{"id":16915,"date":"2022-02-15T01:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-02-15T01:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.economicsobservatory.com\/?post_type=question&#038;p=16915"},"modified":"2022-02-15T09:08:42","modified_gmt":"2022-02-15T09:08:42","slug":"uk-public-finances-what-do-the-latest-data-tell-us","status":"publish","type":"question","link":"https:\/\/www.economicsobservatory.com\/test\/uk-public-finances-what-do-the-latest-data-tell-us","title":{"rendered":"UK public finances: what do the latest data tell us?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/economy\/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes\/publicsectorfinance\/bulletins\/publicsectorfinances\/december2021\">the latest data<\/a>, the UK\u2019s public finances remain under substantial pressure from the burden of coronavirus support measures. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that between March 2020 and April 2021, government borrowing as a percentage of total output was 15%, the highest it has been since 1946.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Figure 1: Government borrowing as a percentage of GDP<\/h4>\n\n\n<section class=\"blocks__chart\">\n    <div id=\"chatEmbed397993\" class=\"blocks__chart-svg\"><\/div>\n\n    <script>\n        var spec = {\"$schema\":\"https:\\\/\\\/vega.github.io\\\/schema\\\/vega-lite\\\/v5.json\",\"height\":350,\"width\":400,\"data\":{\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/raw.githubusercontent.com\\\/RDeconomist\\\/observatory\\\/main\\\/BEN.DATA_C1a.csv\"},\"mark\":{\"type\":\"bar\",\"color\":\"#e6224b\"},\"encoding\":{\"x\":{\"field\":\"date\",\"type\":\"temporal\",\"sort\":[],\"axis\":{\"grid\":false},\"title\":null},\"y\":{\"field\":\"value\",\"type\":\"quantitative\",\"axis\":{\"grid\":false},\"title\":null},\"tooltip\":[{\"field\":\"date\",\"type\":\"temporal\",\"title\":\"Year\",\"timeUnit\":\"year\"},{\"field\":\"value\",\"type\":\"quantitative\",\"title\":\"Net borrowing (% GDP)\"}]}};\n        var view = new vega.View(vega.parse(spec), {\n            responsive: true,\n            renderer: \"canvas\", \/\/ renderer (canvas or svg)\n            container: \"#chatEmbed397993\", \/\/ parent DOM container\n            hover: true \/\/ enable hover processing\n        });\n        view.run();\n\n        vegaEmbed('#chatEmbed397993', spec);\n    <\/script>\n<\/section>\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Source: ONS, OBR<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>In recent history, the government has frequently borrowed and spent more than it has taken in tax revenue. In fact, a budget deficit of 3-4% has been the norm <a href=\"https:\/\/commonslibrary.parliament.uk\/research-briefings\/sn06167\/\">since 1970<\/a>. According to the latest data, government borrowing between April and December 2021 was nearly half what it was in the same period in 2020. But at \u00a3146.8 billion, it was still the second highest figure for these nine months since records began in 1993.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The stock of government borrowing (public sector net debt) also continues to grow. At \u00a32,340 billion, it is currently equivalent to 96% of UK annual GDP (see Figure 2). This is the highest it has been since the early 1960s, when the country was still recovering from the Second World War.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Public sector net debt excluding public sector banks is the amount of money the public sector owes to private sector organisations (it is often called \u2018the national debt\u2019). The difference between net debt and gross debt is that the former subtracts financial assets (it measures theoretically how much debt would be left if the public sector sold all of its financial assets). The Bank of England\u2019s asset buying with electronically created money since the global financial crisis of 2007-09, known as quantitative easing, contributes \u00a3324 billion to the net debt figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Figure 2: Net debt to GDP 1994-2021 (% of GDP)<\/h4>\n\n\n<section class=\"blocks__chart\">\n    <div id=\"chatEmbed202378\" class=\"blocks__chart-svg\"><\/div>\n\n    <script>\n        var spec = {\"$schema\":\"https:\\\/\\\/vega.github.io\\\/schema\\\/vega-lite\\\/v5.json\",\"height\":350,\"width\":400,\"data\":{\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/raw.githubusercontent.com\\\/RDeconomist\\\/observatory\\\/main\\\/BEN.DATA_C2.csv\"},\"mark\":\"bar\",\"encoding\":{\"x\":{\"field\":\"date\",\"type\":\"temporal\",\"title\":null,\"axis\":{\"grid\":false}},\"y\":{\"field\":\"value\",\"type\":\"quantitative\",\"axis\":{\"grid\":false},\"title\":null},\"color\":{\"field\":\"date\",\"type\":\"nominal\",\"scale\":{\"range\":[\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#122b39\"]},\"legend\":null},\"tooltip\":[{\"field\":\"date\",\"type\":\"temporal\",\"title\":\"Year\",\"timeUnit\":\"year\"},{\"field\":\"value\",\"type\":\"quantitative\",\"title\":\"Net debt (% GDP)\"}]}};\n        var view = new vega.View(vega.parse(spec), {\n            responsive: true,\n            renderer: \"canvas\", \/\/ renderer (canvas or svg)\n            container: \"#chatEmbed202378\", \/\/ parent DOM container\n            hover: true \/\/ enable hover processing\n        });\n        view.run();\n\n        vegaEmbed('#chatEmbed202378', spec);\n    <\/script>\n<\/section>\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Source: ONS<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>For December alone, public spending in 2021 outstripped tax revenue by nearly \u00a317 billion. This resulted in the fourth largest December borrowing on record. Net debt was slightly lower than it was a year previously, but was still almost three times as high as the pre-pandemic levels (see Figure 3).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Figure 3: Monthly public borrowing 2019-2021 (\u00a3, billion)<\/h4>\n\n\n<section class=\"blocks__chart\">\n    <div id=\"chatEmbed44285\" class=\"blocks__chart-svg\"><\/div>\n\n    <script>\n        var spec = {\"$schema\":\"https:\\\/\\\/vega.github.io\\\/schema\\\/vega-lite\\\/v5.json\",\"height\":350,\"width\":400,\"data\":{\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/raw.githubusercontent.com\\\/RDeconomist\\\/observatory\\\/main\\\/BEN.DATA_C3a.csv\"},\"mark\":\"bar\",\"encoding\":{\"x\":{\"field\":\"date\",\"type\":\"temporal\",\"title\":null,\"axis\":{\"grid\":false}},\"y\":{\"field\":\"value\",\"type\":\"quantitative\",\"axis\":{\"grid\":false},\"title\":null},\"color\":{\"field\":\"date\",\"type\":\"nominal\",\"scale\":{\"range\":[\"#122b39\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#122b39\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#e6224b\",\"#122b39\"]},\"legend\":null},\"tooltip\":[{\"field\":\"date\",\"type\":\"temporal\",\"title\":\"Year\",\"timeUnit\":\"yearmonth\"},{\"field\":\"value\",\"type\":\"quantitative\",\"title\":\"Net debt (\\u00a3 billion)\"}]}};\n        var view = new vega.View(vega.parse(spec), {\n            responsive: true,\n            renderer: \"canvas\", \/\/ renderer (canvas or svg)\n            container: \"#chatEmbed44285\", \/\/ parent DOM container\n            hover: true \/\/ enable hover processing\n        });\n        view.run();\n\n        vegaEmbed('#chatEmbed44285', spec);\n    <\/script>\n<\/section>\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Source: ONS<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>What do the latest data tell us about the Treasury\u2019s tax receipts? The biggest proportional increases in revenue for December 2021 were in stamp duty and business rates \u2013 two levies that were temporarily cut during 2020. This means that last year\u2019s figures were <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-53319433\">artificially<\/a> lower than usual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the expenditure side, total spending \u2018only\u2019 fell by \u00a31 billion in December 2021, as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/changes-to-the-coronavirus-job-retention-scheme\/changes-to-the-coronavirus-job-retention-scheme\">end<\/a> of furlough payments to employees and self-employment support was cancelled out by a tripling of debt interest payments. This added over \u00a35 billion to the government\u2019s outgoings compared with a year earlier and was a December record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What caused this uptick in debt interest obligations? The government finances its borrowing by selling bonds (interest-bearing IOUs) to investors, including the Bank of England. The interest payments on some of these bonds are linked to the rate of price increase across the economy (inflation).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Inflation is currently at its highest level in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-60050699\">30 years<\/a>, and the Bank of England doubled its main interest rate at its February meeting \u2013 from 0.25% to 0.5% \u2013 as it attempts to bring inflation back to its 2% target. This hike in interest rates, with more expected soon, further increases the cost of government borrowing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The UK is not alone: other advanced economies are also experiencing <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.imf.org\/2021\/12\/15\/global-debt-reaches-a-record-226-trillion\/\">extraordinarily<\/a> high peace-time debt levels (see Figure 4). Nor is it alone in facing rapidly rising inflation: the United States is currently experiencing price growth of around 7%, and the country\u2019s central bank, the Federal Reserve, is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2022\/jan\/26\/us-federal-reserve-rise-interest-inflation\">expected<\/a> to raise interest rates further as a result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Figure 4: General government gross debt across the G7 (% of GDP, in December 2020)<\/h4>\n\n\n<section class=\"blocks__chart\">\n    <div id=\"chatEmbed987714\" class=\"blocks__chart-svg\"><\/div>\n\n    <script>\n        var spec = {\"$schema\":\"https:\\\/\\\/vega.github.io\\\/schema\\\/vega-lite\\\/v5.json\",\"description\":\"Regional PAYE employment\",\"height\":350,\"width\":400,\"data\":{\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/raw.githubusercontent.com\\\/RDeconomist\\\/observatory\\\/main\\\/BEN.DATA_C4.csv\"},\"mark\":\"bar\",\"encoding\":{\"x\":{\"field\":\"location\",\"type\":\"nominal\",\"sort\":[],\"title\":null,\"axis\":{\"labelAngle\":35}},\"y\":{\"field\":\"value\",\"type\":\"quantitative\",\"title\":null,\"axis\":{\"grid\":false}},\"color\":{\"field\":\"location\",\"type\":\"nominal\",\"scale\":{\"range\":[\"#36b7b4\",\"#36b7b4\",\"#36b7b4\",\"#36b7b4\",\"#36b7b4\",\"#36b7b4\",\"#36b7b4\",\"#122b39\"]},\"legend\":null},\"tooltip\":[{\"field\":\"location\",\"type\":\"nominal\",\"title\":\"Country\\\/region\"},{\"field\":\"value\",\"type\":\"quantitative\",\"title\":\"Government gross debt (% GDP)\"}]}};\n        var view = new vega.View(vega.parse(spec), {\n            responsive: true,\n            renderer: \"canvas\", \/\/ renderer (canvas or svg)\n            container: \"#chatEmbed987714\", \/\/ parent DOM container\n            hover: true \/\/ enable hover processing\n        });\n        view.run();\n\n        vegaEmbed('#chatEmbed987714', spec);\n    <\/script>\n<\/section>\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Source: ONS, IMF<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>The December ONS data confirm that debt interest payments are set to play a significant role in public sector finances over the coming months. Whether central banks are able to tame inflation is likely to determine how much headroom governments around the world have for continued elevated levels of public spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Where can I find out more?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>The full data release from the ONS is available <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/economy\/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes\/publicsectorfinance\/bulletins\/publicsectorfinances\/december2021\">here<\/a>. <\/li><li>A House of Commons guide to the budget deficit: <a href=\"https:\/\/commonslibrary.parliament.uk\/research-briefings\/sn06167\/\">https:\/\/commonslibrary.parliament.uk\/research-briefings\/sn06167\/<\/a><\/li><li>A BBC explainer on the UK inflation situation and the cost of living crisis: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-12196322\">https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-12196322<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Who are experts on this question?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/ifs.org.uk\/people\/profile\/77\">Paul Johnson<\/a>, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.kcl.ac.uk\/people\/robert-chote\">Robert Chote<\/a>, former Chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/profile\/1240338-duncan-weldon\">Duncan Weldon<\/a>, former <em>Economist<\/em> Britain economics correspondent<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cardiff.ac.uk\/people\/view\/609330-dixon-huw\">Huw Dixon<\/a>, Cardiff Business School<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Author: Ben Pimley<\/h5>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","categories":[493,229,225,222],"tags":[805,971,514,1127,629,1126],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>UK public finances: what do the latest data tell us? - Economics Observatory<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Government borrowing in the UK fell slightly in December 2021, as policy-makers wound down spending on Covid-19 relief measures. 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