Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

Have economic inequalities in the UK narrowed over the past 100 years?

Both income and wealth inequality, as measured by the shares held by the top 1%, declined consistently in the UK from 1914. But there was an abrupt halt in both declines in the early 1980s. Since then, income inequality has risen while wealth inequality has appeared steady for over four decades.

Lessons from history

How has children’s health in the UK changed over the past 100 years?

Children today have better nutrition and access to clean water, sanitation and medical care than their counterparts a century ago. These improvements have led to falling rates of infectious diseases, and infant and child mortality – but new health concerns are emerging, including childhood obesity.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

Has technology caused unemployment?

There are several historical precedents for large-scale and sustained unemployment following technological change. Understanding these past experiences will help researchers and policy-makers to have a clear view of the potential effects of artificial intelligence on the labour market.

DATA HUB

Britain starts Googling its debt problem

UK searches for "government debt" sat relatively flat for two decades, then spiked to a record high in 2026. Jagjit Chadha asks whether the UK could need a 1976-style IMF bailout and where the real fix lies. Read more by clicking on the chart.

Data stories

Live football on TV: should the Saturday 3pm blackout be lifted?

The absence of live TV matches on Saturday afternoons may inconvenience fans of England’s 20 best sides. But the many smaller clubs in the league pyramid below the top compete with the big teams for fans. Removing the blackout could significantly harm the nation’s unique footballing heritage.

MAGAZINE

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Football shirts have become much more expensive over the past decade. Supporters’ unwavering loyalty means that clubs possess unusual pricing power, but there are still alternatives. Economics helps to explain both why shirts cost so much and what might be the limits to fans’ willingness to pay.

Data stories

Scorecasting European club football: who will win the biggest prize?

Attention shifts to cross-border competition in football this week, as the UEFA Champions League kicks off. Britain has long bucked the sport’s broader economic trends – and England is particularly dominant. The Premier League’s top clubs all look set to progress deep in this season’s competition.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

Vision 2047 needs India’s women to be in work – so why aren’t they?

India ranks low globally for women’s labour force participation – a considerable constraint on its development ambitions. Tackling the shortfall requires better state-provided childcare and jobs that women can keep through marriage and motherhood to lower the churn that pushes them out of paid work.

Productivity & growth

The British disease: what explains the relative decline of the UK economy?

Britain established global leadership in manufacturing, innovation and exports in the Industrial Revolution. Relative economic decline from around 1870 was an outcome of comparator countries catching up and overtaking. But there have also been policy failures and persistent institutional weaknesses.

Public spending, taxes & debt

Is public procurement the missing lever for UK industrial strategy?

The UK government spends around £400 billion a year buying goods and services, a far bigger slice of public spending than goes to research and development. To support the new industrial strategy, procurement needs to be designed and directed in a way that drives innovation, diffusion and growth.

Data stories

Scorecasting the new domestic football season: where have we got to?

As August draws to a close, there’s a full round of matches across the top six tiers of English football. At the Economics Observatory, we’ll be scorecasting each game, looking at how results so far compare with our expectations for the season, and exploring clubs’ links to their local economies.

Energy & climate change

Should the UK government allow more North Sea drilling for oil and gas?

In considering a return to North Sea exploration, five arguments relate to climate and clean energy: one’s bad; two provide a genuine case for limited additional production; and two strengthen the case against it. On balance, they suggest that an open-ended programme of new drilling would be unwise.

Data stories

Scorecasting the Premier League: what prospects for the 2026/27 season?

The competition’s unbalanced nature means that the last three champions are by far the most likely clubs to lift the trophy this season. Scorecasting gives Manchester City a 60% chance of winning the title – with Arsenal next on 22% and Liverpool at 15%. No other team’s probability is above 1%.

Attitudes, media & governance

What is state capacity and why does it matter?

How effectively the machinery of governance enforces laws, regulates economic activity and provides public services is a key issue around the world. The Covid-19 pandemic and other policy challenges highlight wide variations in state capacity among countries – and the growing strain on public trust.

Transport & infrastructure

Urban heat regulating: what’s the value of nature-based cooling in cities?

With extreme heat becoming more common in the UK, nature-based urban cooling from green spaces and bodies of water can create economic value by protecting productivity and lowering expenditure on air conditioning. This is a measurable example of how natural capital supports economic activity.

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