Questions and answers about
the UK economy.

Current Research

List view

Economists from around the world are using real time data collection to better understand the impact the Covid-19 crisis is having on families, workers, firms and society, and how policies can help the recovery out of the crisis. Find out more about how these research teams are carrying out their projects, and what their findings are below.

Public firm borrowers of the us paycheck protection program

We provide an initial assessment of the US Paycheck Protection Program by studying the 273 public firms that received a total of $929 million in loans between April 7-27, 2020. Despite receiving significant media coverage, these firms comprise 0.3% o...
Primary Topic: Business, big & small
Secondary Topic: Prices & interest rates
Lead investigator: Anna Cororaton
Countries

Grey rhinos in financial markets and venue selection: the case of Covid-19

We investigate the effects of the Covid-19-induced shock in financial markets on aggregate venue selection/market share and market quality. We find that the shock is linked with an economically significant loss of market share by dark pools to lit ex...
Primary Topic: Banks & financial markets
Secondary Topic: Prices & interest rates
Lead investigator: Gbenga Ibikunle

The Covid-19 bailouts

US policy makers responded to the Covid-19 epidemic by providing $1.8 trillion in private sector bailouts. We collect data on all bailouts for publicly-listed firms, document empirical facts of the bailout programs and discuss policy implications. Mo...
Primary Topic: Business, big & small
Lead investigator: Jean-Marie Meier
Countries

Seller reputation and price gouging: evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic

We test the theory that seller reputation moderates the effect of demand shocks on a seller's propensity to price gouge. From mid January to mid March 2020, 3M masks were priced 2.72 times higher than Amazon sold them in 2019. However, the diffe...
Primary Topic: Business, big & small
Lead investigator: Luis Cabral

Covid-19, firm exposure, and firm value: a tale of two lockdowns

We study how a public health crisis affects firms at different phases of outbreak. Using an event study approach, we find that the stock market in China responded significantly to two symbolic events in the outbreak of Covid-19: (1) the lockdown of H...
Primary Topic: Business, big & small
Lead investigator: Haoyuan Ding
Countries

The impact of cash in a crisis: evidence from Dandora, Kenya during and after Covid-19

This study will deliver cash grants to microenterprise owners run by women in Dandora, Kenya during the Covid-19 outbreak. We will use a randomized controlled trial to study the impact of cash on economic outcomes both during and after the crisis. Al...
Secondary Topic: Recession & recovery
Lead investigator: Wyatt Brooks
Countries

Epidemic spreads of Covid-19 narratives and their effect on financial phenomena.

We identify and retrieve the most salient Covid-19 narratives and their evolution over time via text mining on daily open-ended questionnaires sent to US stockholders since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. This data is complemented with over 3...
Primary Topic: Business, big & small
Lead investigator: Daniel Borup
Countries

Expectations and behavior of firms in response to the Covid-19 pandemic

In March 2020, the German government implemented measures in response to the COVID19 pandemic that effectively led to a shutdown of a significant share of the economy. We study how firms adjusted to the ensuing crisis along different margins, includi...
Primary Topic: Business, big & small
Lead investigator: Sebastian Link
Countries

Asset price expectations during the financial crash of the Covid-19 pandemic

We measure daily price expectations about the share prices of six well-known publicly traded companies in the U.S. in an incentivized online experiment for a period of three months. Coincidentally, our experiment started on 19/02/2020, just one day b...
Secondary Topic: Prices & interest rates
Lead investigator: Carlos Cueva
Countries

Banks as bridges? firm funding during the Covid-19 cash crunch

We conduct face-to-face interviews with the Heads of Credit of over 400 banks in 35 countries in Emerging Europe, Asia and the Middle East to collect data on these banks’ Covid-19 policies. We cover whether banks temporarily deferred payments by ex...
Primary Topic: Business, big & small
Lead investigator: Cagatay Bircan

First to reach is last to forgive: evidence from the stock market impact of Covid-19

During December of 2019, the world became aware of a new global-scale threat called at first as Coronavirus, which changed the lives of millions of people around the globe. The coronavirus had multiple impacts regarding public policies, economic prod...
Primary Topic: Recession & recovery
Secondary Topic: Prices & interest rates
Lead investigator: Sherif M. Hassan

Covid-19 and investor behavior

In the beginning of January 2020, the Chinese authorities identified a novel type of the coronavirus, which rapidly spread from China all over the world. The World Health Organization characterized the spread of the novel coronavirus officially as a ...
Secondary Topic: Prices & interest rates
Lead investigator: Regina Ortmann
Countries

What are the effects of the Covid-19 crisis on labor demand? an analysis using job board data from Austria

In this project, we examine to what extent labor demand, measured in terms of vacancy postings, has changed during the crisis. Using data on various job characteristics, we analyze what type of jobs are most affected. These characteristics include oc...
Primary Topic: Business, big & small
Secondary Topic: Jobs, work, pay & benefits
Lead investigator: Omar Bamieh
Countries

Covid-19 and small firms: expectations, relief take-up and firm dynamics

Many small businesses have already been deeply affected by the Covid-19 crisis, leading them to lay off employees, temporarily close shop, or go out of business completely. In response, governments have passed specific provisions to help support smal...
Primary Topic: Business, big & small
Lead investigator: John Eric Humphries
Countries

The invisible risk: pandemics and the financial markets

Are pandemics systemically important to modern-day financial markets? This study uses the Covid-19 pandemic as a natural experiment for testing how large-scale pandemics affect the financial markets. Using hand-collected data at the firm level, I fin...
Primary Topic: Banks & financial markets
Lead investigator: Jordan Schoenfeld
Countries

Analysis of websites regarding firms’ reactions to corona pandemic in Germany

We analyze websites of about 1.3 Mio. firms in Germany twice a week searching for the term Corona and synonyms of it. Since our first collection of data on March 19th, 2020, the share of firms mentioning the pandemic raised by two percentage points w...
Primary Topic: Business, big & small
Lead investigator: Peter Winker
Countries

On the effects of Covid-19 on online labour markets: empirical evidence from Europe

In online labour market platforms, projects can be posted and completed anywhere in the world. They are – intensified by Covid-19 – at the core of the debate about the future of work and the conditions under which we work online. Using unique com...
Lead investigator: Frank Mueller-Langer
Countries

Market reactions to the arrival and containment of Covid-19: an event study

We study the short-term market reactions of US and European stocks during the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. Employing an event study, we document that stocks react significantly negative to the announcement of the first death in a given country...
Primary Topic: Business, big & small
Secondary Topic: Prices & interest rates
Lead investigator: Thomas Heyden

The economic impact of Covid-19 and subsequent debt relief policies

Our research project examines the economic effects of Covid-19 and subsequent debt and credit relief policies along the value chain. Our project examines the effects on the micro to small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) along the value chain as we...
Primary Topic: Business, big & small
Secondary Topic: Recession & recovery
Lead investigator: Giacomo De Giorgi
Countries

Nowcasting (real-time estimates of) aggregate economic activity and financial stability risks using national payment system data during Covid-19 outbreak.

Our goal is to construct a reliable measure to estimate the economic activity and financial stability risk in real time. We use a unique dataset obtained from the National Payment System (NPS) of the Bank of Russia. Dataset is updated daily and conta...
Primary Topic: Business, big & small
Lead investigator: Anna Burova
Countries