{"id":13021,"date":"2021-07-02T09:58:46","date_gmt":"2021-07-02T08:58:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.economicsobservatory.com\/?post_type=question&p=13021"},"modified":"2021-07-02T09:58:48","modified_gmt":"2021-07-02T08:58:48","slug":"safety-in-numbers","status":"publish","type":"question","link":"https:\/\/www.economicsobservatory.com\/test\/safety-in-numbers","title":{"rendered":"Safety in numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Three billion Covid-19 vaccine doses had been administered around the world as of the start of this week, according to Our World in Data<\/a>. The first half billion took 114 days to roll out; the most recent half billion just 13 days. These are promising numbers and represent staggering progress in both medical technology and public health infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the virus continues to threaten lives and livelihoods globally. Here in the UK, as cases are back on the rise, debate has returned about whether social distancing measures should be fully lifted on 19 July \u2013 the delayed \u2018freedom day\u2019. Indeed, the UK\u2019s new health secretary, Sajid Javid has been bullish in his vision for ending restrictions, telling colleagues he sees \u2018no reason<\/a>\u2019 to extend measures beyond the proposed date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For many people who would ordinarily be working at live events, such as musical festivals or nightclubs, lifting the rules is critical. But others fear that re-opening too early will come back to haunt us, and the country will again be forced to batten down the hatches come the autumn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the global vaccine data certainly offer a reason to be cautiously optimistic, it is important that UK policy-makers continue to look beyond our borders before declaring the pandemic over. A recent statement<\/a> by the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) reiterated that \u2018no-one is safe until we are all safe\u2019. For the Commission, vaccinating everyone everywhere<\/em> is a \u2018humanitarian imperative\u2019 and the global recovery \u2013 both in terms of public health and the economy \u2013 depends critically on doing so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lockdown vulnerability<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

With this in mind, here at the Economics Observatory we have focused on the impact of Covid-19 in developing countries. On Tuesday, Vimal Balasubramaniam (Queen Mary, University of London), Louiza Bartzoka, Tarun Ramadorai (both Imperial College London) and Cristian Badarinza (National University of Singapore) explored the effects of the pandemic on household finances in emerging economies<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They explain that since the cost of government borrowing is substantially higher in developing economies, the state has less capacity to offer income support to people unable to work during lockdown. Germany, Switzerland and the UK can all borrow at virtually zero cost, whereas the rates on debt are 6% in India, 7% in Mexico and 9% in Brazil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are large shares of financially vulnerable households in these countries, which also makes their resilience to shocks such as Covid-19 all the more precarious. The authors highlight that without state support or the buffer of savings to fall back on, income loss could push two-thirds of households in developing economies into significant hardship. Ensuring vaccines are rolled out effectively around the world is one way to help combat this issue, as it could help these regions to re-open their economies sooner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1: Financial vulnerability in the face of income shocks<\/h4>\n\n\n
\n
<\/div>\n\n