Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

The British disease: what explains the relative decline of the UK economy?

Britain established global leadership in manufacturing, innovation and exports in the Industrial Revolution. Relative economic decline from around 1870 was an outcome of comparator countries catching up and overtaking. But there have also been policy failures and persistent institutional weaknesses.

Public spending, taxes & debt

Is public procurement the missing lever for UK industrial strategy?

The UK government spends around £400 billion a year buying goods and services, a far bigger slice of public spending than goes to research and development. To support the new industrial strategy, procurement needs to be designed and directed in a way that drives innovation, diffusion and growth.

Data stories

Scorecasting the new domestic football season: where have we got to?

As August draws to a close, there’s a full round of matches across the top six tiers of English football. At the Economics Observatory, we’ll be scorecasting each game, looking at how results so far compare with our expectations for the season, and exploring clubs’ links to their local economies.

DATA HUB

Football scorecasting: gameweek 4 in the EFL

A full round of EFL fixtures tonight and tomorrow: 36 matches across the Championship, League One, and League Two.

In 23 of them, we don't make anyone better than a 50% chance of winning.

Energy & climate change

Should the UK government allow more North Sea drilling for oil and gas?

In considering a return to North Sea exploration, five arguments relate to climate and clean energy: one’s bad; two provide a genuine case for limited additional production; and two strengthen the case against it. On balance, they suggest that an open-ended programme of new drilling would be unwise.

MAGAZINE

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The competition’s unbalanced nature means that the last three champions are by far the most likely clubs to lift the trophy this season. Scorecasting gives Manchester City a 60% chance of winning the title – with Arsenal next on 22% and Liverpool at 15%. No other team’s probability is above 1%.

Attitudes, media & governance

What is state capacity and why does it matter?

How effectively the machinery of governance enforces laws, regulates economic activity and provides public services is a key issue around the world. The Covid-19 pandemic and other policy challenges highlight wide variations in state capacity among countries – and the growing strain on public trust.

Transport & infrastructure

Urban heat regulating: what’s the value of nature-based cooling in cities?

With extreme heat becoming more common in the UK, nature-based urban cooling from green spaces and bodies of water can create economic value by protecting productivity and lowering expenditure on air conditioning. This is a measurable example of how natural capital supports economic activity.

Nations, regions & cities

Will the state of the high street have political consequences for the UK?

New PM Andy Burnham has made the renaissance of high streets one of his top priorities for good reason. As well as being places for shopping, they are often the heart of a community, both physically and socially. Whenever pubs, cafes, bookshops or supermarkets close, there can be political fallout.

Transport & infrastructure

Local government reform: what role for universal basic infrastructure?

England is undergoing a major re-organisation of local government. Universal basic infrastructure provides the framework needed to ensure that this is not just an administrative reshuffle, but a rare moment to re-imagine the relationship between the state, citizens and the places they call home.

Data stories

Scorecasting the Football League: what prospects for the 2026/27 season?

There are clear favourites for automatic promotion in all three divisions. In the Championship, West Ham are likely to dominate, with Wolves and Burnley next. Leicester will be almost as strong in League One; Stockport and Luton follow. In League Two, the top picks are Barnet, Swindon and Rotherham.

Schools, universities & training

How could the UK’s education system be reformed to equalise opportunities?

Reforms to the admissions procedures for UK schools and universities would make a big difference to many young people’s life chances.

Nations, regions & cities

Can friendships help to explain inequality of opportunity across the UK?

Where you grow up shapes who you know – and who you know shapes where you end up, not least in terms of your earnings later in life. Research is revealing that the way in which social connections are distributed across places is closely linked to economic opportunities.

Data stories

National League football: can we scorecast the 2026/27 season?

English domestic football returns this weekend with the opening games of the highest levels of non-league football. The likeliest division champions are Forest Green Rovers in the National League, Macclesfield in the National League North and Dagenham and Redbridge in the National League South.

Business, big & small

The great British pub: do we really need to worry?

The new prime minister has promised a cut in business rates for the country’s public houses as well as other social venues. Whether this helps pubs’ prospects of survival depends on how much of the pressures on these local institutions are really about costs, rather than changing consumer tastes.

All Answers