As August draws to a close, there’s a full round of matches across the top six tiers of English football. At the Economics Observatory, we’ll be scorecasting each game, looking at how results so far compare with our expectations for the season, and exploring clubs’ links to their local economies.
Over the last three weeks, we have introduced the various levels of English football as it returns for the 2026/27 season. We started with the National League, the fifth and sixth tiers where the famed pyramid really begins as the sixth division is split geographically into northern and southern sections. The following week, the 72 teams in the English Football League kicked off, and last week, England’s elite, the Premier League, got underway.
At the Economics Observatory, we are developing our infrastructure for tracing football clubs’ links to local economic and social fortunes, but we also plan to deliver regular updates to our forecasts, and evaluate how effective our previously constructed ones were.
In this update, we look at a range of this weekend’s fixtures across the leagues after taking a short look back over our forecasts for the season to date. As the season progresses, we will augment a discussion of results to forecasts with analysis of forecast error measures.
In the Premier League, our overwhelming pick is Manchester City; they trailed Bournemouth for a long time in their opening fixture before turning things around.
Arsenal and Liverpool are the only other two teams we give any real chance to winning the Premier League – Arsenal comfortably beat Coventry on the opening evening, while Liverpool needed a penalty awarded deep in injury time to salvage a draw at Newcastle United. While the latter result may have seemed unexpected, we gave Newcastle 1.5 expected goals to Liverpool’s 1.6, and hence a draw wasn’t totally unexpected.
At the bottom, Ipswich Town fired the first blow in the relegation battle by beating Sunderland 2-1 at home. Hull City’s (0.9 expected goals, 19% chance of winning) 2-0 win over Manchester United (1.8, 59%) was undoubtedly the most surprising of the opening weekend in the Premier League. The Tigers will hope it is the first of many such results.
What’s been happening in the Football League and the National League?
In the Championship, West Ham United haven’t started as well as their status as promotion favourites would suggest. They were held 2-2 at fellow relegated team Burnley, before losing 1-2 at home to London rivals Charlton Athletic.
Wolverhampton Wanderers, another promotion favourite, were held to a draw by Blackburn Rovers on the opening day, but won at Preston North End in their second match. Charlton have made a notably strong start given that our model predicts that they will struggle this season: they beat Derby County 2-1 on the opening day before their win at West Ham.
In League One, our overwhelming favourites, Leicester City, have started in unconvincing fashion, being held by promoted Notts County before losing at home to Burton Albion. Bradford City have surprised on the upside, winning both matches so far as they seek to build on last season’s strong showing when they reached the playoffs.
In League Two, we have picked Barnet as most likely to be promoted at a probability of 52%, and they have started in stellar form, with two wins from two matches. As happened last season, Crewe Alexandra are starting strongly, with two 1-0 wins to date, with a further seven teams with a win and a draw so far.
At the bottom, Salford, who we give a 22% chance of promotion, have lost to two likely promotion rivals so far in Barnet and Chesterfield (13%) and have zero points so far, alongside Rochdale and Shrewsbury Town.
We have picked Forest Green Rovers as likely champions of the National League with a probability of 35%; Macclesfield (76%) for National League North; and Dagenham and Redbridge (34%) for National League South.
Forest Green started with two wins before losing at home to another team that we pick to have a good chance of doing well – Boreham Wood. Macclesfield have won three out of four matches and are fourth in National League North; and Dagenham and Redbridge have won all four matches so far in National League South.
What does scorecasting anticipate for the fixtures this coming weekend?
This weekend in National League South, Dagenham and Redbridge go to recently relegated Truro City looking to extend their winning start to five matches. We give them a 45% chance of doing so.
Our National League North favourites Macclesfield travel to Darlington and there may be goals in this match. Darlington have expected goals of 1.4 to Macclesfield’s 2.1 – and the latter have a 53% chance of picking up all three points.
Figure 1: The weekend's fixtures, division by division
Source: Economics Observatory scorecasting model
Notes: Probability of a home win, draw or away win in every match of the coming round, from our match forecasts. Use the dropdown to change division; hover for the expected goals in each match.
In the National League, Boreham Wood, who won 3-0 at Forest Creen, will expect to beat Boston United at home on Friday night: they have a 57% chance of winning and expected goals of 1.7 to Boston’s 0.8. Forest Green will look to bounce back from defeat to Boreham Wood when they visit Fylde, and we give them expected goals of 2.0 on the Fylde coast, and a 56% chance of winning.
Carlisle United, our second favourites for the National League title, will look to ignite their season (won 1, drawn 1, lost 1) at Wealdstone. They have a 41% chance of winning at last season’s FA Trophy finalists.
In League Two, Barnet will seek to solidify their position at the top as Cheltenham visit the Hive. We give Barnet a 48% chance of winning to Cheltenham’s 27%.
Promoted Rochdale and York City have tough propositions this weekend – Colchester away and Exeter City at home, respectively. York have a 19% chance of winning, and Rochdale a 24% chance. Grimsby Town (39%) against Fleetwood Town (34%) and Oldham Athletic (36%) versus Swindon Town (40%) promise to be two of the most evenly matches encounters on Saturday.
Figure 2: Which of this weekend's matches are hardest to call?
Source: Economics Observatory scorecasting model
Notes: Every fixture across the top six tiers, placed by the favourite's chance of winning: the further left, the more open the match.
In League One, Leicester City will hope to get their first win at promoted Milton Keynes Dons. We give them expected goals of 1.6 (1.1 for the Dons), and a 50% (24%) chance of winning.
Strong starters Bradford City have a long journey to Plymouth Argyle, and just a 10% chance of continuing their winning start, with the hosts 72% to win. Luton Town will expect to win at Mansfield Town (51%) and Wigan Athletic (55%) at Wimbledon.
In the Championship, Hollywood-owned Wrexham host Tom Brady-owned Birmingham City in the latest instalment in their rivalry, with the Welsh team expected to win (60%). West Ham will expect to make light work of their short trip to Watford, where they have 1.8 expected goals and a 57% chance of winning.
Charlton will hope to continue their winning start when they host Preston North End – but that looks set to be one of the tightest matches in the division, as Charlton have a 39% chance of winning to Preston’s 34%.
In the Premier League, Arsenal have a tough trip to Aston Villa, although the hosts may be troubled by their poor start and transfer turmoil. Arsenal have 1.7 expected goals, and a 44% chance of winning to Villa’s 1.4 expected goals and 33% chance of winning. Leeds United host Brentford after both have made positive starts to the season; the two teams have the same expected goals of 1.3 and hence a draw looks likely.
Manchester United will hope to put their nightmare opening day defeat at Hull City behind them as they host Ipswich Town – the Reds have a 64% chance of winning and expected goals of 2.0. Hull will hope to build on that win as they travel to fellow promoted club Coventry City. But we give Coventry expected goals of 1.6 to Hull’s 1.2, and hence a 48% chance that the Sky Blues win their first match of the season.
Our title favourites Manchester City travel to Crystal Palace, where they will expect to win – we give them a 61% chance of taking all three points. Tottenham Hotspur will hope to put behind them a disappointing 3-0 reverse at Brentford on the opening day when they host Newcastle United: we give Spurs a 51% chance of getting their first win of the season, and 1.8 expected goals to Newcastle’s 1.2.
Where can I find out more?
- Scorecasting the Premier League: what prospects for the 2026/27 season?: our preview from last week, with an interactive chart of season forecasts for every top-flight club, match by match.
- Scorecasting the Football League: what prospects for the 2026/27 season?: our forecasts for all 72 EFL clubs, alongside what the demographics of clubs' local areas reveal about the divisions they play in.
- National League football: can we scorecast the 2026/27 season?: where the series began, on the fifth and sixth tiers and the point at which the pyramid really opens up.
