The competition’s unbalanced nature means that the last three champions are by far the most likely clubs to lift the trophy this season. Scorecasting gives Manchester City a 60% chance of winning the title – with Arsenal next on 22% and Liverpool at 15%. No other team’s probability is above 1%.
The Premier League season kicks off in North London on Friday evening as champions Arsenal face newly promoted Coventry City. The race for the title is undoubtedly one of the most absorbing aspects of the footballing experience in England – and indeed, since the competition is broadcast so widely, across the world.
With three different winners in the past three seasons, following Manchester City’s four successive titles, arguably some semblance of competitive balance is returning to England’s elite competition. It is an article of faith that competitive balance matters: fans prefer to see matches, and indeed seasons, where the outcome isn’t known – or highly likely – at the outset.
This article of faith naturally accords with the economist’s typical view of the world – that markets and competition are optimal for organising much of human activity. In sporting terms, this translates into the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis, and it is something that in principle can be measured by the numbers of people watching sport – the attendances.
The Premier League is a salient counter-example. It is universally acknowledged that competitive balance has weakened over the past three decades.
In the 1992/93 season, the first of the Premier League era, the proportion of points won by the title winners was 6.7%; while between 2017 and 2019, this metric didn’t drop below 9.2% – a clear deterioration in balance. In 1992, the average attendance over the season was 21,136, whereas in 2019, it was 38,929. And in the 2025/26 season, when Arsenal accumulated 8% of all points won in the league, the average attendance was 40,822.
Broadening this analysis out a little, we can control for the level of competition and look at all the top English league divisions as introduced here at the Economics Observatory over the past two weeks – the Football League and National League.
Figure 1: Competitive balance in the top English leagues since 1888
Share of all points in the division won by the champions (or top two/four clubs). Regional divisions of the same tier (such as the old Third Division North and South) are averaged. Source: Scorecasting calculations from historical league tables.
Controlling for the level – and within each tier, the quality via Elo ratings – there is evidence that competitive balance matters a little once quality is taken into account. After all, fans want to watch quality. There is also evidence that this mattered more in the post-war and pre-Premier League era than it does now.
As such, the evidence suggests that higher quality competition matters, rather than simply more competition, for the paying consumer.
What’s going to happen in the Premier League this coming season?
We have applied our scorecasting model to the season ahead to get a sense of what might happen. This is not a perfect science, as it merely projects historical patterns into the future. Strong teams will continue to be strong, and newly promoted sides will continue to struggle. But we can at least put probabilities on these outcomes.
At the top, Liverpool last season failed to defend their title; will Arsenal face the same fate? Before Arsenal and Liverpool were Manchester City, who won the previous four Premier League titles, an unprecedented run in English footballing history (let alone Premier League history).
City’s return to the reckoning following their aberration in 2024/25 means that they remain strong in Elo rating terms. Their squad brims with experience and even if they have lost one of the greatest managers of all time in Pep Guardiola, they remain well placed. We give them a 60% chance of winning the Premier League – with Arsenal next on 22% and Liverpool at 15%.
No other team has a probability of winning the Premier League above 1%; Tottenham Hotspur are at 0.8%, Aston Villa at 0.7%, and Newcastle United at 0.2%. Xabi Alonso’s Chelsea have just a 0.11% chance, lower even than London rivals Brentford (0.14%).
Figure 2: How each club’s 2026/27 season could end
Probability of each final outcome from our season simulations. Use the buttons to sort clubs by their chances of the title, a top-four finish or relegation. Source: Scorecasting model, August 2026.
This rather reflects what has become a decidedly unbalanced competition. It doesn’t mean that these teams cannot win the Premier League – Leicester City in 2015/16 is the great counter-example – but it does mean that it is very unlikely.
The race for next season’s Champions League places (normally four for English teams) will undoubtedly be fierce as always. While Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool are 89% or higher and hence a shoo-in to qualify, there’s a band of challengers from Tottenham (30%) down to Chelsea (10%) that will fancy their chances. Even those beneath that band, including Manchester United (7%), will believe that they can make the top four.
At the bottom of the division, newly promoted Hull City and Ipswich Town look most likely to return immediately to the Championship, following an increasingly familiar pattern of promoted clubs struggling (and hinting at problems with the gap between the Premier League and the second-tier competition in England). Hull have an 87% probability of being relegated and Ipswich are at 81%.
Sunderland, who came up last season but spectacularly bucked the trend of promoted teams immediately being relegated by qualifying for Europe, still have a 61% chance of being relegated in their second season. Qualifying for Europe may yet prove to be a poisoned chalice, as it means many more matches needing to be played and hence requiring much greater squad depth.
Coventry City, the third newly promoted team this season, are 48% to return immediately to the second tier.
Again, the rather segmented nature of the Premier League is made clear by the next most likely teams for relegation beginning at just 5% (Leeds United and Nottingham Forest), 4% (Everton), 3% (Crystal Palace) and 2% (Fulham).
The expansion of the race for places in European competitions down to eighth and even ninth place means that this middle section of the Premier League does have something to play for. The real question though is whether that is sufficient to drive interest from the neutral observer, as opposed to just the fans of those teams.
What will happen on opening weekend?
On Friday evening, Arsenal have 2.7 expected goals against Coventry’s 0.7, suggesting an opening win for the champions – they are 80% to win, with the visitors at 7% to pull off a huge shock.
On Saturday, Everton against Crystal Palace will be tight, with the home team’s expected goals at 1.2 and the visitors’ at 1. Nottingham Forest will hope to have too much firepower (expected goals 1.4) to Leeds (1.1), while newly promoted Hull have expected goals of just 0.9 against Manchester United (1.8).
Sunderland will hope to use their extra year of experience in the Premier League when they visit Ipswich, as they have a 45% chance of winning, and 1.6 expected goals to Ipswich’s 1.3. Similarly, Brentford and Spurs looks set to produce goals, with the West London hosts having 1.7 expected goals to the North London team’s 1.5.
Manchester City will expect to beat Bournemouth at home on Sunday, with expected goals of 2.7 to their visitors’ 1. Brighton & Hove Albion and Aston Villa will play out what is likely to be the most evenly balanced match of the weekend, with both teams having expected goals of between 1.2 and 1.3. Liverpool (expected goals 1.6) will hope to edge Newcastle United (1.5) at St James’s Park.
The final opening match – the London derby between Fulham and Chelsea on Monday evening – could also be tight. The former have expected goals of 1.4; the latter 1.6.
