{"id":16571,"date":"2022-01-26T01:01:00","date_gmt":"2022-01-26T01:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.economicsobservatory.com\/?post_type=question&p=16571"},"modified":"2022-01-25T11:00:10","modified_gmt":"2022-01-25T11:00:10","slug":"how-important-is-economics-in-the-debate-on-scottish-independence","status":"publish","type":"question","link":"https:\/\/www.economicsobservatory.com\/test\/how-important-is-economics-in-the-debate-on-scottish-independence","title":{"rendered":"How important is economics in the debate on Scottish independence?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Scottish voters\u2019 evaluations of the economic consequences of independence played a central role in the choice that they made in the 2014 referendum (Curtice, 2021<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In their final poll conducted before the vote, YouGov found that no less than 98% of those who said the country would be worse off<\/em> if Scotland became independent were backing \u2018No\u2019 in response to the question that the referendum asked: \u2018should Scotland be an independent country?\u2019. On the other hand, 97% of those who felt the country would be better off<\/em> intended to vote \u2018Yes\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similarly, Opinium reported that 99% of those who thought that independence would benefit the economy were backing leaving the rest of the UK, while 98% of those who felt the economy would be damaged were intending to vote to remain within the Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact that those who thought Scotland would be worse off (47%) outnumbered those who believed it would be better off (35%), and that more people felt that the economy would be damaged (45%) than believed it would benefit (37%) undoubtedly put the \u2018No\u2019 side at a decided \u2013 and perhaps even decisive \u2013 advantage. This was borne out when the Scottish electorate voted 55% to 45% in favour of remaining in the Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast to the outcome of the referendum seven and a half years ago, Scotland now \u2013\u00a0 according to the polls at least \u2013 is evenly divided in its attitude towards independence (see Figure 1). On average, the last half dozen polls<\/a> (undertaken between late October 2021 and mid-January 2022) put votes in favour in independence at 50% and against independence at 50%. Indeed, support for the two sides has been oscillating around the 50:50 mark for the last three years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1: Independence referendum vote intention since the EU referendum<\/h4>\n\n\n
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