Economics Observatory | Questions and answers about coronavirus and the UK economy

How might a wider Middle East conflict affect the global economy?

The world economy is underperforming as a result of tight monetary policies, weaker global trade, a slowing Chinese economy and uncertainty around the US election. An escalation of conflict in the Middle East could increase uncertainties, harming inflation reduction efforts and hurting growth.

1-3 October 2024 Bristol

Attitudes, media & governance

What are the economic impacts of institutions and technology?

Institutions that have been in place for centuries and cutting-edge new technologies both have big effects on society. Daron Acemoglu, co-recipient of the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, talks to Graeme Roy about how we can harness institutions and technologies for the common good.

DATA HUB

The Nobel news

Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson have been awarded the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences “for studies of how institutions are formed and affect prosperity.”

Today’s #ChartOfTheDay recreates and extends a chart from their seminal 2005 paper, showing the divergent economic paths of North and South Korea. The laureates present the case of the two Koreas as a natural experiment between two halves organised in radically different ways - a system of Soviet socialism and a system of private property with government.

In 1960, South Korea was one of the world’s poorest countries, with a GDP per capita comparable to that of Liberia or Guatemala. Today, it is a global economic powerhouse, with a per capita income more than 30 times greater than its northern neighbour.

Public spending, taxes & debt

Fiscal rules: what value if they change whenever politically convenient?

The UK has had seven different sets of fiscal rules since 2010, suggesting that they are simply not fit for purpose. Sound fiscal policy urgently needs the Chancellor to accept accountability and transparency, including an annual ‘state of the economy’ address outlining progress – and failure.

MAGAZINE

Read the latest edition of our magazine here

Restoring economic growth after a long period of stagnation is a key part of the solution for the UK’s many social challenges, including struggling schools, poor health and rising child poverty. The government’s coming choices on taxes, public spending and investment will be crucial.

Lessons from history

#economicsfest: How can lessons from the past help to improve our economy?

The UK faces major economic, social and environmental challenges, which include fixing ailing productivity, boosting social mobility and meeting climate targets. Each will require learning lessons from the country’s past and implementing clear and focused policy.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

Is work in the UK becoming more insecure?

The increase in zero-hour contracts and the emergence of the gig economy over the past decade have raised concerns that working life is becoming less secure. Evidence suggests that while the share of workers experiencing insecure work has not gone up, some groups are more at risk.

Public spending, taxes & debt

What’s the economic inheritance of the new UK government?

The Labour government will present its first budget in late October. The new chancellor has inherited an economy with at least four big problems: low productivity growth; stagnant living standards; persistent regional inequality; and a fiscal framework that is stifling much-needed public investment.

Health, physical & mental

How can we reduce obesity and improve diets?

Rising rates of obesity and other diet-related diseases are costly to people’s health and the NHS. Recommendations from the National Food Strategy set out a path to healthier – and less environmentally damaging – choices.

Business, big & small

Which policies can best support private sector growth in the UK?

Successive UK governments have struggled to promote economic growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007-09. In an interview conducted in late 2023, former business secretary Vince Cable talks to John Turner about some of the persistent challenges for policy-makers.

Science, technology & innovation

How can public investment in research improve UK economic performance?

Public investment in scientific endeavour is essential for the success of UK business and industry – and, more broadly, for a productive economy, a healthy society and a sustainable world. A report written early in the 2010s laid out the evidence on the central role of research for our future.

Lessons from history

How has infrastructure been financed in the past?

Stretched government balance sheets and elevated debt levels make it increasingly difficult to fund large-scale infrastructure projects. The first era of globalisation, 1880-1913 – when infrastructure bond issuances were a key means of financing such initiatives – offers valuable lessons for today.

Trade & supply chains

How has Brexit affected business investment in the UK?

Leaving the European Union has undoubtedly had effects on the UK economy. The most obvious ones will be on international trade. But Brexit might also have an impact on business investment, which is crucial for the economy to grow.

Trade & supply chains

Globalisation and backlash: how has world trade evolved over 300 years?

Over the past three centuries, economic nationalism has ebbed and flowed: from the mercantile system that Adam Smith described in 1776 through waves of globalisation, backlash and battles for supremacy.

Inequality & poverty

What different ways can policy-makers address inequality?

Longstanding economic fractures have been widened by the pandemic. In response, a range of policy actions are needed across the income distribution and at all stages of the economic process.

All Answers