Questions and answers about
the UK economy.

Coronavirus disease 2019 and the global economy

Using daily data on the global coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) deaths, this paper investigates the corresponding effects on the global economic activity measured by the Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI). The empirical results based on a structural vector autoregression including crude oil prices (COP) suggest that a weekly increase of 1,000 in daily global Covid-19 deaths results in 10% of a cumulative reduction in BDI after one week and 22% of a cumulative reduction after three months. The effects of global Covid-19 deaths on COP are shown to be insignificant, where the oil price plunge of March 2020 mostly coincides with the corresponding OPEC disagreement.

Lead investigator:

Hakan Yilmazkuday


Florida International University, Miami

Primary topic:

Recession & recovery

Region of data collection:


Status of data collection


Type of data being collected:

Publicly available

Unit of real-time data collection


Start date


End date




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