English domestic football returns this weekend with the opening games of the highest levels of non-league football. The likeliest division champions are Forest Green Rovers in the National League, Macclesfield Town in the National League North and Dagenham and Redbridge in the National League South.
Over the summer, we scorecast the FIFA World Cup – the world’s best players in the biggest ever edition of the pinnacle tournament of the global sport of football (or soccer, as one of the host nations refers to the beautiful game).
The bread and butter of English domestic football returns this weekend. The Football League’s Carabao Cup has its own weekend devoted to it, something that has only happened once before – in the empty stadium season of 2020/21 during the Covid-19 pandemic. But beneath the 92 clubs of the Premier League and the English Football League (EFL) sit another 72 clubs in the National League – the highest divisions of ‘non-league’ football in the country.
What is non-league football?
It is non-league as it is outside the Football League; in the more distant past, non-league football was characterised as being semi-professional or fully amateur. In the National League (the fifth division, one below the EFL League Two), most clubs are now professional, removing that distinction. Indeed, 22 of the 72 clubs, and 13 of the 24 in the National League itself, have had past EFL experience.
Beneath the fifth division National League level are two regionalised divisions: the National League North; and the National League South. To add to the potential confusion, the National League System actually refers to the top six tiers of football outside the Football League. Beneath those divisions, there are more regional leagues, with the number of such leagues increasing at each tier as we move down the pyramid.
As with the Premier League Foundation and EFL in the Community, each National League team has a community trust – a charitable arm that carries out work in the community. Sometimes that is as simple as doing PE in local primary schools, but it can often mean much more.
Even more than EFL clubs, which struggle with much lower centralised funding distributions than Premier League clubs, National League clubs have to operate on very tiny budgets for their work. Funding for these kinds of activities is dictated by success on the playing field, rather than by any need within a community.
One of the beautiful aspects of non-league football is that quite some way down the pyramid, attendance data remain abundant. The website www.nonleaguematters.co.uk covers down to steps 6 and 7 with good attendance data.
Naturally, the crowds at these levels are relatively small – but the level of regional disaggregation is greater and there are many hundreds of matches taking place each Saturday. Such data on willingness to pay at such a level of regional disaggregation simply does not exist in any other industry or sector.
At National League level in the 2025/26 season, average attendances were 2,813; at National League North level, they were 1,606; and at National League South level, they were 1,489.
Do the local economies in non-league look different to league?
But what of those communities? Looking at the local super output area (LSOA) level, these are areas that are reasonably populous; the average LSOA has a population of around 1,700, while in the National League, the number is 1,846, in the National League North, it’s 1,752, and in the National League South, it’s 1946. These are areas with above average claimant count rates – 4.1% in the National League, 4.6% in the National League North and 4.4% in the National League South.
But perhaps more starkly, these are areas with fewer working people; in the Premier League and the EFL, around 68% of the local population is of working age; in the National League, this share is 64%, North 62% and South 64%.
The non-working age share of these populations is primarily made up of older people, with Premier League and EFL clubs having about 11-13% of their local population at retirement age, and National League clubs having 17%, North 20% and South 16%. The contrast gets starker below the National League – at the level below, at least 20% of the local population is of retirement age.
Chart 1. The local communities of the football pyramid
Averages across the lower super output areas (LSOAs) local to each division’s clubs. Claimant count rates are for June 2026. Non-league divisions are shown in teal.
This distinction appears stronger still if we move to the middle layer output area (MSOA) level. We can also explore a little the political dimension here, by merging in the general election outcomes from 2024 and evaluating relative vote shares.
At Premier League and Championship level, Labour achieved vote shares of 47% and 43% respectively, but in the National League, it was just 31%, and 25% in the National League South (and in southern non-league divisions below).
Reform UK attracted just 12% of the vote in constituencies around Premier League clubs. But around League Two clubs, the share was 18%, and 19% in the National League North (and 20% in the Northern League, the northern non-league division one below the National League North).
The National League South’s Reform UK vote share was lower at 16% (the same as in League One), and in this league, the Conservative vote share was at 29%, almost as high as in the National League, where it was 30%.
Chart 2. The political dimension: the 2024 general election around the grounds
2024 general election vote shares in the areas local to each division’s clubs, merged at MSOA level, and change on 2019. Hover for exact figures.
Would we expect the characteristics of a local area to influence on-field outcomes?
The relationships uncovered down the footballing pyramid are interesting and in places striking. They do not necessarily represent anything causal – and they act as a starting point for more in-depth analysis.
A casual reading would be that football clubs reflect their local areas. Clubs can generate revenues per win only in relation to their local areas, by and large.
Hence a casual analysis notes that non-league football consists largely of northern localities falling on harder times with ex-EFL clubs (such as Barrow and Workington), alongside more up-and-coming areas in the south with future EFL clubs (Boreham Wood perhaps to follow Bromley).
That narrative falls down a little when the struggles of Crawley Town, Dagenham and Redbridge, Forest Green Rovers and Sutton United are considered – all southern clubs that progressed from non-league as far as League One, and have since either returned to non-league or look likely to.
It is also possible that clubs help to drag a local area up. Often the investment that comes into a club is from outside – the best example originating in non-league is Wrexham with Hollywood actors Ryan Reynolds and Rob MacElhenny investing in the club. Such interventions must have a local impact through increased employment, but equally they are very rare.
For now, our analysis considers the relationship between a local area and its club as independent of that club’s potential success – particularly in the season ahead.
What will happen in the National League this coming season?
Our EFL and Premier League forecasts over the next week or two will make use of the relative wage bill of teams, a variable that is well understood as being causal in football. It isn’t perfect, as teams will often over-perform (Brentford and Bromley are good examples), as well as under-perform (think Leicester City or Tottenham Hotspur). But in constructing such wage share predictors, we rely on the release of information by clubs.
Outside the Football League, such information is sparser. This is likely to change with the advent of the Independent Football Regulator, whose remit extends into the National League and hence will improve data transparency at clubs down to at least that level. Nonetheless, here, we restrict our modelling to each team’s Elo rating, whether or not they were promoted or relegated in the previous season, and whether they have been under- or over-performing in recent seasons.
In the National League, the two relegated clubs Barrow and Harrogate Town join a division with some established high performers – Boreham Wood and Carlisle United both amassed over 90 points last season, while Forest Green Rovers and Southend United have EFL experience and have competed in the playoffs in the last two seasons. Promoted from the National League North were AFC Fylde and Kidderminster Harriers, and promoted from the National League South were Hornchurch and Worthing.
Based on our 100,000 simulations, we find that the most likely champions of the National League are Forest Green Rovers (35%), followed by Carlisle United (24%) and Southend United (21%). Note that these clubs could still finish some way down the league too.
Only one team in each of these three divisions achieves promotion automatically. This has been something the National League has tried to address through its 3UP campaign in recent years, trying to get a second automatic promotion spot alongside a third team promoted via the playoffs.
The playoffs in each division are also somewhat unusual – although the Championship’s new playoff format for the coming season does resemble the National League somewhat. The teams finishing in sixth and seventh place face the teams finishing in fourth and fifth in a quarterfinal, or eliminator, tie. This is one-legged unlike EFL playoffs, which are two-legged.
The winners of that tie then visit the teams finishing in second and third for one-off semifinal clashes, with the two winners contesting the playoff final. In the National League, the final takes place at Wembley, whereas in National League North and South, the team finishing higher in the league hosts the final.
We find that Forest Green Rovers (58%), Carlisle United (66%), Southend United (68%), Boreham Wood (62%) and Halifax Town (50%) are most likely to reach the playoffs, followed by Scunthorpe (47%). The two relegated teams, Barrow and Harrogate Town, have an almost zero chance of winning automatic promotion, but about a 13-14% chance of reaching the playoffs – historically, it has been hard to immediately rebound back into the EFL.
At the bottom of the table, newcomers Hornchurch (82%) and Worthing (65%) are the clubs most likely to be relegated, followed by Yeovil Town and Eastleigh (both 37%). Fellow recent strugglers Boston United (29%) and Aldershot (31%) are also likely to be in the relegation scrap. Barrow and Harrogate Town each have a 12-13% chance of being relegated again, following in the footsteps of Morecambe and Scunthorpe United in recent years.
Chart 3. National League 2026-27: how the season could end
Each club’s probability of winning the title, making the playoffs, finishing mid-table or being relegated, from 100,000 season simulations. Use the buttons below the chart to re-sort; hover for exact figures.
What will happen in the National League North this season?
In the National League North, the highest profile club is Morecambe, a team that as recently as 2023 were in League One, the third tier of English football, but have been relegated in three of the last four seasons to be playing now at the sixth level. Brackley Town are the other club relegated from the National League. At the bottom, Harborough Town, Hebburn Town, Hednesford Town and Spalding United join the league.
From our simulations, we find that Macclesfield Town (76%) are overwhelmingly most likely champions, followed by South Shields (5%). This reflects the strong season that Macclesfield had last time out, getting to the fourth round of the FA Cup and reaching the division playoffs.
These two teams, with 23% and 62% respectively – plus Chester City (59%), Buxton (56%), Morecambe (49%), Chorley (46%) and Worksop Town (40%) – are most likely to make the playoffs.
We find that Harborough Town (97%), Telford (86%), Radcliffe Borough (41%) and Southport (26%) are the clubs most likely to occupy the four relegation places. Bedford Town at 23% and Hebburn Town at 19% also seem likely to be in the relegation battle during the season.
Chart 4. National League North 2026-27: how the season could end
What will happen in the National League South this season?
In the National League South, Braintree Town and Truro City were relegated from the National League, with Billericay Town, Farnham Town, Folkestone Invicta and Walton and Hersham promoted into the league. The league is geographically very southern, with the northern-most club being Braintree Town. Torquay United, Truro City and Weston-super-Mare are by some distance the most westerly of the league’s clubs.
From our simulations, we find that Dagenham and Redbridge (34%) are most likely to be champions, followed by Maidenhead United (16%). These two teams, with 59% and 67% respectively – plus Torquay United (66%), Maidstone United (65%), Dorking Wanderers (64%), Ebbsfleet United (56%) and Weston-super-Mare (45%) – are most likely to make the playoffs.
Ebbsfleet United will have a delayed start to the season as a result of their financial difficulties, with the National League announcing recently that they will need to supply the league with evidence that the owners can support the club throughout the season ahead.
This is similar to the situation in which Morecambe found themselves last season and with which they subsequently struggled. As such, it seems more likely that Ebbsfleet United will be battling against relegation than fighting for promotion, assuming that they can even compete in the league. This highlights the difficulty in making predictions at this level of football.
We find that Folkestone Invicta (68%), Salisbury City (68%), Dover Athletic (47%) and Hampton and Richmond Borough (34%) are the most likely clubs to occupy the four relegation places.
