There are clear favourites for automatic promotion in all three divisions. In the Championship, West Ham are likely to dominate, with Wolves and Burnley next. Leicester will be almost as strong in League One; Stockport and Luton follow. In League Two, the top picks are Barnet, Swindon and Rotherham.
After the summer’s alternative football entertainment of the World Cup, the domestic game has been resuming around the footballing world, and in particular here in England.
Do football clubs reflect their local areas?
When introducing our National League scorecasts last week, we documented patterns in economic inactivity down the divisions. The further down the pyramid you go, the more inactivity there is in the local areas of the football clubs – with higher claimant count rates, but also higher proportions of younger and retired people.
That was based on a snapshot of 2026 data, but it is also possible to investigate the extent to which such patterns evolve through time. Population estimates at local authority and district level go back to the 1980s, and hence we can merge in changing local demographics over many years for the areas around clubs.
We can then aggregate to the divisional level. This is an intriguing analysis since divisional composition changes through time. For example, in 1992, the proportion of the population at retirement age or above (taking it to be 65 despite changes over time) for the top five divisions was 14-17%.
Figure 1. Football clubs' local population demographics, by division
Source: ONS population estimates; Author's calculations, Economics Observatory scorecasting model
In 2026, the share is identical in the Premier League (14.7%) and the Championship (15%). But in League Two, it has risen steadily from 16% in 1992 to 19% by 2026. In the National League, it has risen from 15% to 20%, with similar increases in the National League North and South.
There are similar patterns for the proportion of people in an area who are of working age. In 1992, this was tightly within 63-65% across all divisions; by 2026, it is 68% in Premier League areas and 62% in League Two, 61% in the National League and closer to 60% in the National League North and South.
The clear divergence and divisional ordering that has emerged in these two metrics appears to be driven by people reaching retirement age; looking at the proportion of young people in local areas shows a similar dispersion in 2026 as in 1992, and no clear divisional ordering – the Premier League and the National League North have the lowest proportion at around 17.5%, with the remainder bunched just under 19%.
For all divisions, this proportion has fallen as the UK has aged. It was above 21% for Premier League and Championship areas in the mid-1990s.
These figures are not necessarily anything other than correlation, but the composition of the higher divisions appears to be increasingly those with fewer retired people and more working age people. Or to put it the other way round, football clubs in areas with more retired people and fewer working people have tended to drop down the divisions over the past three decades. Thus, arguably, areas with more challenging demographics from the perspective of their community trusts have suffered, since funding is much larger for Premier League clubs and declines as teams go down the divisions.
How will we scorecast in domestic football?
Football matches are similar, whether they are international ones or domestic, club-level games. There are some distinctions worth drawing out – not least that club football should display a greater degree of understanding between coaching staff and players given that national teams only get a few days a year to train together.
But reflecting this, our scorecasting model for the Premier League and the Football League is very similar to the one we employed for the World Cup in the summer. It is based on established methods of modelling goal arrival; as with group stages at international tournaments, the Premier League and the Football League break ties using goal difference and goals scored. Attacking and defensive strengths can make a difference.
There is one crucial difference to be emphasised: football clubs pay their players, and national footballing authorities compensate clubs for selecting those players. Players are matched to clubs through a highly competitive labour market, one that it is argued is highly efficient.
Economic research suggests that salary bills for football clubs are highly predictive of match outcomes (Hall et al, 2002). Our own analysis confirms this: the relative wage share is an important predictor of match outcomes alongside our Elo ratings, plus at this summer stage, transfer activity.
We thus broaden our goal-arrival Poisson regression modelling a little to factor in more variables. We then simulate all matches in the season ahead, and calculate the resulting league table. We repeat this process 100,000 times, which allows us to make claims about probabilistic outcomes.
What will happen in League Two?
In League Two, three teams are promoted automatically, followed by a four-team playoff tournament from which the winners at Wembley are promoted.
Our model sees Barnet continuing their upward progression, having just spent their first season back in the Football League; we give them a 52% chance of automatic promotion. Behind them, Swindon Town are expected to do well, a with 44% chance of finishing in the top three. Of the relegated sides from League One, Rotherham United are expected to do best, also with a 44% chance of automatic promotion.
Figure 2. English Football League Two 2026-27: how the season could end
Source: Author's calculations, Economics Observatory scorecast model
Beneath these three teams is a pack of 11 teams from Bristol Rovers down to Colchester United, who will all hope that they have enough to make the playoffs, and maybe even disturb the top three. This points to a League Two campaign not dissimilar to 2025/26 where the bottom set of teams were cast adrift from the top 18.
The pack of 11 teams is, in order of their probability of making the playoffs: Bristol Rovers (33% likelihood of a playoff spot; 27% likelihood of automatic promotion), Salford City (31%; 22%), Grimsby Town (28%; 17%), Fleetwood Town (27%; 15%), Chesterfield (26%; 13%), Crewe Alexandra (25%; 12%), Port Vale (24%; 12%), Exeter City (24%; 11%), Oldham Athletic (21%; 9%), Northampton Town (19%; 7%) and Colchester United (18%; 7%).
League Two is undoubtedly a fiercely competitive division, and all the teams in that pack will feel aggrieved at lower than expected probabilities of doing well. They’ll each hope to prove statistical models like our scorecasting model wrong as the campaign kicks off on Saturday.
At the bottom, Newport County (31%) and Tranmere Rovers (32%) have the highest chances of being relegated.
An unexpected team in the mix at the bottom, according to our model, is last season’s National League champions York City, with a 28% chance of being re-relegated. Were that to happen, they would become the first team promoted out of the National League to return immediately to non-league football. Given their strong last two seasons, this seems an inexplicable forecast. The club did, however, sack the manager who masterminded their championship-winning season on the eve of the new one and replace him with a manager (Stuart Lindsey) with a weaker track record.
Accrington Stanley, perennially expected to struggle, are tipped by our model to be in the mix at the bottom with a 27% chance of relegation – though as last season, they will look to prove the stattos wrong. Crawley Town, who also struggled last season, are again projected to be near the bottom, with a 22% chance of the drop.
Gillingham and Walsall had disappointing campaigns last season after strong starts. Both have a higher chance of being relegated than making the playoffs and hence may struggle more than their fans will hope.
What will happen in League One?
In League One, it’s hard to look beyond Leicester City for promotion. Having suffered successive relegations and appearing at this level for just the second season in their history, the 2016 Premier League winners will hope to have enough to win promotion – we give them a 72% chance.
Figure 3. English Football League One 2026-27: how the season could end
Source: Author's calculations, Economics Observatory scorecast model
Stockport County, defeated playoff finalists last season, have a 36% chance of promotion with a 45% chance of making the playoffs – they look set to have another good season. Luton Town, who preceded Leicester by a year in suffering successive relegations out of the Premier League, are also expected to improve on their 2025/26 showing and get promotion (27%).
Behind these three are a pack of four teams with about a 10% chance of automatic promotion – Barnsley, Oxford United, Plymouth Argyle and Wycombe Wanderers. They each have between a 36% and 38% chance of making the playoffs and hence will be eyeing a good season.
A clutch of teams in the middle will be looking for a better season than our model predicts – Peterborough United, Reading and Sheffield Wednesday, each of whom have a less than 1% chance of automatic promotion, and only a 4-7% chance of the playoffs. Of course, that isn’t to say they won’t make the playoffs – undoubtedly each will feel their squads have been strengthened sufficiently to mount a challenge. Sheffield Wednesday are emerging from a turbulent season when being relegated from the Championship, and beat Bolton Wanderers in the League Cup first round to post an early marker of intent.
At the bottom, our model predicts that Leyton Orient and Stevenage will have bad seasons, with 94% and 81% chances of relegation respectively. Both have acclimatised to life in League One after automatic promotion in 2023, and hence both will hope to prove this prediction wrong.
Behind them, Wimbledon have a 51% chance of being relegated, Mansfield Town have a 41% chance and Bradford City, who made last season’s playoffs, have a 39% chance. Cambridge United, promoted last season, have a 30% chance of an immediate return to League Two.
Bromley, last season’s League Two champions, have just an 8% chance of immediate relegation, with a 3% chance of making the playoffs even. Notts County and Milton Keynes Dons are the other promoted teams, both of whom will have an eye on the playoffs, with 12% and 26% chances respectively.
What will happen in the Championship?
In the Championship, after almost 40 years of an unchanged format, the playoffs will be different this coming season. The top two teams are automatically promoted, with the teams in third and fourth qualifying for the standard playoff tournament, and the teams in fifth to eighth taking part in preliminary eliminator ties. The team finishing fifth will host the team finishing eighth and the team finishing sixth will host the team finishing seventh in one-off matches to determine who will face the teams in fourth and third respectively.
Figure 4. English Football Championship 2026-27: how the season could end
Source: Author's calculations, Economics Observatory scorecast model
Relegated West Ham United, who have retained manager Nuno Gomez, will expect to compete at the top. We give them a huge 88% chance of automatic promotion, followed by a 12% chance of making the playoffs. Their fellow relegated teams, Wolverhampton Wanderers (53% and 45%) and Burnley (35% and 60%), will also expect to be in the final reckoning come May 2027.
Scandal-ridden Southampton, expelled from the playoffs last season, still have a strong squad despite that upheaval. They have an 11% chance of automatic promotion, with a 72% chance of making the expanded playoff tournament.
Hollywood Wrexham, just denied a playoff place last season, look much more likely to make it this time around – they have a 77% chance, with an outside 5% chance of automatic promotion. Wrexham are one of the teams that benefit most from the expanded tournament: they have an 18% chance of finishing in seventh or eighth, behind only Sheffield United (19%) and Middlesbrough (18%). Promoted Cardiff City will also hope to take advantage of the expansion, with a 15% chance of finishing in seventh or eighth.
At the bottom, Cardiff City’s fellow promoted teams, Lincoln City (63%) and Bolton Wanderers (77%), have the highest chances of being relegated, followed by Stoke City (22%), Charlton Athletic and Queens Park Rangers (both 20%).
