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Current Research

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Economists from around the world are using real time data collection to better understand the impact the Covid-19 crisis is having on families, workers, firms and society, and how policies can help the recovery out of the crisis. Find out more about how these research teams are carrying out their projects, and what their findings are below.

The global impact of Covid-19 on fintech adoption

We draw on mobile application data from 74 countries to document the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the adoption of digital finance and fintech. We estimate that the spread of Covid-19 and related government lockdowns have led to between a 22 an...
Primary Topic: Business, big & small
Lead investigator: Jonathan Fu

Macroeconomic effects and spillovers among countries of the Covid-19 pandemic

Since December 2019, the Covid-19 pandemic spread worldwide from China, passing to Europe in February 2020, and lastly in the US, in March 2020. According to the Air Transport Association, in February 2020 the global growth rate of air passengers dem...
Primary Topic: Recession & recovery
Lead investigator: Francesco Simone Lucid

Coronavirus disease 2019 and the global economy

Using daily data on the global coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) deaths, this paper investigates the corresponding effects on the global economic activity measured by the Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI). The empirical results based on a structural ...
Primary Topic: Recession & recovery
Lead investigator: Hakan Yilmazkuday

What do we learn from SARS-CoV-1 to SARS-CoV-2 evidence from global stock markets

This paper studies global stock market reactions to Covid-19 outbreaks caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2. The stock markets in countries that suffered from 2003 SARS diseases caused by a similar virus (SARS-CoV-1) react more quickly and strongly to the ...
Primary Topic: Lessons from history
Secondary Topic: Prices & interest rates
Lead investigator: Hong Ru

Covid-19 pandemic, public attention, and policy responses

Despite all countries being affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, the government's' responses have varied extensively in terms of speed, policy content, as well as the level of compulsion. We explore to what extent differences in the timing of...
Lead investigator: Cevat Giray Aksoy

Shutdown policies and worldwide conflict

We provide real-time evidence on the impact of Covid-19 restrictions policies on conflicts globally. We combine daily information on conflict events and government policy responses to limit the spread of coronavirus to study how conflict levels vary ...
Primary Topic: Crime & policing
Lead investigator: Nicolas Berman

Birds of a feather lockdown together: mutual bird-human benefits during a global pandemic

Feeding backyard wildlife has impure public good characteristics – it can satisfy specific human motivations whilst also improving bird populations. We document a surge in human interest in connecting with wild birds during lockdowns to address the...
Lead investigator: Michael Brock

The economic effects of Covid-19 containment measures

Many countries around the world have implemented stringent containment measures to halt the spread of the 2019 coronavirus disease (Covid-19) and limit the number of fatalities. Though crucial to slow the course of the pandemic, these measures entail...
Lead investigator: Pragyan Deb

Household behaviour: the Covid-19 “dance” phase

Until a vaccine arrives, forecasting economic activity is even more difficult than usual. For example, in the UK it is striking to see the difference between the IMF’s baseline scenario GDP loss of 6.5% for 2020, and the Office for Budget Responsib...
Primary Topic: Recession & recovery
Lead investigator: Stefanie J. Huber

Prediction bias in times of Covid-19: use of a linear infection-prediction model when the true model is exponential

The set of measures designed to halt the unrelenting transmission of Covid-19, prescribed by the World Health Organization and widely disseminated by local governments, include frequent washing of hands, use of hand sanitizers and face masks, social ...
Lead investigator: Ritwik Banerjee

Global evidence on the determinants of public trust in governments during the Covid-19

Using the Worldwide Covid-19 Attitudes and Beliefs dataset covering 108,918 respondents from 178 countries, the paper examines the determinants of public trust in governments during the Covid-19. It is found that older and healthy people trust more t...
Secondary Topic: Nations, regions & cities
Lead investigator: Giray Gozgor

International trade during a pandemic: boon or bane? a structural gravity approach

We empirically estimate the effects of the Corona pandemic on international trade. One hypothesis is that economies with a high degree of trade diversification are less harmed by pandemic-induced disruptions of trade flows. This analysis will give re...
Primary Topic: Trade & supply chains
Secondary Topic: Recession & recovery
Lead investigator: Daniel Osberghaus

Economics of Covid-19 multilateral foreign aid

This paper provides an empirical study of the link between Covid-19 aid to developing countries by multilateral organizations and the level of democracy in the recipient countries. In particular, we test whether developing countries with lower level ...
Secondary Topic: Nations, regions & cities
Lead investigator: Sherzod B. Akhundjanov

Coronavirus pandemic shock, economic preferences and beliefs: an online survey experiment

Preferences and beliefs (such as risk preferences), for individuals who experience dramatic natural disasters (such as a major hurricane), are unstable. The diversity and breadth of the Covid-19 pandemic provide a unique, although grime, opportunity ...
Lead investigator: Raymond Duch

Measuring worldwide Covid-19 attitudes and beliefs

We use a large-scale survey covering 58 countries and over 100,000 responses to study beliefs and attitudes towards citizens' and governments' responses to the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. Data collection is ongoing and we hope to maint...
Lead investigator: Dr. Christopher Roth

Cross-country economic policy response to Covid-19

With the Covid-19 is still spreading at a rapid pace, the social distancing measures and economic policy response to Covid-19 varies a great deal across countries. For example, Germany’s response to the Covid-19 is very aggressive compared to Swede...
Primary Topic: Recession & recovery
Lead investigator: Sajid M. Chaudhry

The Corona virus Covid-19 crisis

The research is based off the results of a 10-minute survey using the University's Qualtrics questionnaire system, surveying information on the potential personal impact of Covid-19 on one's own income and employment situation, personal hea...
Secondary Topic: Jobs, work, pay & benefits
Lead investigator: Prof. Dr. John P. de New

Do stock markets play a role in determining the Covid-19 economic stimulus? A cross-country analysis

This paper makes an innovative contribution to the literature by analyzing the determinants of the Covid-19 economic stimulus. In particular, we explore whether the stock market fall observed due to the coronavirus pandemic in many countries around t...
Secondary Topic: Recession & recovery
Lead investigator: Sajid M. Chaudhry

Covid-19 and conflict

What does Covid-19, and more specifically national responses to the pandemic, mean for inter-group conflict worldwide? We start by drawing an important distinction between interpersonal conflict (including, e.g., domestic violence) and inter-group co...
Primary Topic: Crime & policing
Lead investigator: Jeffrey R. Bloem

Disasters and defaults

How does the risk of a disaster, such as a climate disaster or an epidemic, affect the default risk of a sovereign country and its ability to issue debt? To analyze this question, we introduce disaster risk into a small open economy model with endoge...
Primary Topic: Recession & recovery
Secondary Topic: Prices & interest rates
Lead investigator: Toan Phan