Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

World Cup 2026: 30 years on, is football finally coming home?

Scorecasting economics suggests that Argentina have a far higher probability of winning the 2026 World Cup than the bookies’ co-favourites, France and Spain. England’s trophy-winning likelihood is 8%; while Scotland have a 71% chance of finally going beyond the group stage of a big tournament.

Transport & infrastructure

Are more trains the answer to economic struggles in the North of England?

More often than not, the political answer to the North of England’s economic challenges is more trains. Yet while fresh investment in rail infrastructure may boost prosperity in certain places, it isn’t the catch-all solution that some politicians present it to be.

Energy & climate change

How do climate disasters affect pro-environmental behaviour?

Seeing others affected by extreme weather events like flooding, storms and heatwaves is not enough to change people’s behaviour. For the average person, a global problem leads to action only when it gets personal: we respond much more when our own postcode is affected by climate disasters.

DATA HUB

UK leadership uncertainty hits gilt yields

As UK leadership turmoil deepens, gilts are again doing the disciplining: the 10Y yield jumped from 5.0% to over 5.18% today and has repeatedly broken above 5% this month. 10 year gilts haven't been at these levels since 2008.

That leaves UK borrowing costs clearly detached from G7 peers, with political risk now amplifying inflation and global risk pressures.

Crime, policing & justice

Can strangulation laws reduce intimate partner violence and homicides?

Non-fatal strangulation is a dangerous and under-recognised form of domestic abuse, especially since it may leave little visible injury. Legislation that makes it a standalone offence will not only reduce violence inflicted on intimate partners, but also help to prevent escalation into homicide.

MAGAZINE

Read the latest edition of our magazine here

The economic policies proposed by the Greens envisage a substantially larger state, higher public investment, higher taxes and higher government borrowing. The big question is whether a programme of this fiscal scale can be funded in a way that is credible to financial markets and avoids inflation.

News

No overall control

On Thursday 7 May, voters across England, Scotland and Wales will head to the polls. This week at the Economics Observatory, we have been examining the parties’ prospects – and what the economic backdrop tells us about how and why the political map is shifting.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

Which policies can both boost growth and help people on low incomes?

Stimulating growth is one of the government’s top priorities. Traditionally, reducing labour market insecurities has been pursued as a separate goal. But five policy areas could boost both productivity and equality: small and medium-sized firms, pay transparency, recruitment, localism and training.

Public spending, taxes & debt

Why do some people in the UK face marginal tax rates of over 60%?

Various adjustments to Britain’s tax and benefit system have created sharp spikes in marginal tax rates. Some families take home less than 40p of each extra pound they earn, blunting incentives to work or take promotions.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

Why is economic inactivity so persistent in Northern Ireland?

Economic inactivity has historically been higher in Northern Ireland than in the rest of the UK. Policies to address inactivity have long been in place, but there is a lack of understanding of the specific barriers facing people that lead them to be neither in employment nor actively seeking work.

Public spending, taxes & debt

What future for residential property taxation in Britain?

Council tax is unpopular, unfair and overdue for reform. An alternative would be to fund statutory services through central government, introduce a modest local service charge, and absorb stamp duty and capital gains tax on housing into a single recurrent residential land and property ownership fee.

Nations, regions & cities

UK local elections 2026: what are the prospects in Manchester?

Elections in the ten boroughs of Greater Manchester provide voters with an opportunity to pass judgement on Labour nationally. But the results may also reflect views on what’s been happening across the city-region, where productivity growth has been strong, and public health and transport improved.

Public spending, taxes & debt

Why did some earlier wealth taxes fail and could this time be different?

Wealth taxes are being floated as a post-pandemic option to raise revenue and address inequality. A common objection is that they seem to have failed in countries that tried them. Is that so and does that mean that wealth taxes should be abandoned as a policy tool?

Nations, regions & cities

Senedd election 2026: what are the big economic issues?

The 2026 election for the Welsh parliament is likely to produce a seismic result, one that would end over a century of Labour dominance in Wales. Two blocs of parties offer different visions for a time of high economic uncertainty and worrying trends in employment, earnings and living standards.

Banks & financial markets

Bond markets and the UK’s public finances: what’s been going on?

Recent increases in the UK government’s cost of borrowing have sparked debates about the public finances and the direction of economic policy. Some analysts have made misleading comparisons to the adverse bond market reactions to the previous government’s mini-budget of 2022.

All Answers