Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

World Cup 2026 final group matches update: is football coming home?

With the last round of group games beginning, the likelihood of pre-tournament favourites Argentina lifting the trophy has risen to 31%, with Spain now at 13%, France 11% and England 9%. England have a 50% chance of reaching the quarterfinals if they top their group, but 30% if they come second.

Prices & interest rates

The good, the bad and the ugly: what scenarios for UK inflation?

What happens in the Persian Gulf will be crucial for the path of inflation in the UK over the next 12 months. The most desirable outcome will happen if the peace deal holds, the Strait of Hormuz is re-opened and remains open, and the damage to energy infrastructure in the region is limited.

Productivity & growth

Have the UK’s northern cities really experienced a productivity miracle?

While official data points to a ‘productivity miracle’ in several large northern cities since 2019, a closer look suggests otherwise. This serves as a reminder to sense-check any data before using it, regardless of the source.

DATA HUB

FIFA World Cup 2026: height and age profiles

Across the teams competing at this summer's World Cup, some teams skew taller and older than the rest.

By confederation, nations from UEFA are the tallest, averaging nearly 2cm above than the next tallest confederation (OFC - Oceania) and 4cm above than the shortest (CONMEBOL - South America).

By age, there is some divergence. Players from CONMEBOL are the oldest, averaging just shy of 29 years, while CAF (27.5 yrs) and EUFA (27.7 yrs) are the youngest.

Schools, universities & training

France’s socio-economic attainment gap in schools: how might it be closed?

France’s educational system spends heavily but delivers unequal outcomes for pupils, mainly driven by differences in their social background. A targeted, low-cost policy framework, combining tutors and adaptive technology, could help to change that without new legislation or major fiscal commitment.

MAGAZINE

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To succeed, the industrial strategy needs to build strong local ecosystems in places where the eight priority sectors can thrive. The example of Greater Manchester shows why investment must be joined-up and focused on making the city-region a more productive place to do business across the board.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 after the opening group games: is football coming home?

With the first round of group matches complete, scorecasting analysis indicates shifts among the teams most likely to win the World Cup. Argentina have strengthened their position: they’re now 27% to lift the trophy. England have jumped to fourth favourites at 10%, with France and Spain both on 11%.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 previews for Groups K and L: what does scorecasting suggest?

World Cup Groups K and L, the last to start, are strongly linked: it’s likely that three teams will qualify from each and all would then face a team from the other group. England’s best chances of progress in the knockout stages would be to come third – but they should definitely avoid second place.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 previews for Groups I and J: what does scorecasting suggest?

The World Cup now has its first epic stories – claims of the biggest ever shock with Cape Verde holding Spain to a goalless draw; and Uruguay failing to beat Saudi Arabia. The next two groups bring highly favoured France into action, as well as Argentina, the team most likely to win the tournament.

Public spending, taxes & debt

Why do some people in the UK face marginal tax rates of over 60%?

Various adjustments to Britain’s tax and benefit system have created sharp spikes in marginal tax rates. Some families take home less than 40p of each extra pound they earn, blunting incentives to work or take promotions.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 previews for Groups G and H: what does scorecasting suggest?

The first round of World Cup Groups G and H takes place today and tomorrow, bringing highly favoured Spain into the action. Scorecasting economics suggests that like the Germans, the Spanish team should win their opening match comfortably. Three points also look likely for Belgium, Iran and Uruguay.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 previews for Groups E and F: what does scorecasting suggest?

While World Cup Groups E and F are likely to be dominated by Germany, Japan and the Netherlands, scorecasting economics suggests that in the groups’ first round of matches today and tomorrow, there’s a strong chance of further draws. But a thumping victory for Germany over tiny Curaçao is probable.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 previews for Groups C and D: what does scorecasting suggest?

The World Cup kicked off last night, and overnight, the United States will begin their campaign in what is likely to be a tight Group D, with a good chance of draws. Brazil and Morocco will dominate Group C, so Scotland’s match against Haiti is key to their hopes of progressing in the tournament.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 previews for Groups A and B: what does scorecasting suggest?

The World Cup kicks off this evening, and over today and tomorrow, the teams in Groups A and B will start their campaigns. Scorecasting economics suggests that the likeliest results are wins for Mexico, the Czech Republic, Canada and Switzerland – the last game being the tournament’s first goalfest.

Data stories

World Cup 2026: 30 years on, is football finally coming home?

Scorecasting economics suggests that Argentina have a far higher probability of winning the 2026 World Cup than the bookies’ co-favourites, France and Spain. England’s trophy-winning likelihood is 8%; while Scotland have a 71% chance of finally going beyond the group stage of a big tournament.

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