Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

Scorecasting the Football League: what prospects for the 2026/27 season?

There are clear favourites for automatic promotion in all three divisions. In the Championship, West Ham are likely to dominate, with Wolves and Burnley next. Leicester will be almost as strong in League One; Stockport and Luton follow. In League Two, the top picks are Barnet, Swindon and Rotherham.

Nations, regions & cities

Can friendships help to explain inequality of opportunity across the UK?

Where you grow up shapes who you know – and who you know shapes where you end up, not least in terms of your earnings later in life. Research is revealing that the way in which social connections are distributed across places is closely linked to economic opportunities.

Data stories

National League football: can we scorecast the 2026/27 season?

English domestic football returns this weekend with the opening games of the highest levels of non-league football. The likeliest division champions are Forest Green Rovers in the National League, Macclesfield in the National League North and Dagenham and Redbridge in the National League South.

DATA HUB

Peru’s GDP growth and copper price

Copper prices have climbed to record highs, but Peru's economy is growing at only around half the pace seen during the last commodities boom.

Can one of the world's largest copper producers turn surging global demand into sustained economic growth?

Business, big & small

The great British pub: do we really need to worry?

The new prime minister has promised a cut in business rates for the country’s public houses as well as other social venues. Whether this helps pubs’ prospects of survival depends on how much of the pressures on these local institutions are really about costs, rather than changing consumer tastes.

MAGAZINE

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As the region swings to the political right, sustained development will depend not only on restoring macroeconomic stability and improving national security, but also on strengthening institutions, raising productivity, fostering innovation and creating more diversified and resilient economies.

Public spending, taxes & debt

What can Colombia expect after the 2026 presidential election?

Colombia’s new president has inherited a fragile economy – and he has already promised sweeping changes to promote economic stability. The success of his approach will hinge on how well the proposed shock therapy can be balanced against a tough social backdrop and cautious international markets.

Aid & international development

The development challenge in El Salvador: is lower crime enough?

El Salvador’s government overhauled the country’s security policy and ended gang violence, lifting what was thought to be the main constraint on the economy. There have been measurable improvements in such areas as emigration, exports and investment – but to date, growth has improved only modestly.

Trade & supply chains

Can Mexico turn North American integration into lasting economic growth?

Mexico is central to the productivity and prosperity of North America – particularly through its role as the United States’ largest trading partner. Whether it can turn this relationship into lasting domestic growth will depend on key policy choices that favour pragmatism over ideology.

Productivity & growth

Argentina’s second test: can the Milei government deliver lasting growth?

President Milei’s stabilisation is delivering results: inflation is down, growth has returned and exports are playing a larger role in the recovery. But Argentina’s second test is harder: turning macroeconomic stability into investment, jobs and higher real wages before the political clock runs out.

Nations, regions & cities

How might Chilean policy-makers deliver effective reforms?

Chile has lurched between very different political ideologies in recent years. The latest swing – towards a more market-oriented, right-leaning administration – should be interpreted as a call for a more effective state, not necessarily a smaller one.

Nations, regions & cities

Can Peru capitalise on the global copper boom?

A new commodities boom – triggered by the global transitions to clean energy and digital technology – is driving up demand for copper. Peru is one of the world’s leading producers of the metal, but political instability, weak institutions and illegal mining could curtail any potential gains.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 epilogue: where next for scorecasting football results?

Elo ratings of national teams are a starting point for thinking about economic questions that pop up around big tournaments, including the relationship between the features of a country and its footballing success. Similarly, clubs can be linked to the socio-economic indicators of their local areas.

Productivity & growth

India’s economic rise: a long and winding road

The rapid development of India in the 20th century is a remarkable story, albeit one with uneven outcomes. Today, the country faces new pressures: from converting growth into health, education and human capability – through reducing dollar dependency – to navigating the transition to green energy.

Energy & climate change

Where next for India’s transition to green energy?

India has made substantial progress in shifting towards more renewable energy sources, with both wind and solar capacity having grown rapidly in recent years. But many challenges remain, with energy independence now a central part of the government’s economic ambitions.

All Answers