{"id":17921,"date":"2022-04-29T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-04-29T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.economicsobservatory.com\/?post_type=question&p=17921"},"modified":"2022-04-28T13:16:31","modified_gmt":"2022-04-28T12:16:31","slug":"northern-irelands-election","status":"publish","type":"question","link":"https:\/\/www.economicsobservatory.com\/test\/northern-irelands-election","title":{"rendered":"Northern Ireland\u2019s election"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Newsletter from 29 April 2022<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike the devolved legislative assemblies in Wales and Scotland, the Northern Ireland Assembly<\/a> has power-sharing at its core. This means that unionists and nationalists both participate in governing the nation and that cross-community support from both groups is required for legislation to be passed. This arrangement is part of the Belfast or Good Friday Agreement<\/a> \u2013 the 1998 deal that brought a cessation to the long period of violence and instability known as the Troubles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But power-sharing has its downside. Without agreement from both sides of the sectarian divide, a government cannot be formed, and if one side withdraws its support, the whole government collapses. Since the Assembly\u2019s inauguration in 1999, Northern Ireland has been without a government for nearly eight of the past 22 years<\/a>. Most recently, the Assembly was suspended from 9 January 2017 to 11 January 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Northern Ireland Protocol<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Brexit has contributed to political instability and tensions in Northern Ireland. The UK\u2019s exit from the European Union (EU) meant that a border check for goods either needed to be on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland or between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latter was chosen, and the Northern Ireland Protocol came into effect in early 2021. The Protocol means that goods coming from Great Britain into Northern Ireland are checked to ensure compliance with the tariff and non-tariff aspects of the EU\u2019s single market and customs union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The implementation of the Protocol has caused unionist political parties to become vexed about Northern Ireland \u2019s constitutional position within the UK and is playing a major role in the upcoming election. The main slogan of one unionist party is \u2018No Sea Border\u2019. Unionist parties may also be unwilling to form a government with the Protocol in its current guise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leaving aside the constitutional question, Esmond Birnie (Ulster University) in his Economics Observatory article<\/a> this week examines the economic impact of the Protocol. For me, there are two main takeaways from his piece. First, we need much better data to assess the impact of the Protocol and to establish the winners and losers from it. A careful and detailed economic appraisal may help to allay wider concerns. Second, there are several policy options available that could help to reduce the regulatory burden of the Protocol.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fixing the NHS<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The NHS in Northern Ireland is in a mess. Ciaran O\u2019Neill (Queen's University Belfast) in his piece<\/a> highlights the extent of the problem. Prior to the pandemic, the number of people waiting over a year for a consultant-led outpatient appointment was 100 times greater in Northern Ireland than in England, despite England\u2019s population being 29 times larger than that of Northern Ireland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The solutions to fixing the NHS in Northern Ireland have been long known \u2013 rationalisation of the hospital sector, better workforce planning, long-term budget setting and sustained investment. So, why haven\u2019t these things happened? Political instability and the design of Northern Ireland\u2019s political institutions mean that politicians have not had a long-term vision for the NHS and do not have the incentives to reform it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growing the economy<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Productivity is central to growing the Northern Irish economy and it needs to take centre stage in the next government's economic policy. The nation\u2019s productivity is almost 20% lower than the UK average. What needs to be done to close this substantial gap?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Jordan (Queen's University Belfast) in his article on skills<\/a> shows how Northern Ireland\u2019s attainment gap and brain drain affect the province\u2019s productivity (Figure 1). The incoming government will need to make this skills deficit one of its top priorities. This will require difficult decisions about inefficient and divided school systems, investment in lifelong learning and improved funding for further and higher education.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1: Educational attainment of individuals aged 16-64, in 2020<\/h4>\n\n\n
\n
<\/div>\n\n