Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

World Cup 2026 after the opening group games: is football coming home?

With the first round of group matches complete, scorecasting analysis indicates shifts among the teams most likely to win the World Cup. Argentina have strengthened their position: they’re now 27% to lift the trophy. England have jumped to fourth favourites at 10%, with France and Spain both on 11%.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 previews for Groups K and L: what does scorecasting suggest?

World Cup Groups K and L, the last to start, are strongly linked: it’s likely that three teams will qualify from each and all would then face a team from the other group. England’s best chances of progress in the knockout stages would be to come third – but they should definitely avoid second place.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 previews for Groups I and J: what does scorecasting suggest?

The World Cup now has its first epic stories – claims of the biggest ever shock with Cape Verde holding Spain to a goalless draw; and Uruguay failing to beat Saudi Arabia. The next two groups bring highly favoured France into action, as well as Argentina, the team most likely to win the tournament.

DATA HUB

FIFA World Cup 2026: height and age profiles

Across the teams competing at this summer's World Cup, some teams skew taller and older than the rest.

By confederation, nations from UEFA are the tallest, averaging nearly 2cm above than the next tallest confederation (OFC - Oceania) and 4cm above than the shortest (CONMEBOL - South America).

By age, there is some divergence. Players from CONMEBOL are the oldest, averaging just shy of 29 years, while CAF (27.5 yrs) and EUFA (27.7 yrs) are the youngest.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 previews for Groups G and H: what does scorecasting suggest?

The first round of World Cup Groups G and H takes place today and tomorrow, bringing highly favoured Spain into the action. Scorecasting economics suggests that like the Germans, the Spanish team should win their opening match comfortably. Three points also look likely for Belgium, Iran and Uruguay.

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While World Cup Groups E and F are likely to be dominated by Germany, Japan and the Netherlands, scorecasting economics suggests that in the groups’ first round of matches today and tomorrow, there’s a strong chance of further draws. But a thumping victory for Germany over tiny Curaçao is probable.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 previews for Groups C and D: what does scorecasting suggest?

The World Cup kicked off last night, and overnight, the United States will begin their campaign in what is likely to be a tight Group D, with a good chance of draws. Brazil and Morocco will dominate Group C, so Scotland’s match against Haiti is key to their hopes of progressing in the tournament.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 previews for Groups A and B: what does scorecasting suggest?

The World Cup kicks off this evening, and over today and tomorrow, the teams in Groups A and B will start their campaigns. Scorecasting economics suggests that the likeliest results are wins for Mexico, the Czech Republic, Canada and Switzerland – the last game being the tournament’s first goalfest.

Data stories

World Cup 2026: 30 years on, is football finally coming home?

Scorecasting economics suggests that Argentina have a far higher probability of winning the 2026 World Cup than the bookies’ co-favourites, France and Spain. England’s trophy-winning likelihood is 8%; while Scotland have a 71% chance of finally going beyond the group stage of a big tournament.

Transport & infrastructure

Are more trains the answer to economic struggles in the North of England?

More often than not, the political answer to the North of England’s economic challenges is more trains. Yet while fresh investment in rail infrastructure may boost prosperity in certain places, it isn’t the catch-all solution that some politicians present it to be.

Energy & climate change

How do climate disasters affect pro-environmental behaviour?

Seeing others affected by extreme weather events like flooding, storms and heatwaves is not enough to change people’s behaviour. For the average person, a global problem leads to action only when it gets personal: we respond much more when our own postcode is affected by climate disasters.

Crime, policing & justice

Can strangulation laws reduce intimate partner violence and homicides?

Non-fatal strangulation is a dangerous and under-recognised form of domestic abuse, especially since it may leave little visible injury. Legislation that makes it a standalone offence will not only reduce violence inflicted on intimate partners, but also help to prevent escalation into homicide.

Public spending, taxes & debt

What are the Green Party’s economic plans?

The economic policies proposed by the Greens envisage a substantially larger state, higher public investment, higher taxes and higher government borrowing. The big question is whether a programme of this fiscal scale can be funded in a way that is credible to financial markets and avoids inflation.

News

No overall control

On Thursday 7 May, voters across England, Scotland and Wales will head to the polls. This week at the Economics Observatory, we have been examining the parties’ prospects – and what the economic backdrop tells us about how and why the political map is shifting.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

Which policies can both boost growth and help people on low incomes?

Stimulating growth is one of the government’s top priorities. Traditionally, reducing labour market insecurities has been pursued as a separate goal. But five policy areas could boost both productivity and equality: small and medium-sized firms, pay transparency, recruitment, localism and training.

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