Economics Observatory | Questions and answers about coronavirus and the UK economy

How is China’s economy faring?

China’s economy has suffered from slow consumer spending and a slump in the real estate market. The unpredictable trade war with the United States risks further economic problems, but the current pause in tariff increases plus persistent stimulus from Beijing are keeping the worst outcomes at bay.

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Trade & supply chains

How might the UK’s relations with China evolve?

The new UK government is pursuing an approach towards China that promotes cooperation but challenge where needed. While increased trade with the world’s second biggest economy may bring benefits, economic opportunities with the European Union and the United States are likely to be greater.

DATA HUB

Job vacancies in the UK

How will the recent changes to National Insurance Contributions and Living Wage impact jobs in the UK?

The number of vacancies is one useful yardstick. Last month, there was a 3% drop, the sharpest decline in the past two years.
Monthly numbers can bounce around so this may be a blip, but it’s a blip worth monitoring.

Click on the chart to read the ECO newsletter on jobs and pay.

Productivity & growth

The UK’s productivity gap: what did it look like twenty years ago?

How to boost UK productivity growth has long been a central concern of economic researchers and policy-makers. A report written twenty years ago highlights the continuing challenges of achieving that ambition, including the key roles of competition, investment, skills, innovation and technology.

MAGAZINE

Read the latest edition of our magazine here

UK inflation has risen sharply, with higher household utility bills driving the largest increase since October 2022. This month’s data release is also the first since higher minimum wages and national insurance contributions came into effect, putting pressure on employers’ labour costs.

Schools, universities & training

The Cardiff crisis of the 1980s: what lessons for UK universities today?

A dire financial position at University College, Cardiff in the 1980s required an emergency response from the highest levels of UK government. Now, four decades on, Cardiff University and many other higher education institutions face a similar crisis – and may also require some kind of rescue.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

Job opportunities for refugees: how can host countries help?

People who are refugees typically have worse employment prospects than the rest of the population, including other migrant groups. Targeted policies can help: speeding up application decisions, supporting access to work, improving job matching and providing language and mental health support.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

What’s happening with UK wages and employment?

The latest labour market data show that the UK unemployment rate has increased slightly after a period of stability, while wage growth has eased. Vacancies are declining steadily, having recently fallen below pre-pandemic levels. Redundancies have stopped rising in the last two months.

Productivity & growth

What are the short-term prospects for UK economic growth?

UK GDP grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025 – its strongest quarterly rise in a year. But while the country is currently outpacing its G7 peers and despite a partial agreement with the United States on tariffs, growth over the full year is expected to slow due to mounting global trade tensions.

Health, physical & mental

What are the lingering effects of the pandemic on young people’s wellbeing?

The social restrictions and disrupted educational experiences resulting from Covid-19 have had a negative impact on many young people’s mental health. The damage to wellbeing has been more persistent in certain groups, particularly among girls and those who identify as non-binary.

Recession & recovery

How can macroeconomic forecasting in the UK be enhanced?

Technological advances such as machine learning and big data models can improve our understanding of current economic conditions. Nowcasting models bridge the data gap between statistical releases, helping to identify trends in real time and allowing more accurate and timely policy measures.

Nations, regions & cities

What do the UK’s high streets reveal about regional inequality?

UK high streets vary in both range and affordability. From Greggs’ national footprint to the dominance of Pret A Manger in London, the location and prices of different shops reveal the country’s economic, political and cultural divides.

Prices & interest rates

What’s happening to the cost of rent in the United States?

Americans faced surging rental costs in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic. Since then, the cities and regions that have built the most houses have managed to bring prices under control. But in places where housing supply remains low, rents have continued to spiral.

Energy & climate change

How could US foreign aid cuts affect global public health?

The United States has announced deep cuts to its foreign aid programmes, including pausing activity at the country’s main federal aid agency. This is likely to increase the spread of infectious diseases in lower-income countries, as well as magnifying global economic and geopolitical instability.

Energy & climate change

The global water crisis: what is the right policy response?

Freshwater is essential for human life and economic activity. But rising demand and reduced supply threatens access to water for billions of people. Rethinking pricing and investing in efficiency are essential for policy-makers to address this global challenge.

All Answers