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Current Research

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Economists from around the world are using real time data collection to better understand the impact the Covid-19 crisis is having on families, workers, firms and society, and how policies can help the recovery out of the crisis. Find out more about how these research teams are carrying out their projects, and what their findings are below.

Macroeconomic effects and spillovers among countries of the Covid-19 pandemic

Since December 2019, the Covid-19 pandemic spread worldwide from China, passing to Europe in February 2020, and lastly in the US, in March 2020. According to the Air Transport Association, in February 2020 the global growth rate of air passengers dem...
Primary Topic: Recession & recovery
Lead investigator: Francesco Simone Lucid

Coronavirus effects on the U.S. unemployment: evidence from Google trends

This paper investigates the relationship between Google search queries of "coronavirus" and "unemployment" using daily data from the United States. The investigation is achieved by employing a structural vector autoregression mode...
Lead investigator: Hakan Yilmazkuday

The responses of consumption and prices in Japan to the Covid-19 crisis and the Tohoku earthquake

This note compares the responses of consumption and prices to the Covid-19 shock and another large-scale natural disaster that hit Japan, the Tohoku earthquake in March 2011. The comparison shows that the responses of supermarket sales and prices at ...
Primary Topic: Lessons from history
Secondary Topic: Prices & interest rates
Lead investigator: Tsutomu Watanabe

What do we learn from SARS-CoV-1 to SARS-CoV-2 evidence from global stock markets

This paper studies global stock market reactions to Covid-19 outbreaks caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2. The stock markets in countries that suffered from 2003 SARS diseases caused by a similar virus (SARS-CoV-1) react more quickly and strongly to the ...
Primary Topic: Lessons from history
Secondary Topic: Prices & interest rates
Lead investigator: Hong Ru

Covid-19 pandemic, public attention, and policy responses

Despite all countries being affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, the government's' responses have varied extensively in terms of speed, policy content, as well as the level of compulsion. We explore to what extent differences in the timing of...
Lead investigator: Cevat Giray Aksoy

Shutdown policies and worldwide conflict

We provide real-time evidence on the impact of Covid-19 restrictions policies on conflicts globally. We combine daily information on conflict events and government policy responses to limit the spread of coronavirus to study how conflict levels vary ...
Primary Topic: Crime & policing
Lead investigator: Nicolas Berman

Birds of a feather lockdown together: mutual bird-human benefits during a global pandemic

Feeding backyard wildlife has impure public good characteristics – it can satisfy specific human motivations whilst also improving bird populations. We document a surge in human interest in connecting with wild birds during lockdowns to address the...
Lead investigator: Michael Brock

The economic effects of Covid-19 containment measures

Many countries around the world have implemented stringent containment measures to halt the spread of the 2019 coronavirus disease (Covid-19) and limit the number of fatalities. Though crucial to slow the course of the pandemic, these measures entail...
Lead investigator: Pragyan Deb

The sooner, the better: the early economic impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the Covid-19 pandemic

The size of the economic shocks triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic and the effects of the associated non-pharmaceutical interventions have not been fully assessed because the official economic indicators have not been published. This paper provides e...
Primary Topic: Recession & recovery
Lead investigator: Asli Demirgüç-Kunt

Does the EU convergence machine still work and how will the Covid-19 crisis impact it?

Economic convergence has been one of the explicit goals of the EU from its very beginning. The prospect of higher living standards has undeniably been a major attraction of EU membership. Conversely, economic divergence may undermine support for the ...
Lead investigator: Patrick Bisciari

Covid-19, stay-at-home orders and well-being: evidence from Google trends

We investigate the impact of the government response to Covid-19 on health and well-being using Google Trends Data. More precisely, we aim to test the impact of stay-at home orders on 12 Google Trends topics related to health and well-being in the US...
Secondary Topic: Families & households
Lead investigator: Abel Brodeur

The Covid-19 pandemic and sovereign bond risk

Governments around the world are tackling the Covid-19 pandemic with a mix of public health, fiscal, macroprudential, monetary, or market-based policies. We aim to quantify the impact on European sovereign CDS spreads of the pandemic and the policy m...
Primary Topic: Prices & interest rates
Secondary Topic: Trade & supply chains
Lead investigator: Alin Marius Andries

Economics of Covid-19 multilateral foreign aid

This paper provides an empirical study of the link between Covid-19 aid to developing countries by multilateral organizations and the level of democracy in the recipient countries. In particular, we test whether developing countries with lower level ...
Secondary Topic: Nations, regions & cities
Lead investigator: Sherzod B. Akhundjanov

Measuring worldwide Covid-19 attitudes and beliefs

We use a large-scale survey covering 58 countries and over 100,000 responses to study beliefs and attitudes towards citizens' and governments' responses to the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. Data collection is ongoing and we hope to maint...
Lead investigator: Dr. Christopher Roth

Cross-country economic policy response to Covid-19

With the Covid-19 is still spreading at a rapid pace, the social distancing measures and economic policy response to Covid-19 varies a great deal across countries. For example, Germany’s response to the Covid-19 is very aggressive compared to Swede...
Primary Topic: Recession & recovery
Lead investigator: Sajid M. Chaudhry

Covid-19 and conflict

What does Covid-19, and more specifically national responses to the pandemic, mean for inter-group conflict worldwide? We start by drawing an important distinction between interpersonal conflict (including, e.g., domestic violence) and inter-group co...
Primary Topic: Crime & policing
Lead investigator: Jeffrey R. Bloem

Infectious diseases, social distancing and firm dynamics

In this project, we study the economic costs and trade-offs associated to the mitigation measures of social distancing intended to counteract the spread of an epidemic disease. To do so, we introduce the SIR model of epidemic progression in an otherw...
Primary Topic: Recession & recovery
Secondary Topic: Business, big & small
Lead investigator: Andrea Chiavari

Do stock markets play a role in determining the Covid-19 economic stimulus? A cross-country analysis

This paper makes an innovative contribution to the literature by analyzing the determinants of the Covid-19 economic stimulus. In particular, we explore whether the stock market fall observed due to the coronavirus pandemic in many countries around t...
Secondary Topic: Recession & recovery
Lead investigator: Sajid M. Chaudhry

Disasters and defaults

How does the risk of a disaster, such as a climate disaster or an epidemic, affect the default risk of a sovereign country and its ability to issue debt? To analyze this question, we introduce disaster risk into a small open economy model with endoge...
Primary Topic: Recession & recovery
Secondary Topic: Prices & interest rates
Lead investigator: Toan Phan

Debt sharing after Covid-19: how the direct involvement of EU institutions impacts the recovery path of a member state.

The substantial risk to public health posed by the emergence of Covid-19 has resulted in many European Governments taking unprecedented action to arrest the spread of the virus. Administrative closures across a number of economies has resulted in a c...
Primary Topic: Recession & recovery
Secondary Topic: Prices & interest rates
Lead investigator: Kieran McQuinn