Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

What is state capacity and why does it matter?

How effectively the machinery of governance enforces laws, regulates economic activity and provides public services is a key issue around the world. The Covid-19 pandemic and other policy challenges highlight wide variations in state capacity among countries – and the growing strain on public trust.

Data stories

Scorecasting the Premier League: what prospects for the 2026/27 season?

The competition’s unbalanced nature means that the last three champions are by far the most likely clubs to lift the trophy this season. Scorecasting gives Manchester City a 60% chance of winning the title – with Arsenal next on 22% and Liverpool at 15%. No other team’s probability is above 1%.

Transport & infrastructure

Urban heat regulating: what’s the value of nature-based cooling in cities?

With extreme heat becoming more common in the UK, nature-based urban cooling from green spaces and bodies of water can create economic value by protecting productivity and lowering expenditure on air conditioning. This is a measurable example of how natural capital supports economic activity.

DATA HUB

Peru’s GDP growth and copper price

Copper prices have climbed to record highs, but Peru's economy is growing at only around half the pace seen during the last commodities boom.

Can one of the world's largest copper producers turn surging global demand into sustained economic growth?

Nations, regions & cities

Will the state of the high street have political consequences for the UK?

New PM Andy Burnham has made the renaissance of high streets one of his top priorities for good reason. As well as being places for shopping, they are often the heart of a community, both physically and socially. Whenever pubs, cafes, bookshops or supermarkets close, there can be political fallout.

MAGAZINE

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England is undergoing a major re-organisation of local government. Universal basic infrastructure provides the framework needed to ensure that this is not just an administrative reshuffle, but a rare moment to re-imagine the relationship between the state, citizens and the places they call home.

Data stories

Scorecasting the Football League: what prospects for the 2026/27 season?

There are clear favourites for automatic promotion in all three divisions. In the Championship, West Ham are likely to dominate, with Wolves and Burnley next. Leicester will be almost as strong in League One; Stockport and Luton follow. In League Two, the top picks are Barnet, Swindon and Rotherham.

Schools, universities & training

How could the UK’s education system be reformed to equalise opportunities?

Reforms to the admissions procedures for UK schools and universities would make a big difference to many young people’s life chances.

Nations, regions & cities

Can friendships help to explain inequality of opportunity across the UK?

Where you grow up shapes who you know – and who you know shapes where you end up, not least in terms of your earnings later in life. Research is revealing that the way in which social connections are distributed across places is closely linked to economic opportunities.

Data stories

National League football: can we scorecast the 2026/27 season?

English domestic football returns this weekend with the opening games of the highest levels of non-league football. The likeliest division champions are Forest Green Rovers in the National League, Macclesfield in the National League North and Dagenham and Redbridge in the National League South.

Business, big & small

The great British pub: do we really need to worry?

The new prime minister has promised a cut in business rates for the country’s public houses as well as other social venues. Whether this helps pubs’ prospects of survival depends on how much of the pressures on these local institutions are really about costs, rather than changing consumer tastes.

Nations, regions & cities

Latin America in political and economic transition

As the region swings to the political right, sustained development will depend not only on restoring macroeconomic stability and improving national security, but also on strengthening institutions, raising productivity, fostering innovation and creating more diversified and resilient economies.

Public spending, taxes & debt

What can Colombia expect after the 2026 presidential election?

Colombia’s new president has inherited a fragile economy – and he has already promised sweeping changes to promote economic stability. The success of his approach will hinge on how well the proposed shock therapy can be balanced against a tough social backdrop and cautious international markets.

Aid & international development

The development challenge in El Salvador: is lower crime enough?

El Salvador’s government overhauled the country’s security policy and ended gang violence, lifting what was thought to be the main constraint on the economy. There have been measurable improvements in such areas as emigration, exports and investment – but to date, growth has improved only modestly.

Trade & supply chains

Can Mexico turn North American integration into lasting economic growth?

Mexico is central to the productivity and prosperity of North America – particularly through its role as the United States’ largest trading partner. Whether it can turn this relationship into lasting domestic growth will depend on key policy choices that favour pragmatism over ideology.

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