{"id":9987,"date":"2021-02-12T00:01:00","date_gmt":"2021-02-12T00:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.economicsobservatory.com\/?post_type=question&p=9987"},"modified":"2021-02-18T13:54:54","modified_gmt":"2021-02-18T13:54:54","slug":"has-devolution-led-to-different-outcomes-during-the-covid-19-crisis","status":"publish","type":"question","link":"https:\/\/www.economicsobservatory.com\/test\/has-devolution-led-to-different-outcomes-during-the-covid-19-crisis","title":{"rendered":"Has devolution led to different outcomes during the Covid-19 crisis?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Opinion polls in Scotland suggest that many people think that the Scottish government has dealt with the pandemic more effectively than the UK government (BBC News, 2020<\/a>). It is unclear whether this perception has been driven by a marked difference in outcomes between the devolved nations \u2013 particularly Scotland \u2013 during this crisis. It is important to identify what policy decisions might explain this, and if there are other factors too that might offer a fuller explanation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Devolution during the pandemic: a recap<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Covid-19 represents the most serious health and economic crisis since devolution in 1999. Unlike during the global financial crisis of 2007-09, the devolved administrations have been on the frontline in responding to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In some policy areas \u2013 such as defence policy and monetary policy \u2013 devolution plays no role. But health is an area where devolved governments have virtually complete authority to act independently of Westminster. Not only is health policy devolved to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, but many of the mechanisms through which policy-makers have attempted to constrain the spread of the virus \u2013 restrictions on social gatherings, education, transport and businesses \u2013 are also the responsibility of lawmakers in Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Scottish government has used these powers, announcing its own policies, which appear, at first glance, to differ from the UK government\u2019s approach. For example, the Scottish government published a \u2018Route-Map\u2019<\/a> in May 2020, separate from the UK\u2019s \u2018Plan to Rebuild\u2019<\/a>. This was then followed by its own guidance<\/a> for businesses during lockdown, and the introduction of a Scottish Strategic Framework<\/a> for classifying degrees of local restrictions \u2013 with five levels<\/em> as opposed to the three-phased<\/em> approach in England.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There have also been variations in the timing of restrictions<\/a>. For example, the Scottish government was slower in lifting some of the constraints on certain types of business during the summer than other parts of the UK. There have also been local lockdowns and subtle differences in messaging, particularly as the second (and third) waves of Covid-19 took hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is not obvious, however, to what extent these differences have been in substance or style (or both). For example, it is unclear from a public health perspective why in classifying local restrictions Scotland needs \u2018levels\u2019, England \u2018tiers\u2019 and Wales \u2018traffic lights\u2019. In the same vein, the Scottish government\u2019s slogan of \u2018stay safe, protect others, save lives\u2019 is similar but not identical to the UK government\u2019s original request to \u2018stay alert, control the virus, save lives\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UK and Scotland during the pandemic<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

To look for any difference in outcomes across the nations of the UK, it is useful to evaluate key data tracking public health and economic performance. It is, of course, not possible to make definitive conclusions at this stage. In the knowledge that analysis will improve with time, what follows is a summary of some headline statistics, set out with the aim of trying to understand a fast-moving crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Public health<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To date, there have been over 100,000 deaths in England within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test, over 6,500 in Scotland, over 5,000 in Wales and almost 2,000 in Northern Ireland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1 shows the evolution of the Covid-19 case rate (per million people) in each UK nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1: Positive Covid cases, by nation of the UK<\/h4>\n\n\n
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