Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

Can researchers predict conflicts and their consequences?

Wars have many economic, political and social consequences. From changes to technology, to the re-drawing of borders, to mass losses of life, conflicts shape human history. They are also extremely challenging to predict – both in terms of their causes and effects.

Playfair prize

Student data journalism

Nations, regions & cities

Why did Venezuela’s economy collapse?

The Venezuelan economy has suffered from decades of disastrous economic policies – and more recently, from economic sanctions. The country has seen the largest ever decline in living standards outside war, revolution or the collapse of the state.

DATA HUB

Venezuela’s economy: a regional outlier

What has happened to Venezuela’s economy since 1960?

For decades, Venezuela sat in the middle of the South American pack. Since 2014, its GDP per capita has fallen dramatically, while neighbours, especially Guyana and Uruguay, have continued to grow.

Why?

Click here to read Frank Muci’s 2024 analysis on Venezuela's economic collapse.

Data stories

What can Christmas dinner tell us about inflation?

Digital microdata reveal nuance in the price of the holiday season’s most important meal, while historical records highlight how the cost of key ingredients has changed over decades.

MAGAZINE

Read the latest edition of our magazine here

The tripling of tuition fees in 2012 put universities in a strong financial position. But since then, fees – and the maintenance loans that support students – haven’t kept up with inflation. Now, students face real hardship and some universities seem to be in deep financial difficulties.

Lessons from history

Can UK trade unions recover their post-war power?

Recent strikes and the pay offers that followed have led to a renewed focus on what trade unions can achieve. There has been much invocation of their post-war influence. But recovering that power would require significant changes in UK politics, the law and how unions themselves work.

Health, physical & mental

Why should we care about obesity?

Obesity is increasing in the UK and around the world, including among children from disadvantaged backgrounds. As well as immediate health effects, obesity can have an impact on young people’s learning and future prospects.

Inequality & poverty

Does Adam Smith's theory really imply today's inequality?

What was the ideal economic system for Adam Smith? His writings disapprove of high profits and advocate regulation, a minimum wage and well-designed taxes.

Lessons from history

Where is the wealth of nations in the 21st century?

In the 21st century, as the globe faces the threat of climate change, an understanding of the wealth of a nation needs to extend beyond measures of income to include natural capital and biodiversity.

Public spending, taxes & debt

The UK’s public finances: is it time to reform the fiscal rules?

Boosting economic growth while maintaining sustainable levels of public spending is a huge policy challenge for the UK. The government’s self-imposed fiscal rules may themselves act as a constraint. Reforming the rules could help to revive the country’s stagnant economy.

Energy & climate change

Missing capitals: how should we think about the modern wealth of nations?

Conceptions of wealth tend to focus on financial assets. But prosperity also depends on natural capital, human capital, social capital and intangible capital.

Inequality & poverty

What has happened to child poverty in the UK over the last 30 years?

Growing up in poverty has highly detrimental impacts on children’s development and their wellbeing in later life. In the UK, where rates of child poverty have been rising sharply in recent years, particularly for those in large families, targeted policy interventions could make a big difference.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

What do we know about the effects of military conscription?

Mounting national security threats have led a number of European countries to consider reinstating mandatory military service. Proponents argue that it would bolster national defence and boost citizenship among young people. But evidence on either effect is scarce or points to the opposite outcome.

Energy & climate change

Will eating less meat and dairy reduce greenhouse gas emissions?

Eating less meat and dairy will almost certainly reduce emissions. What is less certain is where emissions will fall.

Trade & supply chains

Global defence spending: What next for European military procurement?

With its fragmented production process, European defence procurement is inefficient and uncompetitive in comparison to the United States. A new approach, prioritising cross-country collaborations, could improve things, but would not be without its own challenges.

All Answers