Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

Argentina’s second test: can the Milei government deliver lasting growth?

President Milei’s stabilisation is delivering results: inflation is down, growth has returned and exports are playing a larger role in the recovery. But Argentina’s second test is harder: turning macroeconomic stability into investment, jobs and higher real wages before the political clock runs out.

Nations, regions & cities

How might Chilean policy-makers deliver effective reforms?

Chile has lurched between very different political ideologies in recent years. The latest swing – towards a more market-oriented, right-leaning administration – should be interpreted as a call for a more effective state, not necessarily a smaller one.

Nations, regions & cities

Can Peru capitalise on the global copper boom?

A new commodities boom – triggered by the global transitions to clean energy and digital technology – is driving up demand for copper. Peru is one of the world’s leading producers of the metal, but political instability, weak institutions and illegal mining could curtail any potential gains.

DATA HUB

Peru’s GDP growth and copper price

Copper prices have climbed to record highs, but Peru's economy is growing at only around half the pace seen during the last commodities boom.

Can one of the world's largest copper producers turn surging global demand into sustained economic growth?

Data stories

World Cup 2026 epilogue: where next for scorecasting football results?

Elo ratings of national teams are a starting point for thinking about economic questions that pop up around big tournaments, including the relationship between the features of a country and its footballing success. Similarly, clubs can be linked to the socio-economic indicators of their local areas.

MAGAZINE

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The rapid development of India in the 20th century is a remarkable story, albeit one with uneven outcomes. Today, the country faces new pressures: from converting growth into health, education and human capability – through reducing dollar dependency – to navigating the transition to green energy.

Energy & climate change

Where next for India’s transition to green energy?

India has made substantial progress in shifting towards more renewable energy sources, with both wind and solar capacity having grown rapidly in recent years. But many challenges remain, with energy independence now a central part of the government’s economic ambitions.

Banks & financial markets

Does India's dependency on US dollars make the economy vulnerable?

India’s reserves remain among the world’s largest. But a stronger dollar, costlier oil and volatile capital flows are testing the resilience of those buffers. Greater export sophistication, a stronger international role for the rupee and lower energy import dependence could all reduce vulnerability.

Nations, regions & cities

What does India need to do to achieve its development vision for 2047?

India’s Vision 2047 development strategy is often framed as a race to high-income status. But state-level evidence shows that converting growth into health, education and human capability is a harder and more consequential task. The core challenge is to make growth work harder for human development.

Attitudes, media & governance

Live music in the UK: what’s the state of the industry?

Superstar musicians and sold-out arena tours indicate a thriving music business in the UK. But this hides another reality – one of rising costs, administrative barriers post-Brexit, declining earnings and grassroots venues closing. The live music industry is in urgent need of tailored support.

Trade & supply chains

How is India's trade landscape shaping up for the future?

After independence in the late 1940s up to the early 1990s, India’s trade policy was transformed: from protectionism to a liberalised economy. As the country moves towards greater global economic integration, remaining challenges include improving infrastructure and diversifying trade relations.

Public spending, taxes & debt

Should a UK wealth tax be devolved?

The Covid-19 crisis has renewed interest in the merits of introducing a tax on net wealth in the UK. A key issue to consider is whether such a tax should be operated uniformly across the country or with some elements devolved to the governments in Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast.

Public spending, taxes & debt

One-off wealth taxes: what can we learn from history?

Over the last century, a number of countries have tried to introduce one-off wealth taxes or capital levies in response to major crises. Their varying degrees of success offer valuable lessons for policy-makers exploring such an option in the wake of the pandemic.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 final preview – and why isn’t football coming home?

Analysis of the finalists’ attacking and defensive strengths gives Argentina a 58% chance of lifting the trophy, leaving Spain at 42% to win. By only losing to a late goal in the semifinal, England performed better than expected – though over-optimistic forecasts mean it might not feel like that.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 semifinals: is football coming home?

With the tournament now down to its final four, scorecasting analysis suggests that Argentina’s likelihood of retaining the trophy is up to 42%. Spain are on 22% to win, France 20% and England outsiders at 15%. There’s a 10% chance of England beating Argentina 1-0 – and a 21% chance of a 1-0 defeat.

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