Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

What role could migration play in the reconstruction of Ukraine?

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has triggered the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II, with nearly six million Ukrainians displaced worldwide. This creates a critical challenge looking ahead to post-war reconstruction. With over 200,000 Ukrainians currently here in the UK, policy-makers must consider both the current needs of refugees and how the diaspora can help to support economic recovery in Ukraine.

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Productivity & growth

How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy?

Net migration in the UK reached historic highs following the introduction of the post-Brexit immigration system. While this is likely to have only minor effects on the labour market and public finances, evidence on housing is more mixed. The impact of further policy reforms targeting demand for migrant workers is also uncertain.

DATA HUB

US debt climbs faster than that of peers

The US debt-to-GDP ratio was 125% in 2025 and is forecast to reach 143% by 2030.

Debt is rising faster than in other advanced economies, underscoring growing fiscal pressures.

Click here to read Monica George Michail on Bond markets and the UK’s public finances: what’s been going on?

Attitudes, media & governance

Beyond the ‘Global Irish’: what are the migration challenges facing Ireland?

Ireland has turned its experience of large-scale emigration into an asset by actively engaging its diaspora and maintaining strong connections around the world. But with immigration into Ireland at record levels, policy-makers face new challenges.

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People who are refugees typically have worse employment prospects than the rest of the population, including other migrant groups. Targeted policies can help: speeding up application decisions, supporting access to work, improving job matching and providing language and mental health support.

Productivity & growth

What policies could kick-start economic growth in the UK?

For two decades, the UK economy has seen weak growth, driven by low business investment, inadequate market dynamism and persistent policy instability. These failures shape the daily reality of households whose living standards have stagnated. New policies are needed that can stimulate growth and move the country back on a path to prosperity.

Health, physical & mental

What are the lingering effects of the pandemic on young people’s wellbeing?

The social restrictions and disrupted educational experiences resulting from Covid-19 have had a negative impact on many young people’s mental health. The damage to wellbeing has been more persistent in certain groups, particularly among girls and those who identify as non-binary.

Nations, regions & cities

From crisis to stability: what next for Bolivia’s economy?

Bolivia is at a decisive moment in its modern economic and political history, after nearly two decades of dominance by the Movement Toward Socialism party. Whoever ends up taking charge will need to draw up an economic stabilisation programme – though implementing it will be challenging.

Banks & financial markets

How does regulation affect growth in the UK financial services sector?

The UK’s financial services sector is facing falling investment, posing a risk to this vital part of the country’s economy. In response, regulators must balance consumer protection with growth, by ensuring proportionate oversight, clear rules and targeted support.

Trade & supply chains

How has Brexit affected UK financial services?

Brexit has altered the way that UK financial firms are operating, particularly in their interactions with European partners. Since the referendum, British firms are exporting less but are investing more abroad, suggesting many have re-wired their strategies.

Banks & financial markets

Measuring risk: how can researchers map the UK financial sector in real time?

Large shocks like the 2007/08 global financial crisis have reshaped the UK financial sector. Using network theory, researchers can monitor change in real time, exploring how different risks can be transmitted throughout the UK financial system.

Banks & financial markets

Why is it so difficult to measure productivity in the financial services sector?

The financial services industry is one of the UK’s economic powerhouses, generating significant value and employing highly skilled workers. But measuring productivity within the sector is challenging, making it hard to design effective policies that maximise the potential of this critical part of the economy.

Prices & interest rates

Could tensions between Iran and Israel trigger a new wave of inflation?

The immediate inflationary impact of widening conflict in the Middle East is likely to be limited. But potential trade and supply chain disruptions, weakening business sentiment and elevated uncertainty could have major consequences for the global economy. Governments face tough budgetary choices.

Nations, regions & cities

How productive is the West of England?

The West of England has a diverse economy, including rural areas, services-based jobs and advanced manufacturing hubs. Investment in infrastructure, skills and research and development (R&D) could help to boost the region’s productivity.

Public spending, taxes & debt

What future for residential property taxation in Britain?

Council tax is unpopular, unfair and overdue for reform. An alternative would be to fund statutory services through central government, introduce a modest local service charge, and absorb stamp duty and capital gains tax on housing into a single recurrent residential land and property ownership fee.

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