Questions and answers about
the economy.

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On Thursday 7 May, voters across England, Scotland and Wales will head to the polls. This week at the Economics Observatory, we have been examining the parties’ prospects – and what the economic backdrop tells us about how and why the political map is shifting.

Nations, regions & cities

Senedd election 2026: what are the big economic issues?

The 2026 election for the Welsh parliament is likely to produce a seismic result, one that would end over a century of Labour dominance in Wales. Two blocs of parties offer different visions for a time of high economic uncertainty and worrying trends in employment, earnings and living standards.

Nations, regions & cities

UK local elections 2026: what are the prospects in Manchester?

Elections in the ten boroughs of Greater Manchester provide voters with an opportunity to pass judgement on Labour nationally. But the results may also reflect views on what’s been happening across the city-region, where productivity growth has been strong, and public health and transport improved.

DATA HUB

War in Iran sees fuel prices continue to surge

US petrol prices have surged since the US-Israel strikes on Iran began Feb 28. Regular gasoline is up 35% in 4 weeks ($2.94→$3.96/gal). Diesel has risen even faster: +41%, now $5.38 and within $0.44 of its all-time record.


Compare with last June's 12-day US-Israel-Iran conflict. Gasoline barely moved (+$0.10, quickly reversed). Diesel rose ~$0.30 then retreated. With strikes on gas fields continuing, expect prices at the pump to rise further still.

Aid & international development

How is the conflict in the Middle East affecting developing economies?

Developing countries are often vulnerable to fuel price shocks caused by global geopolitical tensions. As well as raising the costs of key items such as petrol and food, conflicts like the Iran war can force affected governments into expensive subsidies, further damaging already weak economies.

Nations, regions & cities

Why don’t we have nicer buildings?

The benefits of distinctive urban architecture extend far beyond the buildings themselves, but the costs are borne by the developers. This can lead to underinvestment in high-quality design – and it raises the question of whether policy should encourage better architecture.

Prices & interest rates

How might the Middle East conflict shape Europe’s inflation outlook?

The immediate economic fallout from war in the Middle East lies in the spikes in oil and gas prices, and in major disruptions to aviation and shipping. The countries most vulnerable to future inflation from the shocks are those that combine energy import dependency with weak external balances.

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