Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

Scorecasting European club football: who will win the biggest prize?

Attention shifts to cross-border competition in football this week, as the UEFA Champions League kicks off. Britain has long bucked the sport’s broader economic trends – and England is particularly dominant. The Premier League’s top clubs all look set to progress deep in this season’s competition.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

Vision 2047 needs India’s women to be in work – so why aren’t they?

India ranks low globally for women’s labour force participation – a considerable constraint on its development ambitions. Tackling the shortfall requires better state-provided childcare and jobs that women can keep through marriage and motherhood to lower the churn that pushes them out of paid work.

Productivity & growth

The British disease: what explains the relative decline of the UK economy?

Britain established global leadership in manufacturing, innovation and exports in the Industrial Revolution. Relative economic decline from around 1870 was an outcome of comparator countries catching up and overtaking. But there have also been policy failures and persistent institutional weaknesses.

DATA HUB

Football scorecasting: seven leagues this weekend

A full round across all seven divisions on Saturday: 80 matches from the Premier League down to National League North and South.

In 44 of them, we don't make anyone better than a 50% chance of winning.

Public spending, taxes & debt

Is public procurement the missing lever for UK industrial strategy?

The UK government spends around £400 billion a year buying goods and services, a far bigger slice of public spending than goes to research and development. To support the new industrial strategy, procurement needs to be designed and directed in a way that drives innovation, diffusion and growth.

MAGAZINE

Read the latest edition of our magazine here

As August draws to a close, there’s a full round of matches across the top six tiers of English football. At the Economics Observatory, we’ll be scorecasting each game, looking at how results so far compare with our expectations for the season, and exploring clubs’ links to their local economies.

Energy & climate change

Should the UK government allow more North Sea drilling for oil and gas?

In considering a return to North Sea exploration, five arguments relate to climate and clean energy: one’s bad; two provide a genuine case for limited additional production; and two strengthen the case against it. On balance, they suggest that an open-ended programme of new drilling would be unwise.

Data stories

Scorecasting the Premier League: what prospects for the 2026/27 season?

The competition’s unbalanced nature means that the last three champions are by far the most likely clubs to lift the trophy this season. Scorecasting gives Manchester City a 60% chance of winning the title – with Arsenal next on 22% and Liverpool at 15%. No other team’s probability is above 1%.

Attitudes, media & governance

What is state capacity and why does it matter?

How effectively the machinery of governance enforces laws, regulates economic activity and provides public services is a key issue around the world. The Covid-19 pandemic and other policy challenges highlight wide variations in state capacity among countries – and the growing strain on public trust.

Transport & infrastructure

Urban heat regulating: what’s the value of nature-based cooling in cities?

With extreme heat becoming more common in the UK, nature-based urban cooling from green spaces and bodies of water can create economic value by protecting productivity and lowering expenditure on air conditioning. This is a measurable example of how natural capital supports economic activity.

Nations, regions & cities

Will the state of the high street have political consequences for the UK?

New PM Andy Burnham has made the renaissance of high streets one of his top priorities for good reason. As well as being places for shopping, they are often the heart of a community, both physically and socially. Whenever pubs, cafes, bookshops or supermarkets close, there can be political fallout.

Transport & infrastructure

Local government reform: what role for universal basic infrastructure?

England is undergoing a major re-organisation of local government. Universal basic infrastructure provides the framework needed to ensure that this is not just an administrative reshuffle, but a rare moment to re-imagine the relationship between the state, citizens and the places they call home.

Data stories

Scorecasting the Football League: what prospects for the 2026/27 season?

There are clear favourites for automatic promotion in all three divisions. In the Championship, West Ham are likely to dominate, with Wolves and Burnley next. Leicester will be almost as strong in League One; Stockport and Luton follow. In League Two, the top picks are Barnet, Swindon and Rotherham.

Schools, universities & training

How could the UK’s education system be reformed to equalise opportunities?

Reforms to the admissions procedures for UK schools and universities would make a big difference to many young people’s life chances.

Nations, regions & cities

Can friendships help to explain inequality of opportunity across the UK?

Where you grow up shapes who you know – and who you know shapes where you end up, not least in terms of your earnings later in life. Research is revealing that the way in which social connections are distributed across places is closely linked to economic opportunities.

All Answers