well as overall satisfaction for adult social care.

Lead author Philip Britteon from the University of Manchester says: ‘this study provides new evidence on the impact of devolution on health and care services, focusing on a large set of performance measures. Our findings suggest that devolution in Greater Manchester was associated with broad improvements in health services, social determinants of health, and subsequently, health outcomes.’

It is a similar story in public transport, where Burnham has invested much time and effort particularly re-establishing of control over the city-region’s buses. National survey data suggest a big increase in overall passenger satisfaction across Greater Manchester in the first full year of operation by the Bee Network of buses. The city-region saw the biggest increase in overall passenger satisfaction of any area in England, with improvements in perceptions of value for money, punctuality and on-bus passenger information, as well as an increase in satisfaction with value for money among fare-paying passengers to 79%, putting Greater Manchester way ahead of the rest of the country.

Burnham talks of ‘Manchesterism‘ as a model – one that pursues inclusive growth and seeks to share wealth and wellbeing across all of city’s residents and boroughs. He also describes the importance of a place-first (not party-first) approach to local policy-making and politics.

His name may not be on any of the ballot papers, but local voters will have a view on how well he is doing and whether it is making a difference to their lives and communities. While there are still plenty of people and places in Greater Manchester that might not be feeling these benefits directly, it may be enough of an effect for Labour to retain more of its traditional support, even where it is falling away in other parts of the country.

Starmer will already be sensitive to Burnham’s record and not just because of political rivalry. If the prime minister is able to achieve similar levels of growth and signs of turning public services around, then he may also see some of the credit that voters currently attribute to Burnham in Manchester. In other words, Manchesterism may just offer a foretaste of what Labour could achieve ahead of the next general election. It might also offer a policy template for trying to make it happen.

But the local elections across Greater Manchester are unlikely to see a complete reversal of national political and economic trends. Inflation and the cost of living remain huge issues for voters, particularly with recent price surges linked to the war in the Middle East. Even with some very promising economic data, there are many parts of the city that won’t necessarily be feeling the benefits of recent growth.Both Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham will be watching closely and hoping to see some cause for optimism in Greater Manchester. There may just be enough around the city-region for many Labour councillors to get elected or re-elected and to retain either leadership or control of more of the ten individual councils. Either way, there will be plenty of national as well as local attention on what

Author: Andy Westwood

Photo: Bardhok Ndoji for iStock

Where can I find out more?

The impact of devolution on local health systems: Evidence from Greater Manchester, England: 2024 paper by Philip Britteon and colleagues, published in the journal Social Science and Medicine.
Why is Greater Manchester the fastest growing part of the country? Finding answers to the productivity puzzle: Substack column by JP Spencer.
Is Manchester’s economy finally taking off? Article by James Gilmour at Metro Dynamics.
Hive of talent: what would it take to raise skills and productivity in Greater Manchester? An April 2026 report from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) by Aadya Bahl and Henry Overman.

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