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Current Research

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Economists from around the world are using real time data collection to better understand the impact the Covid-19 crisis is having on families, workers, firms and society, and how policies can help the recovery out of the crisis. Find out more about how these research teams are carrying out their projects, and what their findings are below.

Labor market flows and the Covid-19 economy

I examine labor market flows in the CPS through March 2020. Although there was a dramatic single month increase in the unemployment rate and exit rate from employment, most cyclical flows (hiring, employer-to-employer flows, quits) have not yet chang...
Lead investigator: Eliza Forsythe
Countries

Effect of a federal paid sick leave mandate on physical mobility

Physical distancing is a vital non-pharmaceutical strategy to overcome the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) public health threat. The inability to take paid leave from work that cannot be conducted remotely is a crucial barrier to individuals bein...
Secondary Topic: Health, physical & mental
Lead investigator: Martin Anderson
Countries

Covid-19-related school closures: impact on students in their final high school years

Students in their final high school years are faced with long lasting career decisions under high uncertainty and they are pressured to perform well in their high-stake exams. The government regulations following the Covid-19 pandemic such as school ...
Lead investigator: Malte Sandner
Countries

Consumer responses to the Covid-19 crisis: evidence from bank account transaction data

This paper uses transaction-level customer data from the largest bank in Denmark to estimate consumer responses to the Covid-19 pandemic and the partial shutdown of the economy. We find that aggregate card spending has dropped sharply by around 25% f...
Primary Topic: Recession & recovery
Secondary Topic: Inequality & poverty
Lead investigator: Asger Lau Anderson
Countries

Polarization and public health: partisan differences in social distancing during the Coronavirus pandemic

We study partisan differences in Americans' response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Political leaders and media outlets on the right and left have sent divergent messages about the severity of the crisis, which could impact the extent to which Republ...
Lead investigator: Hunt Allcott
Countries

Pandemics meet democracy. experimental evidence from the Covid-19 crisis in Spain

The Covid-19 outbreak poses an unprecedented challenge for contemporary democracies. Despite the global scale of the problem, the response has been mainly national, and global coordination has been so far extremely weak. All over the world government...
Lead investigator: Francesc Amat
Countries

Macroeconomic effects and spillovers among countries of the Covid-19 pandemic

Since December 2019, the Covid-19 pandemic spread worldwide from China, passing to Europe in February 2020, and lastly in the US, in March 2020. According to the Air Transport Association, in February 2020 the global growth rate of air passengers dem...
Primary Topic: Recession & recovery
Lead investigator: Francesco Simone Lucid

How much of China and world GDP has the Coronavirus reduced?

Using a network approach, we estimate the output loss due to the lockdown of the Hubei province triggered by the coronavirus disease (Covid-19). Based on our most conservative estimate, China suffers about 4% loss of output from labor loss, and globa...
Primary Topic: Recession & recovery
Lead investigator: Shaowen Luo
Countries

Adoption of telework and e-learning during Covid-19 lockdown

This paper studies: a) the impact of Covid-19 lockdown measures on the adoption of teleworking and e-learning, and b) its socioeconomic determinants. Using real-time data on Google search Trends aggregated at the province level in Italy, I study how ...
Secondary Topic: Jobs, work, pay & benefits
Lead investigator: Marta C Lopes
Countries

The responses of consumption and prices in Japan to the Covid-19 crisis and the Tohoku earthquake

This note compares the responses of consumption and prices to the Covid-19 shock and another large-scale natural disaster that hit Japan, the Tohoku earthquake in March 2011. The comparison shows that the responses of supermarket sales and prices at ...
Primary Topic: Lessons from history
Secondary Topic: Prices & interest rates
Lead investigator: Tsutomu Watanabe
Countries

The early effects of coronavirus-related social distancing restrictions on brands

This paper presents some of the first evidence on the effect of the spread of coronavirus (Covid-19) in the US on retail footfall traffic. The paper uses granular visit data from cell-phone tracking to estimate the shift in visits to different types ...
Primary Topic: Recession & recovery
Lead investigator: Catherine E. Tucker
Countries

Social cost with no political gain: the “Chinese virus” effect

Naming a contagious disease, such as Covid-19, by the geographic locality where the disease originates or starts, for example, Wuhan or China, may stigmatize specific ethnic groups related to that locality, and such stigmatizing behavior will further...
Lead investigator: Yixin Liu
Countries

Preferences and economic decision-making in the wake of Covid-19: experimental evidence from China

Using a large-scale experiment in China we study whether exposure to a major public health crisis affects the stability of economic preferences. We utilise a unique three-wave panel dataset of 539 students at Beijing Universities, collected in Octobe...
Secondary Topic: Health, physical & mental
Lead investigator: Paul Lohmann
Countries

Coronavirus effects on the U.S. unemployment: evidence from Google trends

This paper investigates the relationship between Google search queries of "coronavirus" and "unemployment" using daily data from the United States. The investigation is achieved by employing a structural vector autoregression mode...
Lead investigator: Hakan Yilmazkuday
Countries

Coronavirus disease 2019 and the global economy

Using daily data on the global coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) deaths, this paper investigates the corresponding effects on the global economic activity measured by the Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI). The empirical results based on a structural ...
Primary Topic: Recession & recovery
Lead investigator: Hakan Yilmazkuday

Containing the virus or reviving the economy? evidence from individual expectations during the Covid-19 epidemic

How does an epidemic affect individuals' expectation on economic prospects? We implement an incentivized longitudinal online survey with randomized controlled trials during the Covid-19 epidemic in China to answer this question. We find that low...
Lead investigator: Keyang Li
Countries

Belief change to market economy or planned economy? shock from Covid-19

Covid-19 has caused panic buying, temporary supply shortage and soaring prices. The Chinese government has formulated restrictive policies to guide the market order. We are curious whether the epidemic had an impact on the belief in the economic syst...
Lead investigator: Naixi Liu
Countries

What do we learn from SARS-CoV-1 to SARS-CoV-2 evidence from global stock markets

This paper studies global stock market reactions to Covid-19 outbreaks caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2. The stock markets in countries that suffered from 2003 SARS diseases caused by a similar virus (SARS-CoV-1) react more quickly and strongly to the ...
Primary Topic: Lessons from history
Secondary Topic: Prices & interest rates
Lead investigator: Hong Ru

The invisible risk: pandemics and the financial markets

Are pandemics systemically important to modern-day financial markets? This study uses the Covid-19 pandemic as a natural experiment for testing how large-scale pandemics affect the financial markets. Using hand-collected data at the firm level, I fin...
Primary Topic: Banks & financial markets
Lead investigator: Jordan Schoenfeld
Countries

Staying home saves lives, really!

As coronavirus disease (Covid-19) is spreading around the world, many national and local governments have imposed social restrictive measures to limit the spread of the virus. Such quarantine measures in different cities across the world have brought...
Primary Topic: Crime & policing
Lead investigator: Soheil Shayegh
Countries