Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

The World Cup 2026 round of 16: is football coming home?

Scorecasting analysis suggests that the likeliest match winners in the round of 16 are Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Colombia, England, France, Morocco and Spain. The altitude in Mexico City will be something of a leveller, but it seems unlikely to leave England’s game against Mexico as a toss-up.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

Beyond wages: what makes a good job?

People’s wellbeing at work is influenced by various features of their jobs, including autonomy, intensity and prospects. Researchers use surveys to track these dimensions of working life and measure their contribution to social progress. Many of them cannot be improved through economic growth alone.

Data stories

The World Cup 2026 knockout stages begin: is football coming home?

Europe and South America are overwhelmingly likely to provide the winner of the tournament – but there is a 3% chance of an African country lifting the trophy. Argentina remain by some distance the most probable champions, at 33%, followed by France and Spain, both at 12%, and England, at 9%.

DATA HUB

High-altitude teams outperform Elo expectations

Does altitude really give home teams an edge? After accounting for team strength using Elo ratings, home teams at higher altitudes tend to outperform expectations – but even at the highest elevations, the effect remains within the margin of error.

That could help Mexico against England, but probably not enough to make the match a toss-up.

Attitudes, media & governance

The fear of strangers: why do some people reject immigration?

Exaggerated anxiety followed by gradual accommodation is one of the most consistent features of Western immigration history – with first Catholics, then Jews and now Muslims feared. In thinking about issues of cultural difference and social cohesion, we need a path between alarmism and complacency.

MAGAZINE

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While official data points to a ‘productivity miracle’ in several large northern cities since 2019, a closer look suggests otherwise. This serves as a reminder to sense-check any data before using it, regardless of the source.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 final group matches update: is football coming home?

With the last round of group games beginning, the likelihood of pre-tournament favourites Argentina lifting the trophy has risen to 31%, with Spain now at 13%, France 11% and England 9%. England have a 50% chance of reaching the quarterfinals if they top their group, but 30% if they come second.

Prices & interest rates

The good, the bad and the ugly: what scenarios for UK inflation?

What happens in the Persian Gulf will be crucial for the path of inflation in the UK over the next 12 months. The most desirable outcome will happen if the peace deal holds, the Strait of Hormuz is re-opened and remains open, and the damage to energy infrastructure in the region is limited.

Schools, universities & training

France’s socio-economic attainment gap in schools: how might it be closed?

France’s educational system spends heavily but delivers unequal outcomes for pupils, mainly driven by differences in their social background. A targeted, low-cost policy framework, combining tutors and adaptive technology, could help to change that without new legislation or major fiscal commitment.

Business, big & small

The UK’s new industrial strategy: what does it mean for Manchester?

To succeed, the industrial strategy needs to build strong local ecosystems in places where the eight priority sectors can thrive. The example of Greater Manchester shows why investment must be joined-up and focused on making the city-region a more productive place to do business across the board.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 after the opening group games: is football coming home?

With the first round of group matches complete, scorecasting analysis indicates shifts among the teams most likely to win the World Cup. Argentina have strengthened their position: they’re now 27% to lift the trophy. England have jumped to fourth favourites at 10%, with France and Spain both on 11%.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 previews for Groups K and L: what does scorecasting suggest?

World Cup Groups K and L, the last to start, are strongly linked: it’s likely that three teams will qualify from each and all would then face a team from the other group. England’s best chances of progress in the knockout stages would be to come third – but they should definitely avoid second place.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 previews for Groups I and J: what does scorecasting suggest?

The World Cup now has its first epic stories – claims of the biggest ever shock with Cape Verde holding Spain to a goalless draw; and Uruguay failing to beat Saudi Arabia. The next two groups bring highly favoured France into action, as well as Argentina, the team most likely to win the tournament.

Public spending, taxes & debt

Why do some people in the UK face marginal tax rates of over 60%?

Various adjustments to Britain’s tax and benefit system have created sharp spikes in marginal tax rates. Some families take home less than 40p of each extra pound they earn, blunting incentives to work or take promotions.

Data stories

World Cup 2026 previews for Groups G and H: what does scorecasting suggest?

The first round of World Cup Groups G and H takes place today and tomorrow, bringing highly favoured Spain into the action. Scorecasting economics suggests that like the Germans, the Spanish team should win their opening match comfortably. Three points also look likely for Belgium, Iran and Uruguay.

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