Elo rating system<\/a> can be interpreted as a probability of each team winning the game but assumes a neutral venue. Under this system, there is a 52% chance that Italy win.<\/p>\n\n\n\nOur model then adjusts for home advantage by factoring in historically how much more often teams win when they play at home, given the Elo ratings of the teams competing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Looking at past performance can also give clues to how the match will pan out. But the historical record is quite sparse, as the two nations haven\u2019t competed all that much \u2013 just 27 times, with England winning eight, nine draws (one draw in 2012 going to penalties), and Italy winning ten (11 including the 2012 penalty shootout). England have scored 33 goals to Italy\u2019s 31.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These have been tight encounters over the years. Also, most of the England wins were in the early days, pre-1966 (W4 D4 L0). Since 1966 there have been just four wins for England, and only one of those (1977) in a competitive match \u2013 a World Cup qualifier. In World Cup and European Championship matches, England have won once, there have been two draws (including 2012), while Italy have come out on top five times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Figure 1: Elo rating history for England (red) and Italy (blue) since 1900<\/h4>\n\n\n