Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

Is gold a safe haven for investors?

The price of gold has risen in recent years, highlighting the role of this precious metal as a stable investment. While the value of gold is resilient and protected from inflation, its stability is not guaranteed in times of crisis.

Playfair prize

Student data journalism

Science, technology & innovation

The UK government’s digital transformation: how did it come about?

GOV.UK is intended to be the single point of online access for UK government information and services. The project leader in the Government Digital Service recounts the transformation in the early 2010s of over 2,500 fragmented public websites into a ‘boring’ but efficient and award-winning site.

DATA HUB

Greenland Ice Sheet: mass loss & sea level rise

Since 1972, Greenland's Ice Sheet has shrunk by approximately 6,200 gigatonnes, a trend which accelerated markedly in the 1990s, and corresponds to an almost 18 mm rise in global mean sea level.

As well as the direct environmental impact, less ice means longer Arctic shipping seasons. For example, navigable days for ice-capable ships along the Northern Sea Route have grown by around 18 days since 2008.

Longer seasons and new routes are likely to reshape Arctic shipping and intensify strategic competition over its waterways.

Science, technology & innovation

Who trusts AI?

AI tools like ChatGPT and Google Gemini have exploded in popularity over the last couple years. But while their adoption has undoubtably grown at a staggering speed, less is known about public attitudes towards the trustworthiness of these systems.

MAGAZINE

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The Post Office scandal brought into sharp focus the risks associated with placing blind faith in technology. To learn from this troubling episode and start rebuilding public trust, policy-makers must challenge the idea of the infallibility of machines within the legal system.

Transport & infrastructure

UK land and property: what’s happening with freehold and leasehold reform?

For decades, landowners have fought to maintain the legal structure governing ownership and occupancy of multi-tenanted residential blocks. But growing awareness of the legal jeopardy of being a long-term flat occupier – plus the economic constraints of land law – have prompted demands for reform.

Crime, policing & justice

Will digital failures undermine trust in the justice system?

Multiple reports of digital systems failures in the justice system have emerged in recent months. These incidents highlight a central tension in justice reform: while digital tools may improve efficiency and accessibility, they also introduce risks that can erode public trust in legal institutions.

Science, technology & innovation

The rise of artificial intelligence: What next for the UK economy?

Over the past few years, artificial intelligence has exploded in popularity, power and potential. How this continuing trend affects the UK economy will depend on how both policy-makers and domestic firms respond to the development of new digital technologies.

Trade & supply chains

Global defence spending: What next for European military procurement?

With its fragmented production process, European defence procurement is inefficient and uncompetitive in comparison to the United States. A new approach, prioritising cross-country collaborations, could improve things, but would not be without its own challenges.

Productivity & growth

Have the UK’s northern cities really experienced a productivity miracle?

While official data points to a ‘productivity miracle’ in several large northern cities since 2019, a closer look suggests otherwise. This serves as a reminder to sense-check any data before using it, regardless of the source.

Nations, regions & cities

How might policy-makers improve Moldova’s economic prospects?

Compared with other former Soviet territories, Moldova is an outlier in terms of its poor economic performance. Political instability, together with a heavy dependence on remittances as well as international loans, means policy-makers must work carefully to improve living standards through strategic reforms and closer alignment with Europe.

Aid & international development

What are the big economic challenges facing the government in Iran?

Policy-makers in Iran face numerous economic challenges. The impacts of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine – together with longer-term issues related to high unemployment, rising inflation and worsening corruption – represent a difficult puzzle for Ebrahim Raisi’s government to solve.

Nations, regions & cities

Why did Venezuela’s economy collapse?

The Venezuelan economy has suffered from decades of disastrous economic policies – and more recently, from economic sanctions. The country has seen the largest ever decline in living standards outside war, revolution or the collapse of the state.

Nations, regions & cities

From crisis to stability: what next for Bolivia’s economy?

Bolivia is at a decisive moment in its modern economic and political history, after nearly two decades of dominance by the Movement Toward Socialism party. Whoever ends up taking charge will need to draw up an economic stabilisation programme – though implementing it will be challenging.

Trade & supply chains

What effects have energy sanctions had on Russia’s ability to wage war?

Despite facing unprecedented sanctions on its energy exports, Russia continues to earn hundreds of billions of dollars a year from oil and gas – directly funding military aggression in Ukraine. While sanctions have had a noticeable impact, they have failed to end the war.

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