Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

#economicsfest: What does food tell us about the economy?

The cost of living crisis has made clear the centrality of food in household budgets and people’s broader wellbeing. The nutritional quality of what we eat, where it’s grown and how much we pay for it are all crucial – not just for human health but the health of the planet.

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Lessons from history

#economicsfest: How can lessons from the past help to improve our economy?

The UK faces major economic, social and environmental challenges, which include fixing ailing productivity, boosting social mobility and meeting climate targets. Each will require learning lessons from the country’s past and implementing clear and focused policy.

DATA HUB

This week – Festival of Economics

This week is the Festival of Economics in Bristol.

Join us on Tuesday for a deep dive into 'Aid or defence: has something got to give?' — an urgent question at a time when the world faces 61 active state-based conflicts, the most since the Cold War.

Our #ChartOfTheWeek shows just how high the stakes are.

Click here to see the full programme and get your tickets.

News

The price of security

War and security come at a price. Global defence spending is rising in response to geopolitical threats – from Russia’s aggression in Europe to conflict in the Middle East. Governments face difficult choices as a result: balancing the need for security with other priorities and targeting defence investment to foster innovation and growth without draining public finances.

MAGAZINE

Read the latest edition of our magazine here

With its fragmented production process, European defence procurement is inefficient and uncompetitive in comparison to the United States. A new approach, prioritising cross-country collaborations, could improve things, but would not be without its own challenges.

Productivity & growth

Can defence spending boost growth and productivity in the UK?

The UK is raising defence spending to bolster national security. But unless this shift supports defence-related research, without sacrificing public funds for innovation in health, science and education, the result could be slower productivity growth, not faster.

Attitudes, media & governance

#economicsfest: How can the UK’s new government kickstart the economy?

Restoring economic growth after a long period of stagnation is a key part of the solution for the UK’s many social challenges, including struggling schools, poor health and rising child poverty. The government’s coming choices on taxes, public spending and investment will be crucial.

Prices & interest rates

What might be the macroeconomic cost of the war in Ukraine?

Russia’s economy looks likely to experience a deep recession following the country’s invasion of Ukraine. Increased spending on defence and refugees may limit the adverse effects of the conflict on Western European GDP, but it will to add to pressure on resources and drive up inflation.

Lessons from history

Can researchers predict conflicts and their consequences?

Wars have many economic, political and social consequences. From changes to technology, to the re-drawing of borders, to mass losses of life, conflicts shape human history. They are also extremely challenging to predict – both in terms of their causes and effects.

Public spending, taxes & debt

The UK’s public finances: is it time to reform the fiscal rules?

Boosting economic growth while maintaining sustainable levels of public spending is a huge policy challenge for the UK. The government’s self-imposed fiscal rules may themselves act as a constraint. Reforming the rules could help to revive the country’s stagnant economy.

Families & households

What are the effects of paid family leave programmes in the United States?

To compensate for the lack of national provision, nine US states plus the District of Columbia have launched their own paid family leave programmes, with four more in the works. Studies highlight the effects of these policies on health, fertility and employment, but there is still much to learn.

Prices & interest rates

What’s happening to the cost of rent in the United States?

Americans faced surging rental costs in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic. Since then, the cities and regions that have built the most houses have managed to bring prices under control. But in places where housing supply remains low, rents have continued to spiral.

Public spending, taxes & debt

Which taxes are best and worst for growth?

Tax affects economic growth by reducing consumer spending and lowering incentives to invest. But different fiscal policies have variable overall economic effects, with taxes on income better than those levied on corporate profits in terms of their wider impact on GDP.

Nations, regions & cities

What role could migration play in the reconstruction of Ukraine?

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has triggered the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II, with nearly six million Ukrainians displaced worldwide. This creates a critical challenge looking ahead to post-war reconstruction. With over 200,000 Ukrainians currently here in the UK, policy-makers must consider both the current needs of refugees and how the diaspora can help to support economic recovery in Ukraine.

Productivity & growth

How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy?

Net migration in the UK reached historic highs following the introduction of the post-Brexit immigration system. While this is likely to have only minor effects on the labour market and public finances, evidence on housing is more mixed. The impact of further policy reforms targeting demand for migrant workers is also uncertain.

All Answers