{"id":10206,"date":"2021-02-19T14:05:42","date_gmt":"2021-02-19T14:05:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.economicsobservatory.com\/?post_type=question&p=10206"},"modified":"2021-02-19T14:05:43","modified_gmt":"2021-02-19T14:05:43","slug":"what-comes-next","status":"publish","type":"question","link":"https:\/\/www.economicsobservatory.com\/test\/what-comes-next","title":{"rendered":"What comes next?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Newsletter from 19 February 2021<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 16 million people have received a first vaccination dose for Covid-19, and it seems likely that the UK\u2019s schools will re-open not too long after the half-term holidays. So perhaps now is a good time to look up from our immediate health and economic concerns, and think about what comes next. Can we really just go back to life as normal \u2013 or is it time to deliver on the widely expressed hope of \u2018building back better\u2019<\/a>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a recurring theme in the latest contributions to the Economics Observatory. Indeed, a longer-term perspective on coronavirus and the economy is what we\u2019ve tried to provide ever since our launch back in June last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To answer some of the big questions we face, our writers have drawn on evidence from past crises to explore the future of cities<\/a> with so many of us working from home<\/a>; how we can balance the need to promote environmental sustainability<\/a> with the desire for economic recovery<\/a>; and whether the collective financial hit<\/a> will make us care more or less about the wellbeing of others<\/a>. This week, we\u2019ve come back to each of these topics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sound of the suburbs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In the early days of lockdown, it felt like the switch to remote working for millions of people would only be temporary. Now, almost a year on, could there be a more permanent shift on the horizon? And if so, what does that mean for patterns of \u2018economic geography\u2019 \u2013 the balance between where people live, work and spend? And how might this affect city centres, suburbs and the countryside?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s what Gianni De Fraja, Jesse Matheson and James Rockey have been exploring with a measure they call \u2018zoomshock\u2019<\/a> \u2013 the net inflow or outflow of workers into small geographical areas (nearly 1,000 in the case of London) \u2013 and what that means for local businesses that ordinarily serve incoming commuters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In places like the City of London, which has experienced a huge negative zoomshock, it\u2019s been very bad news for shops<\/a>, restaurants<\/a> and gyms<\/a>. But while there could be substantial job losses for such businesses in city centres, there is potential for growth and new establishments in other areas like the suburbs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zoomshock for Greater London, by MSOA and borough<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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Source: Authors' calculation based on data from the ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings<\/em>, 2017, 2018, 2019<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

The longer-term consequences will naturally depend on whether workers go back to their offices. But the \u2018forced experimentation\u2019 with remote working of the past year has shaken up how both staff and employers think about the workplace, and permanent changes seem likely. Mass commutes on a daily basis may well be a thing of the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Warm glow<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The move to working from home is what researchers refer to as a natural experiment: it\u2019s happening in the real world, now let\u2019s see what we can learn from it. But laboratory experiments can also help us understand human behaviour and its possible consequences. In their Observatory piece, Alexandra Baier, Esther Blanco and Natalie Struwe outline what we know about \u2018warm glow\u2019<\/a> \u2013 the extent to which people care about others and feel good about doing good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Top donation cause areas by percentage of total donations (2016-2019)<\/h4>\n\n\n
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