{"id":17504,"date":"2022-03-25T16:34:05","date_gmt":"2022-03-25T16:34:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.economicsobservatory.com\/?post_type=question&p=17504"},"modified":"2022-03-28T11:52:35","modified_gmt":"2022-03-28T10:52:35","slug":"war-stories","status":"publish","type":"question","link":"https:\/\/www.economicsobservatory.com\/test\/war-stories","title":{"rendered":"War stories"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Newsletter from 25 March 2022<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hopes of 2022 being a better year for humanity than the previous two have been horrifically dashed by Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. While the natural catastrophe of the pandemic was devastating for the lives and livelihoods of millions, it was an experience to which the world was responding collectively \u2013 and we could all contribute, even if it was just by staying at home. It\u2019s difficult not to feel helpless faced with the man-made disaster of war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what can we do? One possibility is giving to charities that support victims: indeed, an appeal by the Disasters Emergency Committee (DEC) has already received donations of more than \u00a3200 million<\/a>. As Sarah Smith<\/a> (University of Bristol), one of our lead editors, points out on the Economics Observatory this week, that already makes it DEC\u2019s second largest fundraising initiative in more than 50 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sarah notes that while some critics have accused European donors of caring more about a humanitarian crisis unfolding on their doorstep than about similar tragedies further afield, evidence<\/a> suggests that this is not the case. Rather, it is the scale of a disaster, together with media coverage, that most influence the response to an emergency appeal: DEC\u2019s biggest ever fundraiser followed the tsunami in the Indian Ocean in 2004.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another way to help is to welcome refugees from Ukraine. And as Sascha Becker<\/a> (Monash University and University of Warwick) explains in another recent Observatory piece, we shouldn\u2019t just be looking to provide shelter and safety to the millions of forced migrants: we also need to offer access to education. Evidence from history<\/a>, notably the millions of Polish people expelled from their homes during the Second World War, demonstrates the lifelong benefits of investment in human capital, particularly of refugee children, at the earliest opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A third potential contribution to the war effort is to make the case for an embargo against Russian oil and gas. Here at the Observatory, in our first piece on Ukraine, Erkal Ersoy<\/a> and Chris Aitken<\/a> (both Heriot-Watt University) explored the options for diversifying Europe's energy supply<\/a> away from Russia, concluding that while the continent could realistically meet its energy requirements without Russia in the medium to long term, it is unlikely in the immediate future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, a number of economists have been active in the campaign for action now. These include researcher turned politician Luis Garicano<\/a>; former rector of the New Economic School in Moscow Sergei Guriev<\/a>; Ben Moll<\/a> (London School of Economics) and colleagues, whose analysis of the impact <\/a>of stopping energy imports from Russia on Germany\u2019s economy suggests it would be severe but manageable; and a poll of economic experts<\/a>, several of whom indicated that while a total ban on Russian energy risks recession in Western Europe, it is a price worth paying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other notable contributions from economists to discussions of the economic consequences of the war, include a report by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR<\/a>), whose director Jagjit Chadha<\/a>, another of our lead editors, provided evidence to inform a House of Commons Treasury Committee report on economic sanctions on Russia<\/a>; a debate hosted by VoxEU<\/a>, featuring analysis by Luis, Sergei, Ben and many other experts; and the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE<\/a>) led by Tymofiy Mylovanov<\/a>, which together with Ukrainian businesses and state-owned companies, has launched a humanitarian aid campaign for Ukraine<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spring season<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

While it is hard to think about anything other than what\u2019s unfolding in Eastern Europe, let me mention some events in April and May that are likely to interest Observatory readers. Spring is generally a busy time of year for meetings in economic research and policy-making \u2013 and no fewer than six upcoming conferences are worth exploring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic History Society 2022 annual conference (#EHS2022), Cambridge, 1-3 April<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

First up, the annual gathering of the UK\u2019s economic historians<\/a> features several researchers<\/a> who\u2019ve written for us on key questions: what can looking back at the past<\/a> teach us about dealing with pandemics, recessions and related crises? And can it help us think through how best to \u2018build back better\u2019<\/a>, notably in the aftermath of war?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

John Turner<\/a>, another of our lead editors, is managing editor of the Society\u2019s journal, the Economic History Review<\/em><\/a>. He has also contributed to the Observatory this week in a piece asking where Russia\u2019s post-communism economic reforms went wrong. John notes that since the early 1990s, both Russia and China have reformed their economies \u2013 but the paths taken have been very different. In Russia, the speed of privatisation, alongside inadequate laws and institutions, led to economic collapse and ultimately the rise of Vladimir Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

#EconomicPolicy, Paris, 7-8 April<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR<\/a>) will be holding the half-yearly meeting of the journal Economic Policy<\/a> in a hybrid format \u2013 online and in Paris at the French finance ministry, Direction G\u00e9n\u00e9rale du Tr\u00e9sor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The standout session is an online public debate on the potential effects of school closures during the pandemic on children\u2019s futures<\/a>, featuring new evidence from Germany and the United States presented by Nicola Fuchs-Sch\u00fcndeln<\/a> (Goethe University Frankfurt). On the panel will be Monica Costa-Dias<\/a> (University of Bristol and the Institute for Fiscal Studies, IFS) and Andreas Schleicher<\/a> (director for education and skills at the OECD), and the discussion will be moderated by<\/strong> Andrew Jack<\/a>, global education editor at the Financial Times<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Royal Economic Society 2022 annual conference (#RES2022), online, 11-13 April<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UK\u2019s annual gathering for economists<\/a> features a presidential address by Tim Besley<\/a>, another lead editor, and contributor of Observatory pieces on a national infrastructure bank<\/a> for the UK and how an independent Scotland might build fiscal capacity<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Further RES conference highlights include plenary lectures by Stefanie Stantcheva<\/a> (Harvard), who has written for us about policy actions on inequality<\/a>, and Nicholas Bloom<\/a> (Stanford), who has contributed to several Observatory pieces on the impact of the pandemic on firms and industries<\/a>, and its effects on future working arrangements<\/a>; plus former RES president Partha Dasgupta<\/a>, lead author of the independent government review of the economics of biodiversity<\/a>, in conversation with Diane Coyle<\/a>, another of our lead editors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scottish Economic Society 2022 annual conference (#SES2022), Glasgow, 25-27 April<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Towards the end of the month, the birthplace of economics hosts the annual gathering<\/a> of economists in Scotland, including some policy roundtables in Edinburgh and Glasgow with the Observatory. No doubt there will discussion of some of the issues raised in our continuing series on the economics of Scottish independence<\/a>, curated by Graeme Roy<\/a> (University of Glasgow), another of our lead editors, and Stuart McIntyre<\/a> (University of Strathclyde).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The role of economics and economists in public policy and public debate, Chicago, 28-29 April<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This conference<\/a>, which will examine how economists engage with different groups of people outside academia, is hosted by the Initiative on Global Markets (IGM) at the University of Chicago. I am co-organising it with Chicago Booth economists, Anil Kashyap<\/a>, who is also a member of the Bank of England\u2019s Financial Policy Committee, and Christian Leuz<\/a>, who has written for us on mandatory corporate reporting on sustainability<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Topics will include how economists influence public policy and public opinion, teaching approaches, evidence-based policy-making, the debate over the causes and consequences of inequality, and an analysis of responses in the IGM expert panels<\/a> \u2013 the last an issue that has been discussed recently on the Observatory by Sarah Smith in a piece on women\u2019s voices in economics<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ESCoE conference on economic measurement 2022, Glasgow, 25-27 May<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE<\/a>) will hold its annual conference<\/a>, organised in partnership with the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) at the University of Strathclyde. The Observatory will be running a data masterclass introducing best practice in data visualisation and a 'code along' to create an interactive chart (including using the ONS API). We're also contributing to a panel on effective communication of data and statistics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0Other news<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Society of Professional Economists is inviting entries for this year's\u00a0Rybczynski Prize<\/a>. This prestigious award is given to the best piece of writing on an issue of importance to economists, and offers individuals the opportunity to increase their profile among professional colleagues.\u00a0The Society is particularly keen to receive\u00a0entries from women.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The big economic news story in the UK this week has been the government\u2019s spring statement. Many of the economic experts and organisations that work with us at the Observatory are key contributors to the in-depth independent evaluation of economic policy announcements like this, and their implications for families, firms, public finances and the economic recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As ever, the IFS<\/a> provided detailed pre- and post-match analysis. So too did NIESR<\/a>, the Resolution Foundation<\/a> (which focuses on living standards of low and middle-income households) and, with a Scottish perspective, the Fraser of Allander Institute<\/a> at the University of Strathclyde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And finally, next week on the Observatory, we\u2019ll be launching a series of pieces on what we\u2019ve learned about the impact of the pandemic two years on from the first lockdown in March 2020. These will include a look at what\u2019s happened to businesses in the UK as a result of restrictions and recession, and an overview of the past, present and future effects of Covid-19 on public health. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author: Romesh Vaitilingam, Editor-in-Chief<\/h5>\n\n\n\n
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